Tuesday 15th September
After an overcast and damp morning on Monday with light drizzle, the afternoon was very pleasant and warm with strong sunshine that lifted the temperature to a maximum of 24.1C, which was 5.1C above average. The last of the flow of warm air overnight gave us another mild night that saw the thermometer not drop below a minimum of 15.6C, unusually late in the early morning at 07.16, which was 45 minutes after the official sunrise time of 06.41 in Marlborough.
After a cloudy start to the new day on Tuesday there was brief sunshine until around 08.15 when cloud drifted across from the west, obliterating the sun, thanks to the arrival of a weather front. The rain radar indicates a narrow band of rain from the first weather front that might produce short lived precipitation from around 09.00.
The two cold fronts are crossing the country today with their associated cloud, but hopefully later in the morning or early afternoon the cloud will thin and break up allowing the sun to break through. The wind will make a subtle change in direction from the recent southwesterly, which was mild and moist, to west then northwest as the day progresses. This slight change in direction will bring us a cooler and dryer airstream today, hence the name cold front, with maxima around or just below average for the rest of the working week before it rises again over the weekend.
Wednesday will see a temporary ridge of high pressure push back across the country that will bring us a day of sunny intervals.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist, lan Lisk, said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.
“However, El Niño is only one of several factors affecting the UK’s weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.
‘We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.”
What does the latest long-range (30-day) forecast show?
The latest Met Office long-range forecast suggests a generally changeable pattern through the remainder of September and into early October, there will also be spells of drier and more settled weather, especially in the south. Towards the end of September, high pressure may become more influential, bringing a greater chance of settled conditions for a time.
Temperatures are expected to be close to average overall through the remainder of September, with some rather warm days possible, before becoming slightly above average into early October.
At longer lead times, confidence inevitably decreases. As day-to-day weather variations become increasingly less predictable, forecasts focus on broader trends rather than specifics.
This is why long-range outlooks describe potential patterns and probabilities for a month or three-month period rather than exact conditions for a particular day or location.