Category: Commentary

Saturday 19th September
Friday morning slowly warmed up with a peak of 18.7C at 13.21. However, this high was below average due to the weather front arriving from the west that pushed cloud across and obliterated the sun after midday, thus no increase in temperature during the afternoon, in fact there was a little light rain to the north of Swindon, but none here. The thick cloud, acting as a duvet, meant little loss of warmth into the atmosphere overnight with a minimum of 15.3C at 07.19, which was 5.8C above my long-term September average.

The past two twenty-four hour periods have seen contrasting extremes. The diurnal temperature range, the difference between day and night extremes, for the previous period was 11.4C whilst the past twenty-four hours gave a minimal diurnal range of just 3.4C.

Saturday began dull and gloomy as the weather front transferred to the east whist another weather front will arrive as the day progresses. This new front, with its associated cloud, will mean a predominantly cloudy day with possible light rain arriving around or just after mid-day, quantities uncertain. The rain radar at 08.30, as I complete this report, indicated a modest area of heavy rain approaching Cardiff with drizzle over the higher ground of Exmoor.

The wind today will continue from the southwest or west-southwest and increase in strength as the weather front arrives, being quite gusty at times, from around mid-morning onwards.

The depression to the north will be in charge today, however, there are signs that a ridge of high pressure will win the battle tomorrow and push back across the country from the southwest, resulting in a sunnier day.

There is now much more confidence in the forecast chart of the jet stream track, that will arch above the UK into next week allowing high pressure to take charge resulting in days with sunny intervals and maxima rising several degrees above the late September average, especially up to mid-week, before dropping back a degree or two but still above average until next weekend.

Part 2 of the article from the Met Office regarding recent extreme weather headlines.

“30°C surge?” “Brutal chill?”: Weather headline review
Author: Met Office
Thursday 17 Sep 2026

Recent weather headlines have focused on everything from a late

September “heat bomb” and temperatures approaching 30°C to a “brutal” chill and dozens of areas being soaked.
But, how do these claims compare with the latest Met Office forecast?

Headlines often draw attention to the most striking outcome shown by an individual weather map or forecast model run. While the temperatures or rainfall shown may be possible, they do not always represent the most likely outcome or reflect the uncertainty and regional variation within a longer-range forecast.

Is a “brutal” 4°C chill about to hit?

Another headline claims that “UK weather maps show when brutal 4°C chill hits – eight counties below 7°C”.

Temperatures close to 4°C would feel pretty chilly, especially following a period of warmer weather. Lower overnight temperatures can occur locally during autumn when skies are clear and winds are light. However, an isolated minimum temperature is not necessarily representative of conditions across the UK or of daytime temperatures.

The longer-range forecast does not indicate a widespread or prolonged cold spell.

Temperatures are expected to be near average in the northwest between 23 and 25
September, while many other areas are likely to be rather warm or warm. Looking towards mid-October, temperatures are forecast to remain above average overall.

A chilly night in a few locations therefore remains possible, but the broader forecast signal is not one of unusually cold weather.

Could temperatures soar to 30°C?

The headline “Met Office reveals date heat to return as UK weather maps show soaring 30C surge” also focuses on the possibility of a late burst of summer-like warmth.

There is some support for temperatures rising during the latter part of September. Many areas could become rather warm or warm, with the possibility of very warm and humid conditions in parts of the south.

However, a widespread temperature of 30°C is not confirmed by the current outlook. At this range, confidence is higher in the general trend towards warmer weather than in a precise maximum temperature for an individual location.

The headline therefore reflects a genuine forecast signal, but presents one of the warmer possible outcomes with greater certainty than the forecast currently supports.

Friday 18th September
Thursday gave us a bright sunny morning with a little more cloud in the afternoon, which was why the maximum of 20.3C was logged in the very early afternoon at 13.09, being 1.3C above average. It was a dry day with the UV level peaking at a Moderate level. Under a clear sky and calm conditions for much of the early hours the thermometer fell to a minimum of 8.9C at 06.00, being 0.6C below average.

Friday arrived with muted sunshine to greet the new day but by 08.00 thin cloud had begun to mask the sun indicating the advancing weather front that at that time was approaching Cornwall. The cloud will continue to thicken as the day progresses, however, the rain bearing area of the front will be just to the north of Wiltshire, so probably a dry day and following night. At 08.40 the rain radar indicted the front of the rain band approaching Cornwall and West Wales with low cloud producing drizzle over the higher ground of Exmoor.

Recently the jet stream has meandered across the Atlantic pushing the low-pressure areas towards the north of the UK. The forecast charts of the jet steam indicate that later on Sunday the track of the jet stream will begin to arch around the north of the UK that will allow high pressure to build and warm air to push from the south, northwards across the UK. The barometric pressure continues to build slowly with a reading of 1014.9mb at 08.00.The lack of strong early morning sunshine meant that the thermometer only recovered to 10.9C by 08.00, the coolest start to a new day, at that time, since the 10th.

If the forecast is accurate we could see several dry and warm days from Monday with maximum temperatures a degree or two above the late September average.

Often the press headlines flash that exceptional weather might be ahead. The Met office have just released the article. Part 2 will be tomorrow.

“30°C surge?” “Brutal chill?”: Weather headline review

Author: Met Office
Thu, 17 Sep 2026

Recent weather headlines have focused on everything from a late September “heat bomb” and temperatures approaching 30°C to a “brutal” chill and dozens of areas being soaked.

But, how do these claims compare with the latest Met Office forecast?

Headlines often draw attention to the most striking outcome shown by an individual weather map or forecast model run. While the temperatures or rainfall shown may be possible, they do not always represent the most likely outcome or reflect the uncertainty and regional variation within a longer-range forecast.

In this review, we take a closer look at some of the most prominent headlines and compare them with the current outlook for the latter part of September and into October.

Is a 29°C “heat bomb” on the way?

The headline “UK weather maps turn volcanic red in up to 29°C heat bomb – 16 hottest counties” suggests that an exceptional burst of heat is about to affect parts of the country.

The latest Met Office outlook does indicate that temperatures are likely to rise. From Wednesday to Friday next week, conditions are expected to be warm for many areas, with parts of the south perhaps becoming very warm and humid.

However, the forecast does not confirm a temperature of 29°C or identify 16 counties as being certain to experience the highest values. Terms such as “volcanic red” refer to the colours used on some temperature maps, rather than indicating that the weather itself will be extreme.

While a notably warm spell is probable, particularly in the south, an explosive or exceptional”heat bomb” is not the central message of the forecast and there is still uncertainty surrounding the longevity of this warm period.

Thursday 17th September
As forecast, broken cloud began to drift across from the northwest on Wednesday, from mid-morning, that restricted the sunshine and the limited the rise in temperature to a maximum of 19.7C at 13.57, which was just 0.7C above my September average. It was a dry day, however, more substantial cloud be seen arriving after 19.30 that minimised the loss of warmth into the atmosphere resulting in a mild night with a minimum of 12.8C at 01.56. The cloud was associated with three weather fronts arriving in the early hours that had become fragmented and thinned depositing just 0.3mm of light rain that triggered the automatic rain gauge at 06.25. Light drizzle was also observed at 08.00 when I read the outdoor instruments.

Thursday struggled to arrive under a cover of thick cloud from the three weather fronts that will take much of the morning to clear with hopefully some sunshine appearing through the breaks in the cloud before midday. The air stream from the west will mean the peak temperature today will be around the average for September but noticeably windier as the deep depression to the northwest begins to influence our weather. The barometric pressure has fallen 10mb since Wednesday, hence the more unsettled conditions and the increase in wind speed.

Friday is likely to be a dry and fine day as the forecast charts indicate no weather fronts crossing the country, however, they will make a return for Saturday that is likely to be a cloudy day but probably dry.

Looking further ahead, the forecast pressure charts indicate that the high pressure to the southwest might push a ridge across the country from Monday that will see the return of the sun and temperatures rising again and possibly a degree or two above average. There is hope that next week could herald a pleasant warm and dry late summer period.

The rainfall for the month to date is just 22.1mm compared to my 43-year average of 67.2mm with next week looking predominantly dry. By contrast, the equivalent loss of rainfall this month due to evaporation from plant life and the ground amounts to 32.5mm, currently averaging around 2mm a day.

Wednesday 16th September
The narrow band of rain that passed over our area just after 09.00 on Tuesday morning had become fragmented on its journey and only produced very light drizzle and a few drops of light rain that did not even wet the pavement, thus recorded as a trace. As the morning progressed, the sun came out and by 14.33 the temperature had peaked at 21.7C, which was 2.7C above average. Due to the clear skies and cooler air stream the temperature dropped away to a low of 9.1C at 06.54, just after sunrise in Marlborough at 06.43. This low was 0.4C below average.

Wednesday arrived with glorious sunshine to start the day, however, it won’t last. Although there is a minor ridge of high pressure edging across the country, a large bank of cloud can be seen on the radar edging down from the northwest that will likely obliterate the sun for much of the day. Hopefully it might thin later in the afternoon to allow a little brightness to close the day. At 08.35 the first sign of cloud edging closer could be seen on the northwest horizon.

The air movement will be from the west for much of the day on Wednesday. This will mean the maximum temperature will likely be below average due to the cloud cover and cooler air stream. The forecast pressure charts indicate that a weather front is likely to arrive early Thursday morning, with a brief period of precipitation, but at the moment it is not thought it will produce prolonged heavy rain. As that cold front clears the rest of the day should bring sunny intervals. Friday, at the moment appears to be devoid of any weather fronts so a dry day with sunny intervals is likely but as evening approaches the forecast pressure charts indicate cloud and further weather fronts arriving as the ridge of high pressure gives way and the two depression to the northwest begin to dominate before the high pushes back again over the weekend that will see temperatures begin to return to around the September average.

What does the latest long-range (30-day) forecast show?

The latest Met Office long-range forecast suggests a generally changeable pattern through the remainder of September and into early October, there will also be spells of drier and more settled weather, especially in the south. Towards the end of September, high pressure may become more influential, bringing a greater chance of settled conditions for a time.

Temperatures are expected to be close to average overall through the remainder of September, with some rather warm days possible, before becoming slightly above average into early October.

At longer lead times, confidence inevitably decreases. As day-to-day weather variations become increasingly less predictable, forecasts focus on broader trends rather than specifics.

This is why long-range outlooks describe potential patterns and probabilities for a month or three-month period rather than exact conditions for a particular day or location.

What does this mean for the UK autumn?

The developing El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through autumn before reaching its peak during winter, and the Met Office will continue to monitor how it interacts with other climate drivers over the coming weeks and months.

Current evidence indicates an increased likelihood of wet, windy and potentially stormy conditions later this autumn and into early winter. This signal is reflected not only in our understanding of El Niño, but also in seasonal prediction models and other large-scale climate drivers.

However, while seasonal forecasts can identify shifts in the likelihood of particular weather patterns, they cannot determine exactly when or where individual weather events will occur.

This means we can assess the chances of a wetter, windier autumn and early winter overall, but it remains too early to identify any specific impacts for particular parts of the UK.

Tuesday 15th September
After an overcast and damp morning on Monday with light drizzle, the afternoon was very pleasant and warm with strong sunshine that lifted the temperature to a maximum of 24.1C, which was 5.1C above average. The last of the flow of warm air overnight gave us another mild night that saw the thermometer not drop below a minimum of 15.6C, unusually late in the early morning at 07.16, which was 45 minutes after the official sunrise time of 06.41 in Marlborough.

After a cloudy start to the new day on Tuesday there was brief sunshine until around 08.15 when cloud drifted across from the west, obliterating the sun, thanks to the arrival of a weather front. The rain radar indicates a narrow band of rain from the first weather front that might produce short lived precipitation from around 09.00.

The two cold fronts are crossing the country today with their associated cloud, but hopefully later in the morning or early afternoon the cloud will thin and break up allowing the sun to break through. The wind will make a subtle change in direction from the recent southwesterly, which was mild and moist, to west then northwest as the day progresses. This slight change in direction will bring us a cooler and dryer airstream today, hence the name cold front, with maxima around or just below average for the rest of the working week before it rises again over the weekend.

Wednesday will see a temporary ridge of high pressure push back across the country that will bring us a day of sunny intervals.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist, lan Lisk, said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.

“However, El Niño is only one of several factors affecting the UK’s weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.

‘We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.”
What does the latest long-range (30-day) forecast show?

The latest Met Office long-range forecast suggests a generally changeable pattern through the remainder of September and into early October, there will also be spells of drier and more settled weather, especially in the south. Towards the end of September, high pressure may become more influential, bringing a greater chance of settled conditions for a time.

Temperatures are expected to be close to average overall through the remainder of September, with some rather warm days possible, before becoming slightly above average into early October.

At longer lead times, confidence inevitably decreases. As day-to-day weather variations become increasingly less predictable, forecasts focus on broader trends rather than specifics.

This is why long-range outlooks describe potential patterns and probabilities for a month or three-month period rather than exact conditions for a particular day or location.