Author: Eric Gilbert

Wednesday 16th September
The narrow band of rain that passed over our area just after 09.00 on Tuesday morning had become fragmented on its journey and only produced very light drizzle and a few drops of light rain that did not even wet the pavement, thus recorded as a trace. As the morning progressed, the sun came out and by 14.33 the temperature had peaked at 21.7C, which was 2.7C above average. Due to the clear skies and cooler air stream the temperature dropped away to a low of 9.1C at 06.54, just after sunrise in Marlborough at 06.43. This low was 0.4C below average.

Wednesday arrived with glorious sunshine to start the day, however, it won’t last. Although there is a minor ridge of high pressure edging across the country, a large bank of cloud can be seen on the radar edging down from the northwest that will likely obliterate the sun for much of the day. Hopefully it might thin later in the afternoon to allow a little brightness to close the day. At 08.35 the first sign of cloud edging closer could be seen on the northwest horizon.

The air movement will be from the west for much of the day on Wednesday. This will mean the maximum temperature will likely be below average due to the cloud cover and cooler air stream. The forecast pressure charts indicate that a weather front is likely to arrive early Thursday morning, with a brief period of precipitation, but at the moment it is not thought it will produce prolonged heavy rain. As that cold front clears the rest of the day should bring sunny intervals. Friday, at the moment appears to be devoid of any weather fronts so a dry day with sunny intervals is likely but as evening approaches the forecast pressure charts indicate cloud and further weather fronts arriving as the ridge of high pressure gives way and the two depression to the northwest begin to dominate before the high pushes back again over the weekend that will see temperatures begin to return to around the September average.

What does the latest long-range (30-day) forecast show?

The latest Met Office long-range forecast suggests a generally changeable pattern through the remainder of September and into early October, there will also be spells of drier and more settled weather, especially in the south. Towards the end of September, high pressure may become more influential, bringing a greater chance of settled conditions for a time.

Temperatures are expected to be close to average overall through the remainder of September, with some rather warm days possible, before becoming slightly above average into early October.

At longer lead times, confidence inevitably decreases. As day-to-day weather variations become increasingly less predictable, forecasts focus on broader trends rather than specifics.

This is why long-range outlooks describe potential patterns and probabilities for a month or three-month period rather than exact conditions for a particular day or location.

What does this mean for the UK autumn?

The developing El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through autumn before reaching its peak during winter, and the Met Office will continue to monitor how it interacts with other climate drivers over the coming weeks and months.

Current evidence indicates an increased likelihood of wet, windy and potentially stormy conditions later this autumn and into early winter. This signal is reflected not only in our understanding of El Niño, but also in seasonal prediction models and other large-scale climate drivers.

However, while seasonal forecasts can identify shifts in the likelihood of particular weather patterns, they cannot determine exactly when or where individual weather events will occur.

This means we can assess the chances of a wetter, windier autumn and early winter overall, but it remains too early to identify any specific impacts for particular parts of the UK.

Tuesday 15th September
After an overcast and damp morning on Monday with light drizzle, the afternoon was very pleasant and warm with strong sunshine that lifted the temperature to a maximum of 24.1C, which was 5.1C above average. The last of the flow of warm air overnight gave us another mild night that saw the thermometer not drop below a minimum of 15.6C, unusually late in the early morning at 07.16, which was 45 minutes after the official sunrise time of 06.41 in Marlborough.

After a cloudy start to the new day on Tuesday there was brief sunshine until around 08.15 when cloud drifted across from the west, obliterating the sun, thanks to the arrival of a weather front. The rain radar indicates a narrow band of rain from the first weather front that might produce short lived precipitation from around 09.00.

The two cold fronts are crossing the country today with their associated cloud, but hopefully later in the morning or early afternoon the cloud will thin and break up allowing the sun to break through. The wind will make a subtle change in direction from the recent southwesterly, which was mild and moist, to west then northwest as the day progresses. This slight change in direction will bring us a cooler and dryer airstream today, hence the name cold front, with maxima around or just below average for the rest of the working week before it rises again over the weekend.

Wednesday will see a temporary ridge of high pressure push back across the country that will bring us a day of sunny intervals.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist, lan Lisk, said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.

“However, El Niño is only one of several factors affecting the UK’s weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.

‘We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.”
What does the latest long-range (30-day) forecast show?

The latest Met Office long-range forecast suggests a generally changeable pattern through the remainder of September and into early October, there will also be spells of drier and more settled weather, especially in the south. Towards the end of September, high pressure may become more influential, bringing a greater chance of settled conditions for a time.

Temperatures are expected to be close to average overall through the remainder of September, with some rather warm days possible, before becoming slightly above average into early October.

At longer lead times, confidence inevitably decreases. As day-to-day weather variations become increasingly less predictable, forecasts focus on broader trends rather than specifics.

This is why long-range outlooks describe potential patterns and probabilities for a month or three-month period rather than exact conditions for a particular day or location.

Monday 14th September
The meandering and loitering weather front on Sunday produced a damp day from the very moist air stream and regular banks of drizzle or light rain passing overhead that produced just 1.6mm of precipitation. The warm, southwesterly air stream meant not only a damp day but a relatively warm day as the thermometer reached a maximum of 20.3C at 15.51, which was 1.3C above average. The past night was mild due to the continuing cloud cover and warm air stream as the thermometer did not drop below 16.9C, logged at 01.55, which was a significant 7.4C above average.

Monday dawned dull with the cloud base still low from a wiggling weather front that will be slow to move away, which means another overcast day with little likelihood of any sunshine and possible light precipitation late morning. By 08.00 the thermometer had risen just a little to read 17.7C.

Today will be the warmest day all week and probably all month under the continuing flow of warm air from the Atlantic on a southwesterly air stream. As we move into Tuesday the wind will make a subtle change from southwest to west, a slightly cooler airstream that by Wednesday will arrive from south of Iceland on a west-northwest air flow, resulting in temperatures for the rest of the week not rising above average.

The forecast pressure charts indicate that by Thursday we should expect a warm front to arrive containing more cloud and possible precipitation as the wind will back into the southwest again, returning to a warmer air flow.

What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn?

Author: Met Office
Fri, 11 Sep 2026

As we have moved into meteorological autumn, many are asking what the coming months might have in store for UK weather.

Alongside increased interest in what is likely to be a record-breaking El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, the latest Met Office seasonal outlook suggests an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions during autumn.

While seasonal forecasting cannot predict exactly what the weather will do on any given day, current evidence suggests conditions later this autumn and into early winter may be more unsettled than is typical for the time of year.

What does the three-month outlook tell us?

The latest Met Office 3-Month Outlook indicates the chances of a warm and wet autumn for the UK are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than would normally be expected. An increased likelihood of windy conditions also emerges later in the season.

The Met Office 3-Month Outlook provides guidance on how likely conditions are to differ from what would normally be expected for the season, rather than predicting specific weather events. Seasonal outlooks are designed to indicate changes in risk at a national scale rather than predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather may occur.

It is important to stress that seasonal outlooks cannot predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather will occur, nor do they forecast the number of storms, wet days or severe weather events that may develop.
This remains an emerging and cutting-edge area of science and, while forecasting skill is continually improving, seasonal outlooks allow us to understand changes in risk and likelihood rather than provide certainty months in advance. As confidence in the seasonal outlook evolves, the Met Office will continue to assess the situation.

This continues tomorrow

Sunday 13th September
The sun broke through late morning on Saturday that was very strong in the afternoon, which boosted the temperature to a maximum of 22.9C at 15.56, being 3.9C above average. It was another dry day with the UV level at the top end of the Medium category.

The cloud from the next weather front arrived during the evening and thickened overnight that gave us a very mild night with a minimum of 17.4C, which was a significant 7.9C above my long-term average. It was the second warmest night after 17.6C was logged on the morning of the 3rd.

After first light on Sunday it was evident the trailing arm of the weather front, a warm front, had arrived as the cloud base was very low, draping the tops of the Marlborough Downs. At 07.00 the visibility noticeably worsened as drizzle, then very light rain arrived, that had ceased by 07.30 and amounted to just 0.2mm. There might be more light precipitation this morning, but if so it will be drizzle or very, short lived light rain, as the weather front is very slow moving. The radar indicates that there is broken, showery cloud heading eastwards from Wales at the moment, that might impact our area later in the morning.

We have a warm, cloudy day ahead thanks to the flow of moist air off the Atlantic, brought on a westerly air stream, and the cloud from the back edge of the slow moving weather front. The high pressure to the southwest is still holding off any forward movement from the Atlantic depression to the north of the country.

By late Tuesday the high pressure will have migrated eastwards, over the Continent, that will allow the depression to edge closer. The slight change in position will see the wind veer more into the west-northwest or northwest, a cooler direction, hence the temperature is likely to drop back below average from Wednesday.

Simon King
Lead Met Office Weather Presenter

A new hurricane season record is likely to be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic.

To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average – and there’s no sign of development in the near future.

It means a new record is likely to be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming.

Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013.

In an average season, there would have been eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes by this point.

This year, however, there have only been five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.
With few indications that there will be any development in the next week, this will mean the longest stretch into in a season where no hurricane has formed in the modern satellite era.

Saturday 12th September
The sun was very strong on Friday, especially during the afternoon, that pushed the temperature to a maximum of 22.3C at 15.15, which was 3.3C above average. With calm conditions since midnight until just after dawn, and a clear sky, it was not surprising to find the past night was cool that produced a minimum of 8.4C at 04.43, being 1.1C below average.

Saturday arrived with variable thin high cloud to the east. However, the first signs of the approaching bank of cloud could be seen arriving from the west that will blot out the sun later in the morning and for the rest of the day.

The high pressure to the south is trying to hold back weather fronts arriving from the north, however, as the day progresses a cold front is forecast to drift down across the country bringing thicker cloud that might produce a little precipitation early Sunday morning.

As Monday turns into Tuesday the recent depression to the north is forecast to drift away over Scandinavia that will allow a ridge of high pressure to push northwards, to the west of the UK. This will result in a significant change in wind direction, veering from a southwesterly quadrant, warm and moist, to northwest, which will usher in a cooler and drier air stream with temperatures dropping back to around or just below the September average. There appears to be little, if any, possible rainfall throughout next week, a week of sunny intervals and variable cloud.