Saturday 19th September
Friday morning slowly warmed up with a peak of 18.7C at 13.21. However, this high was below average due to the weather front arriving from the west that pushed cloud across and obliterated the sun after midday, thus no increase in temperature during the afternoon, in fact there was a little light rain to the north of Swindon, but none here. The thick cloud, acting as a duvet, meant little loss of warmth into the atmosphere overnight with a minimum of 15.3C at 07.19, which was 5.8C above my long-term September average.
The past two twenty-four hour periods have seen contrasting extremes. The diurnal temperature range, the difference between day and night extremes, for the previous period was 11.4C whilst the past twenty-four hours gave a minimal diurnal range of just 3.4C.
Saturday began dull and gloomy as the weather front transferred to the east whist another weather front will arrive as the day progresses. This new front, with its associated cloud, will mean a predominantly cloudy day with possible light rain arriving around or just after mid-day, quantities uncertain. The rain radar at 08.30, as I complete this report, indicated a modest area of heavy rain approaching Cardiff with drizzle over the higher ground of Exmoor.
The wind today will continue from the southwest or west-southwest and increase in strength as the weather front arrives, being quite gusty at times, from around mid-morning onwards.
The depression to the north will be in charge today, however, there are signs that a ridge of high pressure will win the battle tomorrow and push back across the country from the southwest, resulting in a sunnier day.
There is now much more confidence in the forecast chart of the jet stream track, that will arch above the UK into next week allowing high pressure to take charge resulting in days with sunny intervals and maxima rising several degrees above the late September average, especially up to mid-week, before dropping back a degree or two but still above average until next weekend.
Part 2 of the article from the Met Office regarding recent extreme weather headlines.
“30°C surge?” “Brutal chill?”: Weather headline review
Author: Met Office
Thursday 17 Sep 2026
Recent weather headlines have focused on everything from a late
September “heat bomb” and temperatures approaching 30°C to a “brutal” chill and dozens of areas being soaked.
But, how do these claims compare with the latest Met Office forecast?
Headlines often draw attention to the most striking outcome shown by an individual weather map or forecast model run. While the temperatures or rainfall shown may be possible, they do not always represent the most likely outcome or reflect the uncertainty and regional variation within a longer-range forecast.
Is a “brutal” 4°C chill about to hit?
Another headline claims that “UK weather maps show when brutal 4°C chill hits – eight counties below 7°C”.
Temperatures close to 4°C would feel pretty chilly, especially following a period of warmer weather. Lower overnight temperatures can occur locally during autumn when skies are clear and winds are light. However, an isolated minimum temperature is not necessarily representative of conditions across the UK or of daytime temperatures.
The longer-range forecast does not indicate a widespread or prolonged cold spell.
Temperatures are expected to be near average in the northwest between 23 and 25
September, while many other areas are likely to be rather warm or warm. Looking towards mid-October, temperatures are forecast to remain above average overall.
A chilly night in a few locations therefore remains possible, but the broader forecast signal is not one of unusually cold weather.
Could temperatures soar to 30°C?
The headline “Met Office reveals date heat to return as UK weather maps show soaring 30C surge” also focuses on the possibility of a late burst of summer-like warmth.
There is some support for temperatures rising during the latter part of September. Many areas could become rather warm or warm, with the possibility of very warm and humid conditions in parts of the south.
However, a widespread temperature of 30°C is not confirmed by the current outlook. At this range, confidence is higher in the general trend towards warmer weather than in a precise maximum temperature for an individual location.
The headline therefore reflects a genuine forecast signal, but presents one of the warmer possible outcomes with greater certainty than the forecast currently supports.