Category: Commentary

Sunday 7th June
Saturday was a day best forgotten as it rained almost all day, there was a brief gap mid-morning, all due to a very wide weather front that deposited 7.2mm of rain, mostly of a light nature, intermingled with light drizzle, driven on by a brisk breeze. Not surprisingly, it was a very cool day that saw the thermometer struggle to reach a maximum of 15.2C at 10.46, during the bright period, being a significant 5.5C below average. The thick cloud overnight meant a minimum of 10.6C at 02.15, was just above average at +0.4C.

Sunday began once more with total cloud cover with little prospect of any sunshine. The forecast pressure charts indicate that another weather front, with its associated rain, will arrive later this afternoon or early evening due to yet another low pressure system closing in on the UK. A temporary mini-ridge of high pressure will fend off the weather fronts until later in the day with a barometric pressure reading of 1019.6mb at 08.00, the highest this month, but will collapse southward as the next depression closes in on the UK.

The week ahead looks to continue the changeable, unsettled conditions as the jet stream is forecast to push further depressions across the Atlantic heading for the UK. However, there is growing confidence in the forecast track of the jet stream, come next weekend, that its track will begin to loop to the north of the UK allowing higher pressure and warmer air to arrive from a more southerly direction.

The pictures this week will continue from Abbotsbury Swannery, a home to a colony of over 600 Mute Swans, located on the dramatic Dorset Coast.

Saturday 6th June
Although there were many hours of broken sunshine on Friday, especially in the morning and early afternoon, the thermometer struggled to reach a maximum of 17.2C at 14.11, being 3.5C below average, before cloud began to edge in from the west ahead of the next depression. During the evening cloud thickened with the first rain falling just after midnight, totalling 4.0mm by 08.00. The low of 10.7C was just above average, +0.5C, logged just after midnight, before the very low and thick cloud arrived.

Saturday arrived with the nasty low pressure system centred over Wales that has brought, and will continue for much of the day, low, thick cloud, rainfall on and off all day, with gusty winds. The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 1003/7mb and falling rapidly, as I write this report, as the depression tracks across central England.

The jet stream is currently speeding across the Atlantic pushing low pressure systems towards and across the UK. The forecast track of the jet steam is for this to continue all next week with depressions arriving across or just to the north of the UK that will continue the unsettled weather up to next weekend. The winds will continue from a southwesterly quadrant all week. There are indications, for the following week, that the track will begin to loop higher above the UK thus raising the possibility of warmer and dryer weather, but a week is a long time in weather forecasting for any certainty.

Met Office weather forecast for June

In its forecast for June 8 to June 17, the Met Office says “showers or longer spells of rain” are on the cards, with the wettest conditions coming in the north-west, while the south-east is expected to remain driest.

Towards the end of the period, higher pressure and more settled conditions could become more prevalent – particularly in the south. “Temperatures are likely to be near normal overall,” the Met Office adds.

The Met Office forecast for June 18 to July 2 says that, at the start of the period, high pressure should bring “drier conditions to most parts of the UK” – although showers remain possible. “Winds will mostly be light with temperatures probably above normal,” it adds.

“Towards the end of June, low pressure may begin to have more of an influence, especially across the south where heavy showers and thunderstorms become more probable. It may also become hot in parts of the south.”

Friday 5th June
After a very wet morning on Thursday, the weather improved in the afternoon with the rain ceasing just before 13.00, that totalled 4.8mm. In fact we have had twice as much rain in the first four days of June than in the whole of May. The welcome afternoon sunshine boosted the temperature to a maximum 18.4C at 16.03, however, this was still 2.3C below my long-term June average. The clear skies overnight gave us a minimum of 10.4C, which was just above average at +0.2C.

Friday began with warm sunshine that had lifted the temperature to 14.1C by 08.00, sadly the sunshine won’t last all day as there is a nasty low pressure system is edging in from the Atlantic, which will push cloud ahead of it with possible rain overnight. Saturday will be a very wet, windy day as the centre of the depression will be overhead the UK having pushed weather fronts ahead of it.

By Sunday the low pressure will be heading away to the north with the anticyclone over the Continent keeping the next weather fronts at bay, that will arrive on Monday. The week ahead looks to continue the unsettled weather with sunshine and showers with temperatures by day likely to be just below the average for June.

Attached is the first of a series of images taken at Abbotsbury Swannery in Dorset. A magical time of year to visit this extensive site.

Met Office heatwave forecast after 35C record-breaker – ‘more than usual’ chance

Weather forecasters from the Met Office and MeteoGroup say there is an increased chance of heatwaves in the coming months following the 35C record-breaker in May

BY ETHAN BLACKSHAW
PUBLISHED 03 JUNE 2026 21:08

The Met Office has issued a forecast for the next three months, with an “increased chance of heatwave conditions” developing in the UK.

It follows a scorching heatwave in May during which temperatures surged as high as 35.1C in Kew Gardens, London. That was the hottest temperature in May since records began.

Weather models suggest we could soon see the mercury rise back above 30C towards the middle of this month. And now the Met Office has published a long-range outlook for June, July and August – which states “hot conditions are more likely than usual” this summer.

It said that although “near average conditions are still just about the most likely out-come”, forecasters did not want to diminish the fact that “we have a more than usual chance of a hot summer”

Thursday 4th June
There were several showers during the past twenty-four hours, especially heavy mid-morning and again late afternoon, that produced a total of 10.0mm of rainfall. The variable cloud meant the temperature by day was depressed with a maximum of 19.4C at 15.40, being 1.3C below average. In fact the last three days have produced below average maxima in this unsettled period. The same could not be said of the overnight minimum of 12.1C, being 1.9C above average, due to cloud cover and a brisk west-southwest breeze logged at 03.56 early Thursday.

Thursday gave us a cloudy and breezy start to the new day. The radar display indicated a rash of showers heading our way, likely heavy late morning on a brisk westerly air stream. We are currently under the spell of a relatively deep depression, centred over Scotland, containing much moisture after its travels over the Atlantic. The surface pressure charts indicate that a trough of low pressure will be the cause of the windy and wet spell this morning. The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 995.4mb, the lowest pressure since early January.

A weather trough is an elongated region of relatively low atmospheric pressure, within a low pressure system. As the wind shifts and air converges in this area, it is forced upward, which cools, condenses, and forms clouds. Consequently, troughs consistently bring unsettled weather, including increased cloud cover, showers and occasionally thunderstorms.

Friday will be a much better day as the current low pressure system eases away, the barometric pressure is already rising rapidly, resulting in a drier and sunnier day.

The forecast pressure charts indicate that we will be under a succession of low pressure systems up to the weekend and into next week, that will continue the spell of unsettled weather. The rainfall is very welcome by gardeners and farmers alike but a damp and cool start to meteorological summer.

Today is the last image on frogs and frog spawn. Tomorrow I will start a new series from Abbotsbury Swannery, a truly wonderful place to visit at this time of year.

Wednesday 3rd June
The bursts of sunshine on Tuesday resulted in the UV level again very high and a peak solar radiation of 1120W/m2, but we are close to mid-summer. The temperature rose to a maximum of 19.6C at 14.31, being 1.1C below my long-term average for June, whist a light shower was observed just before 17.00 that produced only 0.2mm of precipitation. A cloudy night produced a minimum of 11.0C at 05.39, being 0.8C above average.

Wednesday arrived with total cloud cover and the breeze strengthening. The weather radar showed a large clump of thicker cloud over Marlborough at 08.00, but no precipitation. However, substantial rain, falling over Somerset and Devon at that time, will probably arrive mid-morning.

Another depression has arrived from the Atlantic with its centre closing in on northwest Scotland. This is the cause of the forecast rain from two separate weather fronts. The isobars, lines of equal barometric pressure, are quite tight, that signifies stronger winds due to a significant pressure gradient as the air rushes from the low pressure to the high pressure ow over eastern Europe.

This week I attach frog spawn images in advancing stages of development.

The UK could see a warmer-than-average summer with the potential for more heatwaves, according to latest forecasts.

The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June – the first day of meteorological summer – citing higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during the month.

And for the whole summer – which runs through to the end of August – the outlook suggests “an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”.

It comes after a late spring heatwave saw temperature records shattered across the UK.

A new all-time May record of 35.1C was set in Kew Gardens, London, replacing the previous record of 32.8C from 1944.
Yellow and amber heat health alerts were also issued for the first time this year.

Now, long-range forecasts from the Met Office and MeteoGroup suggest the summer ahead will bring the risk of additional heatwaves.

A “few notable high temperature spikes” are also possible according to MeteoGroup.

They also go on to say that “above-average temperatures” are expected for each of the months of June, July and August, and “significant bursts” of heat are expected in the UK, and across Europe.

But, according to the Met Office, the higher than average temperatures forecast comes as having a hotter summer is now twice as likely than the reference averaging period of 1991-2020, consistent with our warming climate.