Category: Commentary

Monday 5th October
Sunday was a very pleasant autumn day with plenty of sunshine, although a slightly cloudier period occurred between 12.00 and 13.00, which limited the eventual maximum to 21.4C, even so, this was 6.5C above average. Initially the sky was clear in the evening, however, advance cloud from another weather front began to edge across from the west just after midnight, that meant the drop in temperature was limited, with a minimum of 12.9C at 06.55, this low was 5.4C above average. Both day and night were exceptionally mild for early October.

First light on Monday revealed the extent of the weather front and its associated cloud with misty conditions draping the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest. The air was very humid with moisture being felt in the air but no measurable precipitation. There is a slight possibility of some brightness as the afternoon progresses, if the cloud cover thins, with hopefully a sunny interval or two. Whatever, the flow of humid, warm air on a light south-southwest air stream will mean another mild day and night ahead.

Tuesday will follow a similar pattern although any sunshine is likely to be minimal, however, this will be the last very mild day and night.

The barometric pressure is slowly falling indicating the change in the weather pattern, having dropped 5mb since yesterday with a reading of 1025.7mb at 08.00.

As the high pressure relocates further southwestwards, the air will come around its northern flank on Wednesday and arrive from a more northerly direction, which will be a much cooler airstream that will result in a maximum probably just below the October average, perhaps a fall of six or seven degrees below the recent highs, so feeling chilly. A weather front will traverse the country in the morning with its associated cloud. There is increasing confidence that the cold front will produce several hours of possible light rain.

The forecast charts for Thursday indicate it will be a bright, dry and sunny day as the cloud from the weather front will have cleared and the wind beginning to veer a few degrees to come from the northwest but still a chilly day. By Friday, the forecast carts indicate that the wind might have backed further to return us to a pattern of moist, warmer air stream from the southwest with possibly further light showers, especially in the morning, early days for much confidence.

The trees are beginning to show signs that autumn is arriving with limited change in colour appearing on the leaves. For the next few days I will attach images taken in SavernaKe Forest, that as the weeks progress, will reveal the full colour of the beech trees in their transformation, before winter arrives.

HadUK-Grid: assessing the UK’s climate over time
Author: Met Office

Part 1
Every day, weather stations across the UK record the conditions around us.

They measure temperature, rainfall, sunshine, wind and much more, creating a vast collection of observations that helps us understand the weather as it happens.

But weather stations cannot be located everywhere. There is no instrument on every hillside, in every valley or on every street. The observing network also changes over time as stations open, close or move. So how can we bring individual measurements together to understand the climate of the whole country?

The answer is HadUK-Grid.

HadUK-Grid is a digital representation of the UK’s climate, built using observations from hundreds of weather stations. It turns measurements taken at individual locations into a complete and consistent picture covering the country, allowing scientists to examine conditions across space and through time in a consistent manner.

More of this article tomorrow

Sunday 4th October
Saturday morning was dominated by cloud associated with the weather front approaching from the west that arrived overhead at 14.15 depositing brief, very light drizzle. The precipitation was minimal and not measurable, thus recorded as a trace, that lasted just a few minutes. As the back edge of the cloud receded to the east the sun came out mid-afternoon that lifted the temperature to a maximum of 18.8C at 16.23, being 3.9C above average. The clear skies and calm conditions resulted in a cold night that saw the thermometer drop to a low of 5.2C at 07.45 on Sunday morning, an hour after the sun had tried to rise above the fog.

First light on Sunday revealed foggy conditions that at its densest reduced visibility to around 300m. The rolling fog was continually on the move and did not begin to disperse until the sun had been up an hour or more, however, by 08.20 the fog had changed to just misty conditions. The barometric pressure is still very high with a reading at 08.00 of 1030.0mb, down from its peak of 1030.5mb just after midnight.

The high pressure will be in charge for another three days before it slips away to the west during Tuesday. By Wednesday, a very different weather pattern will have moved into place with two cold weather fronts crossing the UK that behind them will see the wind veer into the north, a much cooler direction. Temperatures for the rest of next week will have dropped several degrees, to around the October average, so feeling much cooler after the recent warm spell. There is the possibility of light rain on Wednesday morning as the weather fronts pass over.

N.B.
An explanation for those who explore my library of temperature data and associated graphs that span the past forty plus years.

The temperature graphs have ceased to be updated since 2025.

The graph data since 1984 was used from a cabled weather station, which was state of the art at that time. Being cabled, the positioning of the sensor was limited to the length of cable, which meant it could not be far from buildings and any hard standing such as a pavement. I keep the 41 years of consistent data as it is so useful to see the changing trends.

My recent weather stations have been placed near grass and in the larger garden, thus minimising the effect of residual warmth from buildings and solid surfaces also the effect of any wind movement around a building. This placement sets the grading of the station for the national organisation to which I submit monthly data, linked to the Met Office. I now have almost 20 years of data from this new station placement, plus data from my latest 2024 equipment.

The rainfall is still recorded from my standard Met Office 5” copper gauge, these graphs continue to be updated.

Saturday 3rd October
Friday gave us a sunny morning but variable cloud arrived after around midday that limited any further rise in temperature following the high of 20.3C at 12.48, which was 5.4C above average. The past night was also mild with a minimum of 11.4C, logged at 07.28 early Saturday being 3.9C above average.

Saturday arrived with total cloud cover, the result of a weak weather front crossing the area during the morning. The radar chart at 07.00 indicated small clumps of thicker cloud, with minimal precipitation, forming over South Wales and the Bristol Channel heading eastwards. There is the possibility of some light drizzle during the morning but minimal, if at all. Hopefully, as the cloud from the back edge of the front eases away, it will thin and allow some sunshine to break through this afternoon.

The elongated area of high pressure that currently covers much of southern England will be in charge until later on Tuesday, which will mean mainly dry and warm days ahead with variable sunshine and temperatures several degrees above the October average. By Wednesday, the forecast pressure charts indicate a new area of high pressure will have been developing in Mid-Atlantic and edging closer. The air stream, circulating clockwise around the anticyclone, will arrive from a northerly direction bringing much cooler weather. The maximum temperatures from Wednesday onwards will drop several degrees compared to the past week and be closer to or just below average.

Deep Dive: How a Pacific hurricane could influence the UK’s weather

Author: Met Office

The remnants of a hurricane thousands of miles away may help shape the UK’s weather this weekend.

The connection involves tropical thunderstorms, changes in the jet stream and a weather front whose development remains unusually uncertain.

Before looking ahead, it is worth reflecting on the exceptional warmth experienced across the UK at the end of September. Temperatures reached 28.1°C at Kew Gardens on Tuesday, placing conditions towards the upper end of what would normally be expected at this point in the year. Although not record-breaking, the warmth was notable both by day and overnight, with minimum temperatures of 18°C or 19°C possible in places.

The warmth is being drawn northwards ahead of a large area of low pressure to the west of Ireland. This low is pushing the jet stream to the south while bringing unusually warm air across the UK. Cloud, rain and strong winds are preventing the air mass from reaching its full temperature potential, but conditions are still well above average across much of England and Wales.

Friday 2nd October
The new month on Thursday continued the pattern from September with another mild day and night. The peak of 19.4C was logged early in the afternoon as more variable cloud arrived, although it was 4.5C above my October average. The minimum of 9.4C was also logged earlier than normal during the early hours, at 02.37, when unusually the temperature eased upwards again, I suspect due to a slightly warmer air stream arriving from the southwest rather than predominantly from the southeast yesterday. The low was 1.9C above my October average.

Friday began bright after dawn with thin, muted sunshine that was soon overcome by a sheet of cloud edging in from the west, however, by 08.00 the temperature had climbed upwards to read 13.1C, an increase of almost 4C from the low point.

A tongue of high pressure will vary in position over the next five days acting as a buffer to most active weather fronts that will sweep across more northerly parts of the UK. There is the possibility of a weak front crossing on Saturday that is likely to produce thin cloud but no precipitation. In fact the presence of the high pressure until Tuesday will keep the advancing depression at bay.

The forecast pressure charts indicate a significant change from Wednesday onwards with the wind veering into the north and maximum temperatures dropping several degrees, close to the October average.

N.B.
An explanation for those who explore my library of temperature data and graphs over the past forty plus years.

Some of the temperature graphs have ceased to be updated since 2024.

The graph data since 1984 was used from a cabled weather station, which was state of the art at that time. Being cabled, the positioning of the station was limited to the length of cable, which meant it could not be far from buildings and any hard standing such a pavements. I keep the 41 years of consistent data as it is so useful to see the changing trends.

My recent weather stations have been placed near grass and in the larger garden, thus minimising the effect of residual warmth from buildings and solid surfaces also the effect of wind movement around a building. This placement sets the grading of the station for the national organisation to which I submit monthly data that is linked to the Met Office. I now have almost 20 years of data from this new station placement, plus data from my latest 2024 equipment.

The rainfall is still recorded from my standard Met Office 5” copper gauge, these graphs continue to be updated.

September 2026 Review

After the heatwaves in August, it was a relief to start the new month with a little cooler air and a couple of days with modest welcome rainfall.

Sunday the 6th was memorable for a plume of very warm air that was pushed across from the near Continent on a southerly breeze that resulted in the thermometer climbing higher again with a maximum of 26.3C, being 7.3C above my September average.

Very welcome rain fell on the 8th totalling 10.1mm as a depression threw weather fronts across the country.

The second week brought variable weather, some dry days and others with minimal rain from a predominantly south-westerly airstream. The slight relocation of the high and low weather systems saw the wind vary from southwest bringing warm and most air to veering into the northwest, a cooler and drier airstream originating just south of Iceland.

The third week saw the breeze again vary between southwest and northwest with maximum temperatures close to the average and a modest rainfall of 2.8mm from several passing banks of drizzle and light rain on the 19th.

A significant area of high-pressure moved across the country on the 20th, which heralded a period of very warm, dry and sunny weather with maximum temperatures rising several degrees above the late September average with a peak of 23.7C on the 21st being 4.7C above my late September average.

The other significant feature of that week was the lack of air movement. For many continuous hours overnight, and often during the daytime, the anemometer was becalmed as the centre of the high pressure was almost overhead.

The last week was a topsy turvy week as almost daily the barometric pressure rose and fell as the recent anticyclone relocated and low-pressure systems tried to advance from the Atlantic.

A flow of cooler air and a cold front passing over the country on the 27th resulted in the coolest day of the month with a minimum of 17.3C, which was 1.7C below average. This was followed by a very warm and moist day on the 28th as a temporary flow of warmth was drawn in from Europe on a southeasterly breeze.

All the while the recent anticyclone, then over eastern Europe, acted as a buffer to the advancing depressions trying to advance from the Atlantic, that had by the 30th deepened significantly with a forecast barometric pressure of 955mb, centred south of Iceland. This resulted in the lowest barometric pressure here all month with a low of 1006.8mb.

The month ended with a significantly warm night when the thermometer did not drop below 17.8C, which was only just below the average maximum for September.

It was the second warmest September I have recorded with a mean temperature 2.3C above my long-term average, with the year 2023 being 0.4C warmer. The analysis reveals that the average maximum was +2.4C whist the average minimum was +2.2C, unusually even.

Looking back over my records, I note that for September, the average temperature has risen from 13.2C in the 1980s to 14.1C. in recent years.

The rainfall of 28.8mm was just 43% of my 43-year record or minus 38.4mm. The wettest year since my station started in 1984 was 2024 with 221.4mm and the driest was jointly 2003 and 2009 with just 11.1mm.

The rainfall for the period January to September stands at 489mm, which is surprisingly just 92mm below my 43-year average. The reason being the very wet January and February that allowed considerable water to percolate down to the aquifers with minimal evaporation. The contrasting year was in in 2022, when by that point in the year we had only received 336mm. The records show that only February in that year, for this period, had an above average monthly rainfall.

Thursday 1st October
Wednesday was another pleasant autumn day with both the maximum of 21.7C at 14.37 and the overnight minimum of 9.8C, several degrees above average. During the evening several lines of broken showers were observed passing to the west and east of Marlborough with a light shower arriving here at 22.15 and then just after 02.00, that totalled 1.6mm.

Thursday after first light revealed that radiation fog had begun to form in the River Og valley after 06.30, that had completely dispersed by 07.40 as the sun got to work. This coincided with the temperature falling to its lowest at 07.34, after sunrise in Marlborough at 07.07.

The barometric pressure is currently rising rapidly and forecast pressure charts indicate that it will dominate our weather up to the weekend and likely into next week, with the breeze coming from a direction between south and west. This will result in several days with sunny intervals and maximum temperatures well above the October average. There is little indication, at the moment, of any rainfall well ahead into next week.

September 2026 Review

After the heatwaves in August, it was a relief to start the new month with a little cooler air and a couple of days with modest welcome rainfall.

Sunday the 6th was memorable for a plume of very warm air that was pushed across from the near Continent on a southerly breeze that resulted in the thermometer climbing higher again with a maximum of 26.3C, being 7.3C above my September average.

Very welcome rain fell on the 8th totalling 10.1mm as a depression threw weather fronts across the country.

The second week brought variable weather, some dry days and others with minimal rain from a predominantly south-westerly airstream. The slight relocation of the high and low weather systems saw the wind vary from southwest, bringing warm and most air, to veering into the northwest, a cooler and drier airstream originating just south of Iceland.

The third week saw the breeze again vary between southwest and northwest with maximum temperatures close to the average and a modest rainfall of 2.8mm from several passing banks of drizzle and light rain on the 19th.

A significant area of high-pressure moved across the country on the 20th, which heralded a period of very warm, dry and sunny weather with maximum temperatures rising several degrees above the late September average with a peak of 23.7C on the 21st being 4.7C above my late September average.

The other significant feature of that week was the lack of air movement. For many continuous hours overnight, and often during the daytime, the anemometer was becalmed as the centre of the high pressure was almost overhead.

The last week was a topsy turvy week as almost daily the barometric pressure rose and fell as the recent anticyclone relocated and low-pressure systems tried to advance from the Atlantic.

A flow of cooler air and a cold front passing over the country on the 27th resulted in the coolest day of the month with a minimum of 17.3C, which was 1.7C below average. This was followed by a very warm and moist day on the 28th as a temporary flow of warmth was drawn in from Europe on a southeasterly breeze.

All the while the recent anticyclone, then over eastern Europe, acted as a buffer to the advancing depressions trying to advance from the Atlantic, that had by the 30th deepened significantly with a forecast barometric pressure of 955mb, centred south of Iceland. This resulted in the lowest barometric pressure here all month with a low of 1006.8mb.

The month ended with a significantly warm night when the thermometer did not drop below 17.8C, which was only just below the average maximum for September.

It was the second warmest September I have recorded with a mean temperature 2.3C above my long-term average, with the year 2023 being 0.4C warmer. The analysis reveals that the average maximum was +2.4C whist the average minimum was +2.2C, unusually even.

Looking back over my records, I note that for September, the average temperature has risen from 13.2C in the 1980s to 14.1C in recent years.

The rainfall of 28.8mm was just 43% of my 43-year record or minus 38.4mm. The wettest year since my station started in 1984 was 2024 with 221.4mm and the driest was jointly 2003 and 2009 with just 11.1mm.

The rainfall for the period January to September now stands at 489mm, which is surprisingly just 92mm below my 43-year average. The reason being the very wet January and February that allowed considerable water to percolate down to the aquifers with minimal evaporation. The contrasting year was in in 2022, when by that point in the year we had only received 336mm. The records show that only February in that year, for this period, had an above average monthly rainfall.