Author: Eric Gilbert

The welcome sunshine on Wednesday morning lasted until late afternoon, through times of variable cloud, that pushed the thermometer to reach a high of 17.0C at 14.51, which was again well above my long-term average at + 6.3C. It was the 22nd dry day this month with the UV level again rising at its peak up to the ‘Moderate’ category.

Overnight saw the thermometer slowly slide downwards to reach a low of 1.9C at 04.04. Around that time, looking at the cloud radar from that time, thin cloud and then thicker cloud drifted across from the east, as a result the temperature began to slowly recover and the humidity increase so that by 08.00 the thermometer read 8.1C.

Thursday revealed a totally cloudy sky with calm conditions.

The high pressure is stable at the moment, recently acting as a blocking high, but as the afternoon progresses, and overnight, it will slowly fall as it gives way to a depression, that by this time tomorrow will have developed just to the north of Scotland. The low pressure system will throw a couple of cold fronts down across the country that are likely to produce the first rain since the 23rd and cooler conditions. We will see by tomorrow if the additional rainfall will push the 2025 March rainfall total above the 2011 record low?

I recently came across the following news item. We will see if the future provides a more accurate weather forecast.

Aardvark Weather, a new Ai model developed by researchers in the UK and Canada, could mark a turning point in global weather forecasting by replacing traditional weather simulations with artificial intelligence to maximise cost efficiency and accuracy.

Unlike conventional forecasting tools that simulate atmospheric physics through complex equations, Aardvark Weather is a ‘deep learning’ model that generates global forecasts for wind, humidity and temperature at multiple pressure levels.

They state “By making these components more efficient, Aardvark could run forecasts more often and at higher resolutions, improving speed and accuracy”.

They comment that “Aardvark can generate a full global forecast in just one second compared to the many hours needed by older models, which would result in a drastic reduction in computing requirements”.

The evidence that the sun is getting stronger was in the UV level on Tuesday, during the strong sunshine periods, when the peak level was 4.4, logged at 12.21. This high was at the top end of the ‘Moderate’ level and the highest since 17th September. The thermometer reached a maximum of 16.1C at 14.23 being 5.4C above my long-term average whilst under clearing skies the temperature dipped away to a low 3.9C at 03.47 early Wednesday. The radar showed cloud drifting in and mist developing after 05.30 early Wednesday that allowed the temperature to rise to 8.3C by 08.00, helped by short bursts of strong sunshine through the variable early morning cloud.

By 08.00 on Wednesday the cloud had began to show larger areas of thin cloud and greater breaks, that allowed more sunshine to break through. The ridge of high pressure has developed further, which is likely to mean a dry day, having risen another 4mb since Tuesday with a reading of 1026.0mb at 08.00. With the high pressure dominant today the breeze should be light again, yesterday there was a maximum movement, couldn’t call it a gust, of just 10mph, most of the time the anemometer just slowly rotated.

The centre of the high pressure is currently off the east coast of the UK, as a result of this relocation the wind will back from northeast to southwest as the morning progresses. We have not seen an air stream from the southwest since the 5th, a much warmer direction than from the northeast.

After a cloudy morning on Monday the cloud began to thin after 13.00 with breaks of welcome sunshine as the afternoon progressed. This late improvement was shown by the maximum temperature of 12.6C being the lowest for a week, but still 1.9C above the long-term average, and logged late in the afternoon at 17.01. The UV level usually maxes around midday, say 12.30 until next week after the hour changes, so a late peak of 2.7 at 13.47 was not surprising and back to the ‘Low’ category.

During the evening under clear skies, the warmth quickly dissipated into the atmosphere to produce a minimum of 3.3C that was reached at 22.00 with it hovering around that figure until just after 01.00. After this time, tracing back time on the cloud radar, showed light variable cloud descending from the northwest that then thickened and limited visibility to 500m after dawn. By 07.00 there was evidence of the sun having risen so by 07.30 the bulk of the moisture had melted away to leave misty conditions.

Tuesday saw welcome, strong sunshine after 07.30, that had lifted the thermometer to 6.9C by 08.00. However, sadly, the next couple hours will be the best part of the day as the radar shows an area of variable cloud bearing down on our region, just to the north of Swindon at 08.20, from the northwest with the outside chance of light precipitation. The cloud is associated with two weather fronts, a warm front followed quickly by a cold front, that will be over our area around midday, which will see the wind back into the northwest for much of the day.

I wonder if March 2024 will be the driest I have recorded since this station was set up in 1984? The total rainfall to date is just 5.2mm. Analysing my records I see that the driest March was in 2011 with just 12.7mm followed then by the second driest with 15.6mm in 1997. The anticyclone has thrown a ridge of high pressure over the UK that will minimise any precipitation today and is likely to mean the next few days will be dry.

Up to and including yesterday, there was a loss of equivalent rainfall through evaporation from ground sources and plant life, a total of 35.7mm, so to date there is a deficit of 30mm for this month.

Sunday gave us another above average day with a maximum of 14.8C at 13.26, being +4.1C, before the cloud thickened. This peak was exactly the same as logged on Saturday. A small area of thicker cloud crossed southern England in the middle of the afternoon, with light rain at 14.55 and another just before 21.00, amounting to 0.8mm. The past night was also above average at +3.0C logged at 06.34 early Monday.

Monday after dawn revealed a sky with total cloud cover that had drifted in from the North Sea and produced misty conditions.

The depression is giving way to the anticyclone in the eastern Atlantic that will begin to influence our weather later today as the wind, currently coming from the north-northeast, backs into the west later this afternoon. The forecast for the jet steam track over the next few days indicates that high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the coming week.

The Met Office have recently put out a press release that an employee has just completed a pioneering achievement to be the first person to complete an apprenticeship in Digital Accessibility in the world. They say that “Weather and climate information is important for everyone, playing a role in keeping people safe. Work in this area involves ensuring that information on all of our platforms such as website, app and social media, can be accessed and understood by the widest possible audience, regardless of whether people have a visual, hearing, speech, motor, cognitive or other combination of impairments.”

They go on to state that “The use of colour to convey information, is an example of an area that has been worked on.” Understanding how people see the identical colour differently “means that we should radically change how colour is used to convey information”.

The predominantly cloudy skies on Saturday, with occasional bright intervals, meant the maximum of 14.8C, logged at 13.40, made it the coolest day since the 18th, however, it was still significantly above average with +4.1C. Likewise, the past night was much cooler that saw the thermometer drop to 6.1C, logged at 06.17 before the sun got to work, which was also well above my long-term average with +3.4C.

Although much of southern England was under a large area of cloud on Sunday morning, there was a small hole of thin cloud over central southern England that gave us a very welcome sunny start to the new day. This boost of sunshine lifted the thermometer to 9.0C by 08.00. However, the radar shows a large bank of cloud quite close to southeastern Britain, with heavy showers and possible lightning, that might drift closer later this afternoon. There is a noticeable shift in wind direction today with the breeze having backed from the southeast over the past four days to come from the north, but thankfully light in strength.

France is not keeping the recent depression to itself, currently lurking over Brittany and still throwing banks of cloud over the UK and will likely dominate for much of Sunday. However, the outlook is for this low pressure system to slowly fill as a ridge of high pressure asserts itself on Tuesday. The barometric pressure has already started to slowly rise, up 3mb since yesterday.

The general view is that the soil temperature needs to be at a minimum of 7C or 8C before seeds in the soil can germinate. I think gardeners will begin to have thoughts of planting for the new season this coming week as the soil temperature at a depth of 6cm read at 08.00, was logged at 9.2C, 8.9C and 8.8C for the past three days respectively. The forecast for the coming few days is for it to be a little cooler but still above average by day also, at the moment, no overnight frosts are thought likely. I noticed this morning that a few sweet pea seeds that I planted optimistically some three weeks ago, in a sheltered small area, have started to throw the first shoots above ground.

Update at 08.45. The radar shows the cloud encroaching over our area from the north and southeast, an unusual scissors movement, with the sun now being blocked out.

I will include the daffodil image again as they are currently at their best but any heavy rain and strong winds will spoil them. Some of mine were close to the ground after the rain on Friday evening.