Author: Eric Gilbert

Monday 9th February
Although there was no heavy rain on Sunday morning it was a miserable, gloomy and damp day with light precipitation falling after midday amounting t0 7.6mm. The past night was dry. The temperature rose gradually from 7.6C to 9.2C by 12.00, thanks to a brief bright period just before 11.00, but fell away as the rain and thicker cloud arrived at 12.00.The breeze also rose during the morning with a maximum gust of 12 before light and then calm after 02.00. Yet again the diurnal range of temperatures was minimal with a maximum of 9.6C at 11.14, during a bright period, and a low of 7.2C at 00.22 early Monday, a variation of just 2.4C.

Monday dawned dull and gloomy under the constant cloud cover that will bring a band of rain across the area late afternoon.

With more rain forecast for this coming week, England’s Environment Agency stated yesterday that there are 89 flood warnings (where flooding is expected) and 232 flood alerts where flooding is possible) active across England. Dozens of Red warnings are in place for Somerset and Dorset.

There is growing confidence that the recent weather pattern that has been in a rut for three weeks will shortly change as the high pressure that has been resident to the east moves away on Wednesday. This will mean temperatures drop by Friday and Saturday to around or just below average, but likely be drier.

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Sunday 8th February
Saturday brought us another mild and moist day but far less rain than recent days. The total of 2.0mm fell briefly after 08.00 and again late afternoon. The monthly total now stands at 56.3mm being 83% of my 42-year record. There was a repeat of the continuous cloud cover of recent days that minimised the variation in temperature between day and night with a maximum of 10.6, being 2.3C above average, and a minimum of 7.2C, being a significant 5.3C above average.

Sunday arrived with the cloud once again thick and low with the cloud base draping the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest. The first week in February has produced rainfall every day and today is no exception with light rain arriving mid-morning. At the moment the radar indicates that the weather front is fragmented and less intense.

There are distinct signs that the recent battle between the high pressure to the east and successive low-pressure systems arriving from the west is about to change with the anticyclone moving away. The wind will continue from a southerly quadrant until Wednesday when it is likely to veer into the southwest then west before a significant change to come from the north by the end of the week. That will herald the arrival of cooler weather with temperatures dipping below average but likely drier conditions.

Saturday 7th February
There were three periods of rain during the past twenty-four hours. It became drier just after 10.00 until mid-afternoon on Friday, when it returned for almost four hours then began again just before 06.00 early Saturday. This added another 17.2mm to the monthly total now standing at 54.4mm. There was not a great variation between the maximum of 10.5C at 13.03, during the brighter period, and the minimum of 6.7C at 23.18, the extremes being 2.2C and 4.8C above average respectively. The significant weather feature was the minimal air movement during daylight hours, a movement of just 7mph at the highest. However, the breeze picked up a little during the early hours with a peak gust of 15mph at 03.37.

The new day on Saturday began with thick cloud producing more rain under gloomy conditions as another arc of cloud, associated with the depression, crossed our area. The wind has now veered a little to come from the south today and over the weekend. This will bring slightly warmer air, drafted up from around the Bay of Biscay before travelling around the southern edge of one, then two areas of low pressure on Sunday.

The weather pattern has been in a rut since the middle of January and will continue to do so well into next week. However, there are signs that the resident high pressure to the northeast will begin to relocate further east by mid-week that would allow the areas of low-pressure to also migrate further east over the Continent. However, this will not significantly change our weather as we will still be under variable cloud with limited sunshine, although mild for early February.

Friday 6th February
There is no difference, the low-pressure systems continue to be driven across the Atlantic arriving over the UK and then stalling against the resident anticyclone to the east, before heading north. Thursday was a typical day under thick cloud all day and almost continuous rain. The automatic rain gauge record showed that rain had fallen during every hour over the past-twenty-four hours amounting to 19.4mm, which took the monthly total to 42.8mm, already 57% of my 42-year February record after just five days in the month.

There was little variation in the temperature all day and through the night having started at 5.8C, rose to a peak of 8.0C at 15.04 and then hovered around that temperature all night. Thus a diurnal range of just 2.2C.

After first light on Friday, there wasn’t much light, under dull and gloomy conditions, as the rain continued to fall. The rain will be persistent for much of the morning and ease during the afternoon. The mild, cloudy conditions are forecast to continue well into next week with no severe weather foreseen at this time.

Marlborough has endured 224mm of precipitation since the start of the new year. Both the River Og and River Kennet are running high although still below the top of the normal range, rising very little over the past four days. The River Kennet is still 0.2m below the top of its normal image and the River Og 0.4m below the top of its normal range. The answer can be found when looking at the record of ground water in the local Thames Water catchment area. We have just survived a very hot and dry summer when there were water restrictions under drought conditions, as a result the level of water in the aquifers dropped significantly. During the past five days the water level at the borehole just to the south of Marlborough has risen almost 1m a day and is still 2m below the top of the normal range. Whilst the borehole to the north of Marlborough has been rising at a lower rate of almost 0.2m each day and is also approximately 2m below the top of its normal image.

Whatever the summer brings in terms of rainfall, at least the local aquifers are filling, though some way to go before full. The water meadows have been filling up for the past three days or so. There is a rule of thumb that much of the rainfall that falls after from April and into the summer, evaporates into the atmosphere, thus little percolates into the ground.

Thursday 5th February
Wednesday began bright and improved as the morning progressed with substantial amounts of sunshine between variable cloud, especially around noon. It was the warmest day for a week with a maximum of 9.9C logged at 13.49 being 1.6C above average. It was a dry day and under the very welcome sunshine the UV level peaked at 0.9, the highest since 2nd November. The sunshine, not very strong in February but very welcome, produced a peak solar radiation of 468W/m2 at 12.28, almost five tines the strength as occurred on the 2nd under the thick cloud cover.

Cloud was observed beginning to build just before dusk as the next depression approached the UK that then thickened and gave us a mild night that saw the thermometer log a minimum of 5.8C at 06.22 being 3.8C above average.

Sadly, the start to Thursday revealed that the rain had returned and had began just before 07.00, light in nature, but more will arrive as the morning progresses.

The forecast charts indicate that once again a low-pressure system has arrived from the Atlantic and has come against the high pressure to the east. It will hover just to the west of the UK and Ireland for the next few days, so back to cloud and intermittent rain, perhaps less than earlier in the week, from Friday. The weekend at the moment looks warmer with light rain on Saturday and drier on Sunday as the depression eases northwards with the air stream veering towards the south.

The images of the ground covered in a carpet of snowdrops are still from Welford Park, near Newbury, a family home for over 400 years. It was once the site of a monastery until the dissolution of the monasteries in 1536, then turned to a deer-hunting lodge for Henry VIII.