Monday 14th September
The meandering and loitering weather front on Sunday produced a damp day from the very moist air stream and regular banks of drizzle or light rain passing overhead that produced just 1.6mm of precipitation. The warm, southwesterly air stream meant not only a damp day but a relatively warm day as the thermometer reached a maximum of 20.3C at 15.51, which was 1.3C above average. The past night was mild due to the continuing cloud cover and warm air stream as the thermometer did not drop below 16.9C, logged at 01.55, which was a significant 7.4C above average.
Monday dawned dull with the cloud base still low from a wiggling weather front that will be slow to move away, which means another overcast day with little likelihood of any sunshine and possible light precipitation late morning. By 08.00 the thermometer had risen just a little to read 17.7C.
Today will be the warmest day all week and probably all month under the continuing flow of warm air from the Atlantic on a southwesterly air stream. As we move into Tuesday the wind will make a subtle change from southwest to west, a slightly cooler airstream that by Wednesday will arrive from south of Iceland on a west-northwest air flow, resulting in temperatures for the rest of the week not rising above average.
The forecast pressure charts indicate that by Thursday we should expect a warm front to arrive containing more cloud and possible precipitation as the wind will back into the southwest again, returning to a warmer air flow.
What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn?
Author: Met Office
Fri, 11 Sep 2026
As we have moved into meteorological autumn, many are asking what the coming months might have in store for UK weather.
Alongside increased interest in what is likely to be a record-breaking El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, the latest Met Office seasonal outlook suggests an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions during autumn.
While seasonal forecasting cannot predict exactly what the weather will do on any given day, current evidence suggests conditions later this autumn and into early winter may be more unsettled than is typical for the time of year.
What does the three-month outlook tell us?
The latest Met Office 3-Month Outlook indicates the chances of a warm and wet autumn for the UK are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than would normally be expected. An increased likelihood of windy conditions also emerges later in the season.
The Met Office 3-Month Outlook provides guidance on how likely conditions are to differ from what would normally be expected for the season, rather than predicting specific weather events. Seasonal outlooks are designed to indicate changes in risk at a national scale rather than predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather may occur.
It is important to stress that seasonal outlooks cannot predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather will occur, nor do they forecast the number of storms, wet days or severe weather events that may develop.
This remains an emerging and cutting-edge area of science and, while forecasting skill is continually improving, seasonal outlooks allow us to understand changes in risk and likelihood rather than provide certainty months in advance. As confidence in the seasonal outlook evolves, the Met Office will continue to assess the situation.
This continues tomorrow