Sunday 13th September
The sun broke through late morning on Saturday that was very strong in the afternoon, which boosted the temperature to a maximum of 22.9C at 15.56, being 3.9C above average. It was another dry day with the UV level at the top end of the Medium category.
The cloud from the next weather front arrived during the evening and thickened overnight that gave us a very mild night with a minimum of 17.4C, which was a significant 7.9C above my long-term average. It was the second warmest night after 17.6C was logged on the morning of the 3rd.
After first light on Sunday it was evident the trailing arm of the weather front, a warm front, had arrived as the cloud base was very low, draping the tops of the Marlborough Downs. At 07.00 the visibility noticeably worsened as drizzle, then very light rain arrived, that had ceased by 07.30 and amounted to just 0.2mm. There might be more light precipitation this morning, but if so it will be drizzle or very, short lived light rain, as the weather front is very slow moving. The radar indicates that there is broken, showery cloud heading eastwards from Wales at the moment, that might impact our area later in the morning.
We have a warm, cloudy day ahead thanks to the flow of moist air off the Atlantic, brought on a westerly air stream, and the cloud from the back edge of the slow moving weather front. The high pressure to the southwest is still holding off any forward movement from the Atlantic depression to the north of the country.
By late Tuesday the high pressure will have migrated eastwards, over the Continent, that will allow the depression to edge closer. The slight change in position will see the wind veer more into the west-northwest or northwest, a cooler direction, hence the temperature is likely to drop back below average from Wednesday.
Simon King
Lead Met Office Weather Presenter
A new hurricane season record is likely to be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic.
To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average – and there’s no sign of development in the near future.
It means a new record is likely to be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming.
Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013.
In an average season, there would have been eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes by this point.
This year, however, there have only been five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.
With few indications that there will be any development in the next week, this will mean the longest stretch into in a season where no hurricane has formed in the modern satellite era.