Sunday 20th September
Saturday morning was dry but increasingly cloudy as the weather front edged closer, which was why the maximum of 20.9C was logged just after midday at 13.03, just before the thicker cloud and accompanying drizzle arrived. The high was 1.9C above my September average. The drizzle at 13.15 was light from the leading edge of the weather front that produced light rain at 17.00 with another light burst just before midnight that eventually totalled 2.8mm. The low of 13.9C, logged at 07.36 on Sunday morning was 4.4C above average.
Only three days this month have produced a maximum below average whilst just four nights have been below average.
Sunday arrived with thin high cloud that was thick enough to block out sunshine. However, there is hope that as the morning progresses gaps will appear in the thinning cloud and sunshine will arrive. The peak temperature today will be closer to the average partly due to the reduced sunshine but also to the change in wind direction that will come from the northwest, a cooler direction, moderating the rise in temperature.
At 08.30 as I finish this report there is evidence of the cloud thinning as the back edge of the cloud from the weather front moves away with areas of blue sky appearing from the west.
The high pressure has been slowly building over the past twenty-four hours and will begin to influence our weather later today and into next week that will bring us sunny, warm days with maximum temperatures several degrees above the average, then will fall a little lower from mid-week. The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 1024.0mb, the highest all month. A very pleasant, dry and warm week is ahead.
Over the next two days the wind will slowly veer from north to east as the anticyclone relocates little further east, and then by Wednesday return to come from a westerly quadrant. The next few nights are likely to be cool that could see mist form in the early hours as the moisture in the atmosphere condenses as the temperature falls away.
This is the last part of the Met Office press release from last Thursday regarding the startling weather headlines in some recent press reports.
Are 34 parts of the country going to be soaked?
Recent weather headlines have focused on everything from a late September “heat bomb” and temperatures approaching 30°C to a “brutal” chill and dozens of areas being soaked.
But, how do these claims compare with the latest Met Office forecast?
Headlines often draw attention to the most striking outcome shown by an individual weather map or forecast model run.
While the temperatures or rainfall shown may be possible, they do not always represent the most likely outcome or reflect the uncertainty and regional variation within a longer-range forecast.
Another eye-catching headline reads: “UK weather maps show the 34 parts of the country due to be soaked – full list”.
The forecast does indicate that some rain is possible, especially in the far northwest.
However, it also states that a good part of the UK is likely to be dry between 23 and 25 September.
More changeable weather may become established across a wider area during October, but western and northwestern parts of the UK are most likely to experience the wettest conditions. There is also a small risk of some very strong winds, although this is normal for the time of year.
A list of locations shown beneath rain on one forecast map should therefore not be interpreted as confirmation that every area will experience prolonged or particularly heavy rainfall.