Author: Eric Gilbert

Tuesday 11th November
The mild spell continued on Monday although the maximum temperature has been dropping of late with a maximum of 11.6C at 08.00. The thermometer hovered around 11.5C during daylight hours, thanks to the very thick cloud associated with a weather front, that produced another 19.6mm of precipitation. We have had a night of two parts. As the cloud eased away late evening the temperature began to drop with a minimum 6.7C just before midnight at 23.53, before cloud began to drift back again and the thermometer to make an about turn as the temperature began to recover.

The last few days have seen the very warm weather begin to slip away with maxima of 16.6C, 14.7C, 14.4C, 13.1C and 11.6C respectively over the last five days.

Tuesday after first light revealed a sky with thin cloud that allowed some brightness but no sunshine. The wind continues from a relatively mild south. The thermometer had recovered to 11.6C by 08.00 after the low just before midnight.

For the next three days we will still be under the influence of low-pressure systems with associated weather fronts edging in from the Atlantic. Currently there is one to the southwest and another to the northwest.

By late Thursday we will begin to see a gradual change as high pressure begins to build over Iceland that will start to dominate our weather well into the following week. This significant change to our weather pattern will see maximum temperatures slowly fall over the weekend and, a shock to the system, low digit maxima throughout next week with possible night frosts.

Monday 10th November
Sunday was dull and gloomy under a persistent cloak of cloud that produced a few minor splashes of raindrops a couple of times during daylight hours, but not measurable. The steady and continuous rain arrived, light at first, just before 17.00 with a substantial fall between 02.30 and 03.00, with the last measurable rain just after 03.45. The total rainfall over the past twenty-four hours amounted to 29.0mm that took the monthly total to 41.0mm, just less than 50% of my 41-year average. It was the wettest day since 26th January when 31.4mm was recorded.

It was the ninth consecutive day with a maximum above average, the high of 13.1C was logged at 12.47 being +2.8C. The past night has again been mild that saw the thermometer fall no lower than 11.5C at 07.00 early Monday, which was a significant 7.5C above average.

The start to Monday was dull and gloomy with rain beginning to fall again just after 08.00.

This week will bring us more unsettled weather, this morning I counted five low pressure areas in the Atlantic, approaching the UK. The Atlantic drift of moist, relatively warm air will continue uo to Thursday, when during the evening the wind is forecast to make a significant change in direction, moving from a southwesterly quadrant to likely coming from the north east, heralding the beginning of a major change in our weather. By Sunday into the following week the temperatures will begin to drop significantly, close to or below average, heralding a much cooler period of weather.

Today marks 10 years since the Met Office named its first storm, Storm Abigail, launching a public-facing initiative that has since become a cornerstone of weather communication in the UK.

In the decade since, the Western Europe naming group – which includes the Met Office in the UK, Met Éireann in Ireland and KNMI in the Netherlands – have named a total of 70 storms, giving severe weather a clear identity for the media and public.

Will Lang, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said: “Ten years ago, Storm Abigail became the first UK storm to be named. Today, storm names are part of our national vocabulary.

“But storm naming is more than a label, it’s a public safety tool that makes severe weather easier to remember, talk about, and follow.

“We’ve named 70 storms since 2015, and each one helps communities prepare, keeps emergency services coordinated, and strengthens public awareness of severe weather risks.”

Sunday 9th November
Saturday was a glorious day with much warm sunshine and periods of calm or an occasional light breeze. The mild conditions continued with the thermometer reaching a high of 14.4C at 13.21 being 4.1C above average. Every day this month has brought an above average high temperature. Under a clear sky the temperature began to fall steadily as the evening approached reaching a minimum 2.8C at 01.30 before the temperature began to recover and slowly rise with a temperature of 8.0C at 08.00. This minimum made it the coldest night for a month.

Sunday arrived with just thin cloud cover that gave a bright start to the new day. However, the cloud will build during the morning as a weather front crosses the country after mid-day with rain likely arriving mid-afternoon and becoming heavy during the evening. After dawn fog could be seen to the northeast, over the tops of the trees on the high ground, and for a brief time radiation fog formed in the River Og valley.

The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 1015.6mb, the highest pressure all month, but already showing signs of falling. The situation will change as low pressure systems will be the dominating weather this coming week with sunshine and showers, with the latter predominant. The unsettled weather will come in from the Atlantic on a southerly changing to a westerly breeze by mid-week that will maintain the moist, warm air. However, a change is likely to arrive by the weekend to less warm conditions and a possible change in wind direction to come from a cool northeast.

Saturday 8th November
Although the cloudy conditions continued on Friday the temperature still climbed well above average, but not so warm as on Thursday, with a maximum of 14.7C at 12.37 being 4.4C above my long-term average. A weather front crossed the area during the late afternoon that produced rain for several hours that amounted to 4.6mm. The cloud cover continued overnight thus another very mild night as the thermometer did not drop below 9.3C. That low was another significantly below average temperature with 9.3C logged at 06.05 early Saturday.

Saturday after first light revealed a cloudy sky but by 07.30 brief breaks in the cloud cover were appearing. We will be under a transient ridge of high pressure today that will give us a fine, dry day with much welcome sunshine. The barometric pressure is rising fast as the ridge builds.

A weather front with associated rain is forecast to cross southern England Sunday afternoon.

The unsettled, but mild weather will continue into next week with temperatures by day and night likely to remain above average but not quite as high as enjoyed this past week. Various low-pressure systems will attempt to dominate our weather, simply sunshine and showers.

Friday 7th November
Thursday gave us a dry day but overcast with thick cloud that produced the lowest UV level since the middle of March with a reading of just 0.9. However, the stream of very warm, moist air continued that resulted in a very mild day with the thermometer rising to a peak 16.6C at 13.56. The high was 6.3C above average making it the warmest day since 8th October. The past night followed the recent trend of mild nights with the thermometer not dropping below 11.3C at 04.33 early Friday being a significant 7.3C above average.

Looking out after first light on Friday revealed very murky conditions with the cloud very low masking the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest, that at its lowest limited visibility to around 400m. However, after 07.30 conditions began to improve that by 08.00 had resulted in the cloud lifting significantly having almost completely cleared. The synoptic charts show a weather front moving across the country later today bringing possible light precipitation.

A transient ridge or nose of higher pressure will give us a drier and brighter day on Saturday. The jet stream forecast and thus the likely weather ahead will mean a modest drop in temperatures next week but likely still above average with the unsettled weather continuing.