Friday 28th November
The brisk, moist and warm air that drifted in from the Atlantic on Thursday gave us a gloomy, cloudy day, however, the thermometer rose to its highest for nearly two weeks with a maximum of 12.9C at 13.59. This Atlantic air stream also meant an above average minimum of 6.9C at 04.44 early Friday being +2.9C. A little precipitation amounting to 1.0mm occurred in the evening as a minor weather front crossed our area at 20.30. After that time the wind began to veer towards the west and the temperature to drop slowly.
Friday after dawn revealed a sky of thin, high cloud with small breaks in the cover.
The flow of moist, warm air from the southwest will continue today and tomorrow producing maxima close to the late November average. However, as the depression edges away from Iceland towards Scandinavia there is a possibility of a small low-pressure system forming over southern England that could produce a very wet Saturday morning. As the system edges eastwards another ridge of high pressure will nose across the country on Sunday that will see the wind veer into the northwest and although possibly sunny, it will be a cold day. Monday will see the weather return to unsettled conditions from the Atlantic.
Yesterday Thames Water stated that the hosepipe ban had been lifted. Although the October rainfall was again below average the November total is currently 137% of my 42-year record.
This is the last part of the Met Office article on the difficulty of forecasting snow over the UK.
How far ahead can we predict snow?
Unlike regions with more stable winter climates, the UK’s variable weather means snow cannot be forecast with high confidence weeks in advance. While long-range models can indicate colder spells, pinpointing snowfall requires short-range analysis. Typically, confidence increases within a few days of an event, and severe weather warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of impacts.
The Met Office uses a combination of model data, radar observations and expert judgement to refine forecasts. When snow is likely to be impactful, National Severe Weather Warnings are issued to help people prepare for potential disruption.
How the Met Office communicates snow warnings
When snow is expected, the Met Office issues warnings through its National Severe Weather Warning Service. These warnings are colour-coded, yellow, amber and red, based on the likelihood and potential impact of the event. Yellow warnings highlight the need for awareness, amber warnings indicate increased risk and potential disruption, and red warnings are reserved for the most severe conditions where immediate action is required.