Category: Commentary

Thursday 24th September
Although Wednesday started sunny, the cold weather front spoilt the middle part of the day with variable cloud, however, as the back edge of the weather front eased away the sun appeared again early afternoon that lifted the temperature to a maximum of 21.2C at 15.04 being 2.2C above average.

Under relatively clear skies, calm conditions again and the cooler air that arrived behind the cold front, the temperature dropped away to reach a low of 7.4C at 02.17 early Thursday being 2.2C below my long-term average.

Muted weak sunshine greeted the new day on Thursday through thin high cloud after a very red sky at sunrise. Today will bring variable cloud and sunny periods with the thermometer once again rising above the September average. The radar indicates a bank of cloud edging down from the northwest this morning that hopefully might thin and clear mid-afternoon.

As the centre of the high pressure relocates towards the Continent on Friday the direction of the air flow will once again change, to come from the north, whilst two weather fronts, both cold, are forecast to pass over on Friday into Saturday morning that will see maximum temperatures edge downwards.

Forecast pressure charts indicate that the recent high pressure will lose control of our weather by Saturday as we begin to come under the influence of twin low pressure systems to the north and northwest of the UK. This will see the breakdown of our recent dry and warm weather to be replaced with a more unsettled outlook with possible rain in a week’s time at the end of the month.

Record-Breaking El Niño Surpasses Previous Benchmarks

Author: Met Office
Tue, 22 Sep 2026

The developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which scientists have been monitoring closely for many months, has now exceeded previous records, making it the strongest event in the observational record.

While forecasts had consistently indicated that 2026 could see an unprecedented El Niño, the latest observations confirm sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now surpassed levels recorded during any previous event.

This milestone represents a significant moment and is likely to have far-reaching impacts on weather patterns around the world. The Met Office will continue to monitor developments closely as the event builds towards its seasonal peak later this year.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs when sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average. These changes alter atmospheric circulation patterns and can influence weather around the globe.

For the UK that means an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions during autumn and early winter, while later in the season El Nino is associated with an increased risk of cold snaps.

Wednesday 23rd September
Tuesday was a disappointing day, being spoilt by a blanket of cloud that developed over our area, and to the north, whilst just twenty miles to the south there were many hours of almost wall to wall sunshine, right down to the south coast. There was a little brightness mid-afternoon before the cloud thickened again late afternoon. However, the almost total calm under the warmer air that had previously arrived from the south, meant a warm day with the maximum of 23.4C being 4.4C above average. The past night was mild with a minimum of 11.5C at 06.20 on Wednesday.

The very significant feature of Tuesday was the almost complete absence of any air movement for many continuous hours.

The sun did not at first appear on Wednesday morning due to a band of cloud on the eastern horizon, however, just after 08.00 the sun rose above the cloud and began to shine strongly with the promise of a warm and dry day ahead, but no sustained strong sunshine.

A cold front will cross from the north as the morning progresses, that will bring cloudier conditions, which will significantly limit the sunshine after around mid-morning turning into sunny periods. We are currently in a clear area between cloud banks that will soon fill in. Later today the breeze will pick up and veer from the west into the north.

Tomorrow the high will emigrate towards the east that will see the breeze pick up a little and swing from the north to come from the south, still with light winds. Being still under high pressure it will mean another fine and dry day and likely be very warm. In fact there is no indication of rain before Sunday, at the moment.

The forecast pressure charts indicate that the current high pressure will slowly migrate eastwards as we approach Friday and Saturday when a new ridge of high pressure will arrive from the southwest continuing the run of calm, warm and dry weather.

As today is the autumnal equinox, the start of astronomical autumn, I will start a new series of autumnal images. The leaves are slowly beginning to change colour with the first batch of pictures taken at Stourhead in Wiltshire.

Tuesday 22nd September
The warmth built on Monday, after a slow start, that eventually peaked at 23.9C being 4.7C above my long-term average with the sun very strong in the afternoon. The peak barometric pressure of 1033.5mb was the highest since last December that occurred at 11.12 as the centre of the high was almost overhead.

There was very little air movement after a calm night, being under the high pressure. In fact during the night when the anemometer was stationary, gossamer threads had floated in the still air and wrapped themselves around the high anemometer, which I had to remove with an extended pole.

The past night again saw the air become still after 20.00 with no moment overnight. Under those conditions and clear skies the temperature dropped to a minimum of 9.8C that was just above the September average.

Tuesday after first light revealed foggy conditions. The moisture in the atmosphere had condensed in the early hours to form fog that limited visibility to 200m at its most dense point, an hour after sunrise at 06.52 in Marlborough, that took until just before 08.00 to burn away and restore visibility to almost normal. After the fog had cleared there was high, thin cloud that obscured the sun for the first part of the morning.

The latest cloud radar (09.00) indicated that a bank of high, thin cloud had replaced the fog that could result in sunny intervals today, not wall to wall sunshine as yesterday.

The slight relocation of the centre of the anticyclone to the east will produce a light breeze today, but significantly, it has backed into the south, which will mean an even warmer day today.

The high pressure over the next few days will slowly edge eastwards that will result in the air flow from Thursday onwards coming from a more southeasterly direction that will see maximum temperatures drop closer to the seasonal average, but little sign of any rain until possibly next week.

The forecast track of the jet stream indicates that it will make a significant change in direction after the weekend and not loop north over the UK that has allowed the high pressure to arrive from the warmer south. It appears that the track will be more direct across the Atlantic probably heralding a change to more unsettled weather from Tuesday onwards.

The image is of a spider hacking constructed its web under the still, moist conditions overnight.

Monday 21st September
The variable sunshine on Sunday morning very slowly lifted the temperature but it wasn’t until around midday that the sun began to shine more strongly that resulted in a maximum of 19.7C at 15.48, being 0.7C above average. By the late afternoon the sun was very strong, thanks to clear air and skies from the northwesterly light breeze that also limited the rise in temperature.

The past night was very cool due to clear skies and the lingering cool air from the northwest that produced a minimum of 5.4C, which was logged at 06.27 on Monday, just before sunrise in Marlborough at 06.51. The lack of air movement also contributed to the low temperature as the breeze dropped out just after 21.00, with a light whisper just before midnight, and the anemometer stationary since then and up to this morning. Due to the much later sunrise at this time of year there was little rise in temperature initially that meant by 08.00 the thermometer had only reached 6.8C, which was the coldest night since 16th May (3.3C) and the coolest start to a new day at that time since 15th May.

Monday got off to a good start with the sun shining as it rose above the horizon through very thin, high cloud. We have a splendid day ahead although variable cloud might spill in from the northwest mid-morning, there is a divergence of opinion between the two main forecasters, however, with much sunshine the temperature will rise several degrees above the late September average. The cloud cover radar indicated at 10.00 that the cloud will stay to the west over Wales.

The centre of the anticyclone is almost overhead with a very high barometric pressure reading of 1032.9mb at 08.00, which is the highest pressure reading since last December. The high pressure will mean warm, sunny days with variable cloud and calm conditions this week before the wind veers into a more northerly direction on Thursday that will see the temperature drop a degree or two, but still above average.

The high pressure will stay with us until probably Friday when it will slide away eastwards whilst a deep depression edges in from the northwest that will attempt to usher in a weather front across the country behind the departing anticyclone, when maximum temperatures will likely return to around average.

Sunday 20th September
Saturday morning was dry but increasingly cloudy as the weather front edged closer, which was why the maximum of 20.9C was logged just after midday at 13.03, just before the thicker cloud and accompanying drizzle arrived. The high was 1.9C above my September average. The drizzle at 13.15 was light from the leading edge of the weather front that produced light rain at 17.00 with another light burst just before midnight that eventually totalled 2.8mm. The low of 13.9C, logged at 07.36 on Sunday morning was 4.4C above average.

Only three days this month have produced a maximum below average whilst just four nights have been below average.

Sunday arrived with thin high cloud that was thick enough to block out sunshine. However, there is hope that as the morning progresses gaps will appear in the thinning cloud and sunshine will arrive. The peak temperature today will be closer to the average partly due to the reduced sunshine but also to the change in wind direction that will come from the northwest, a cooler direction, moderating the rise in temperature.

At 08.30 as I finish this report there is evidence of the cloud thinning as the back edge of the cloud from the weather front moves away with areas of blue sky appearing from the west.

The high pressure has been slowly building over the past twenty-four hours and will begin to influence our weather later today and into next week that will bring us sunny, warm days with maximum temperatures several degrees above the average, then will fall a little lower from mid-week. The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 1024.0mb, the highest all month. A very pleasant, dry and warm week is ahead.

Over the next two days the wind will slowly veer from north to east as the anticyclone relocates little further east, and then by Wednesday return to come from a westerly quadrant. The next few nights are likely to be cool that could see mist form in the early hours as the moisture in the atmosphere condenses as the temperature falls away.

This is the last part of the Met Office press release from last Thursday regarding the startling weather headlines in some recent press reports.

Are 34 parts of the country going to be soaked?

Recent weather headlines have focused on everything from a late September “heat bomb” and temperatures approaching 30°C to a “brutal” chill and dozens of areas being soaked.

But, how do these claims compare with the latest Met Office forecast?

Headlines often draw attention to the most striking outcome shown by an individual weather map or forecast model run.

While the temperatures or rainfall shown may be possible, they do not always represent the most likely outcome or reflect the uncertainty and regional variation within a longer-range forecast.

Another eye-catching headline reads: “UK weather maps show the 34 parts of the country due to be soaked – full list”.
The forecast does indicate that some rain is possible, especially in the far northwest.

However, it also states that a good part of the UK is likely to be dry between 23 and 25 September.

More changeable weather may become established across a wider area during October, but western and northwestern parts of the UK are most likely to experience the wettest conditions. There is also a small risk of some very strong winds, although this is normal for the time of year.

A list of locations shown beneath rain on one forecast map should therefore not be interpreted as confirmation that every area will experience prolonged or particularly heavy rainfall.