Thursday 8th October
Wednesday began wet and cool, and got cooler as the day progressed, thanks to the strengthening breeze from the north also the cold airstream behind the weather front. The morning began with a temperature of 12.9C at 08.00 and instead of getting warmer, the temperature steadily fell away to reach 10.6C at 15.14 then continuing to fall again until reaching a minimum of 4.1C at 07.39 early Thursday. The drizzle and light rain continued for most of the afternoon although the cloud did thin and allow weak sunshine to break through at 16.40.
Thursday dawned bright and clear with welcome sunshine soon after sunrise. A temporary ridge of high pressure has pushed in overnight that will give us a fine, dry and sunny day. But it will be all change again on Friday as another cold front is forecast to cross the country that will mean a wet and breezy day until later in the afternoon. As the day progresses the breeze will back from the northwest to west-southwest, a return to an Atlantic pattern of weather with a warmer airstream.
Over the weekend the forecast pressure charts indicate a lack of weather fronts arriving from the west so a pleasant couple of days with temperatures retaining to around the October average with the wind predominantly from the west. However, the pressure charts indicate a disturbed Monday as at the moment at least three weather fronts are likely to cross the country.
Part two of the Met Office article on El Niño. Their view on recent disturbing headlines on possible extreme weather.
A spokesperson said: “Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric Polar Vortex can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather.”
The forecaster said “it was too far away to give any forecast information” about how this might affect the UK and it remains “just one possible outcome dependent on many competing factors”
This year’s “super El Niño” has already shattered global records to become the most powerful event in history.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions, said: “We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event.”
“The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño.”