Friday 23rd October
Thursday was a very pleasant, sunny day with a light breeze ahead of Storm Austen that resulted in a high of 14.1C, which was just 0.8C below average. The advance cloud associated with Storm Austen began to build late afternoon with the first rain arriving minutes before 21.00 and continuing throughout the night, stopping just after 07.30. The daily rainfall total was 23.8mm that took the monthly total to 86.0mm compared to my 43-year record of 90.0mm. Due to the heavy cloud cover, that minimised loss of warmth into the atmosphere, a minimum of 10.0C was logged at 01.51 being 2.3C above average.
The approach of Storm Austen, from the western approaches, with its low centre of pressure saw the local barometric pressure fall rapidly all evening. The highest barometric pressure all day was 1010.6mb at 13.28. At 19.30 the pressure was falling at a modest rate of 1mb/hr. However, this increased rapidly as by 21.00 the rate was very high at 4.1mb/hr, then 5.2mb/hr at 22.00 and 6.0mb/hr at 23.00 finally an extreme fall of 6.3mb/hr at 23.30.
The lowest barometric pressure due to Storm Austen was 987.9mb, which occurred today at 06.27. This was the lowest pressure since 8th January 2026.
The start to Friday revealed total cloud cover and a very light breeze, being on the northern edge of the storm whose centre at 08.00 was mid-Channel, south of Sussex. As the storm exits right towards the North Sea and then Scandinavia, the wind will increase significantly from the western edges of the low pressure due to a very steep pressure gradient. This will be combined with substantial rainfall, forecast to arrive around 11.00, at which time the wind will begin to pick up noticeably with a stormy afternoon ahead. The wind has already made a significant change in direction from the southwesterly breeze yesterday morning, to north this morning, and then northwest as the day progresses due to the centre of the depression relocating eastwards.
We wait months for a substantial fall of rain from a storm and then three arrive within days. Storm Boelo arrives tomorrow with its centre over Scotland that will bring us another spell of wet and windy weather but not so severe as from Storm Austen. Looking ahead, the forecast pressure charts indicate a third, deep area of low pressure will head towards Scotland by Monday that will bring us another breezy day with modest rainfall. However, Sunday will be such a welcome contrast between the storms with a dry and fine day although the wind will be strong again.
Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Alex Burkill, said: “Storm Austen will rapidly deepen as it approaches the UK, undergoing a process known as explosive cyclogenesis. Its central pressure is expected to fall by at least 24 hectopascals (mb) in 24 hours, making it what’s sometimes called a ‘weather bomb’.
“The most rapid deepening is expected during Thursday. As Storm Austen gets closer to the UK, it will reach maturity, meaning it will remain a deep area of low pressure but will no longer be strengthening at the same rate.”
Why is Storm Austen deepening so quickly?
Storm Austen is expected to deepen rapidly as it approaches the UK. The low-pressure system will cross the jet stream and move into an area known as the left exit region, where atmospheric conditions can support rapid development.
Forecast guidance shows the central pressure potentially falling by at least 24 hectopascals (mb) within 24 hours. This process is known as explosive cyclogenesis and is sometimes described as a “weather bomb”. The most intense features of a low-pressure system often develop during this period of rapid deepening.