Category: Commentary

Monday 8th December
The flow of very warm, moist air from around the region of the Azores, brought on a southwesterly breeze, continued on Sunday that meant once again very mild conditions. The thermometer rose to 13.7C at 14.23 as the cloud thinned, which was a significant 6.2C above my long-term average. There was broken cloud during the late evening that allowed the warmth to ease away minimally, but a minimum of 9.1C at 00.29 was 7.2C above average and significantly 1.6C above the average daytime maximum for December.

It was the warmest day and night this month. More precisely, it was the warmest day since 14th November and the warmest night since 15th November, exceptional warmth for December.

Monday struggled to come alive under a blanket of thick cloud so a gloomy start to the new day, the thermometer had risen to 11.6C by 08.00.

The air is streaming towards the UK from a region near the Azores, off the Iberian coast, thus the exceptionally mild conditions, if damp.

A very deep low pressure system will head towards the UK later today and into Tuesday that will bring to our area, strong winds and heavy, continuous rain for several hours tonight. The centre of the depression, forecast to be just off the coast of Ireland tomorrow, will have a centre pressure of just 959mb, a significant 40mb below our pressure today at 08.00 of 1006.4mb.

Update at 11.00. Met Eireann have just named the deep depression Storm Bram. We are at the periphery of the Yellow Rain warning from the Met Office for the period Monday 18.00 to Tuesday 14.00.

Interestingly, the depth of water in the River Kennet at Winterborne Monkton, close to where the springs rise for the start of the river, started to flow on December 1st before stopping on the 4th at 16.15 when the gauge indicated no depth of water. The gauge then indicated that a flow of water began again on the 5th December at 07.15 and has continued to indicated a level since that time although variable, the highest of 0.19m was logged on the 6th at 04.45. The highs and lows obviously correlate with the wet spells this month. At 08.00 today the River Kennet at Winterborne Minton had a level of 0.14m whilst the River Kennet in Marlborough registered just 0.07m, now running continuously for three days.

For this month the images will be of the Christmas decorations in Marlborough.

Sunday 7th December
Saturday started dry with some brightness but the cloud soon thickened with light rain mid-morning and again in the last afternoon, following a brief break after midday. Further rain bands arrived around 05.30 Sunday with more precipitation. The daily rainfall amount was 3.8mm. The last twenty-four hours, not surprisingly, brought well above average temperatures under the flow of warm, moist air carried on the southwesterly breeze. The maximum of 11.2C was logged at 13.11 and the minimum 6.7C at 01.59 in the early hours of Sunday, being +3.7C and +4.8C respectively.

The arrival of Sunday was dark, gloomy and damp. This was due to a succession of fragmented rain bands passing southern England since around 05.30. The day ahead will be mainly damp with light showers of rain. A narrower band of heavy rain was shown on the radar at 08.00 as just arriving over the west cast of Cornwall that will likely arrive here around midday.

The week ahead appears to be similar with bands of rain interspersed with brief drier interludes as the projected track of the jet stream, although waving a little, is principally driving low pressure systems towards the UK from the Atlantic. It looks though a deep, low pressure system will arrive on Tuesday that could produce a very wet day with the depression crossing over Ireland. The pressure gradient will be high, which will result in the wind strength increasing to 30mph or higher.

Interestingly, the depth of water in the River Kennet at Winterborne Monkton, close to where the springs rise for the start of the river, started to flow on December 1st before stopping on the 4th at 16.15 when the gauge indicated no depth of water. The gauge indicated that a flow of water began again on the 5th December at 07.15 and has continued to indicated a level since that time although variable, the highest of 0.19m was logged on the 6th at 04.45. The highs and lows obviously correlate with the wet spells this month. At 08.00 today the River Kennet at Winterborne Minton had a level of 0.1m whilst the River Kennet in Marlborough registered just 0.06m.

Saturday 6th December
The mild, moist airflow on Friday once again gave us a mixed day with drier periods and heavier, continuous rain, starting mid-afternoon, that amounted to 9.8mm. As a result of the Atlantic flow of air the thermometer rose slowly all day, with a brief dip between 14.00 and 17.00 as the heavy rain arrived, to reach a maximum of 9.7C at 06.53 early on Saturday. Once again the topsy-turvy nature of our weather, due to the succession of weather fronts crossing the UK, especially during the night, meant the maximum was logged during the night rather than daytime, being 2.2C above average. Conversely, the minimum temperature, that is usually logged during the night for the past twenty-fpur hours from 08.00, was the 1.3C logged at 08.00 on Friday morning.

Saturday at first light revealed a mixed bag of weather with drizzle at 07.50 although variable cloud was mostly high with the prospect of a few brighter periods ahead. However, The rain radar at 08.00 indicated a rash of shower activity heading our way from the south west as the day progresses.

The deep low pressure, that has been centred just off the northwest coast of Ireland, produced a low of 991.1mb in Marlborough at 03.30 this morning. It has resulted in a strong pressure gradient that resulted in the gusty winds yesterday, the maximum gust of 30mph was logged at 14.47 Friday afternoon. The pressure is now rising steadily as the low moves away.

Friday 5th December
Thursday gave us a very wet morning until just after 10.00, the precipitation amounted to 5.8mm. After that time the cloud thinned but did not clear until late afternoon that then saw the ‘Cold Moon’ appear. The peak temperature of 7.2C was 0.3C below average, which was logged at 14.58. As the evening progressed the thermometer slowly edged downwards to reach a minimum -0.7C at 01.09. At 01.15 the thermometer then did an about turn and began to climb reaching 0C at 02.58 and 1.3C at 08.00, the minimum was 2.6C below average. This rise in temperature was due to thin, broken cloud drifting in from the west.

The start to Friday revealed almost total cloud cover, if thin and high, but enough to block any early morning sunshine. The changeable weather pattern will see cloud continue to build during the day with heavy and continuous rain arriving around mid-afternoon thanks to another active weather front pushing in from the west associated with the depression approaching the UK. As the deep low pressure edges closer, the wind will increase in strength after mid-day.

The forecast track of the jet stream, well into next week, predicts that the changeable weather will continue for perhaps another week. This will follow the recent pattern of showers and spells of heavy rain interspersed with drier periods, especially over our region of the UK.

Moons can earn a variety of nicknames, many are derived from centuries of Native American tradition. The ‘Cold Moon of course occurs at some of the coldest times of the year. It is also known as the ‘Long Night Moon’ because it rises during the longest nights of the year. It was also a super moon after the October ‘Harvest Moon’ followed by the ‘Beaver Moon’ in November. It was visible in the UK from 14.30 yesterday until 09.00 today.

Super moons occur because the Moon’s orbit around the earth is not perfectly circular but instead slightly elliptical – meaning it is sometimes closer to us than at other times.

Thursday 4th December
The principally southerly breeze, a warm direction, produced a maximum of 9.1C at 13.25 on Wednesday being 1.6C above my long-term average. The cloudy night meant a mild night with a low of 5.3C at 18.35, being 3.4C above average. Usually the temperature drops away during the night but cloud built up with the first rain observed at 19.50 that came back with a vengeance on Thursday morning at 05.45 that produced a daily total of 5.2mm. There were a couple of light showers during the early hours. The rain this month already totals 25.6mm.

Thursday arrived dark, gloomy and wet with a wide rain band spreading across southern England that should begin to clear mid-morning.

The next few days will follow this pattern of mild, moist air from the Atlantic with longer spells of rain from time to time. By Friday the depression to the north Ireland will deepen and intensify the pattern of sunshine and showers, interspersed with longer spells of rain. Friday night looks likely to be very wet.