Thursday 5th November
The anticyclonic gloom was in evidence on Wednesday with thick cloud for much of the day, the odd small break did allow the occasional burst of very brief sunshine. The cloud cover, combined with an even stronger wind from the east-northeast, limited the rise in temperature resulting in a maximum of just 9.5C at 13.42 being 0.8C below average. During the evening the thermometer dropped down to around 6.8C for several hours before midnight and just afterwards. However, thicker cloud arrived around 05.00 that resulted in the temperature rising to 7.5C before dropping back to 6.9C at 08.00. The minimum was 2.7C above average.
There was light drizzle in the late evening, observed at 23.00 and a little thicker just before midnight that totalled just 0.8mm.
Thursday struggled to wake up under the very low, thick cloud with moisture felt in the air at 08.00, not measurable. The radar showed a large area of thick cloud over central England that the back track of the radar showed had arrived during the early hours and was moving very little. As the high pressure eases away the pressure gradient is falling with the result the wind today will be much lighter than recent days.
I referred on Tuesday to a possible trough forming down to the southwest that might change the dry, fine weather, which in fact has proved to be correct today. This will result in a weak weather front crossing the country on Friday that will see the continuation of the cloudy weather with possible light showers arriving on Friday morning.
The large area of high pressure is expanding over Scandinavia to the north and down across the Mediterranean and North Africa to the south, with the local barometric pressure slowly falling, down 12mb since the peak on Monday. This will allow a depression in the eastern Atlantic to edge closer to the UK over the weekend but not sufficiently close, it is thought, to produce any precipitation on Saturday and Sunday.
I attach the recent thinking by the Met Office as regards next week.
High pressure finally loses its grip
The more substantial change arrives as we move into next week.
The high pressure that has dominated the UK will become increasingly weak and poorly defined before gradually retreating eastwards. As winds become lighter during this transition, mist and fog could become more widespread overnight for a time.
Low pressure will then approach from the southwest, bringing the potential for wetter and windier weather, particularly around the middle of next week. This system will also try to draw milder air northwards across the UK.
At the same time, however, colder air will be attempting to move south from the north. The big question is where the boundary between these two contrasting air masses eventually sits.