Sunday 31st May
Saturday gave us the last of the very sunny and warm days, in fact the UV level reading of 7.4 was the highest since 16th July 2025 that put it in the ‘Very High’ category. Aa a result of the strong sunshine the temperature rose higher than forecast with a maximum of 26.2C at 14.21 before variable thin cloud began to drift in from the west. The last night was mild that saw the thermometer not drop below 12.1C at 02.15, very early in Sunday morning. The high was 8.9C above my long-term average whilst the minimum was 5.1C above my May average.
We have now enjoyed, or endured, 12 consecutive days with maxima above average and 14 consecutive nights when the minimum was above average. The anticyclone has meant we have had 12 consecutive days, including today, without any measurable precipitation.
Today is the last day of meteorological Spring that saw the sun breakthrough just before 08.00 between variable cloud. A weak, cold front is currently crossing the country which will mean a predominantly cloudy mooring and with possible sunshine late in the afternoon as the cloud associated with the back edge of the weather front eases away to the east.
We are now coming under an Atlantic weather pattern with cooler and more moist air off the Atlantic brought by an air stream predominantly from a southwesterly or westerly quarter. The week ahead will be much cooler with both maxima and minima probably just below the June average, for the beginning of meteorological summer, along with variable shower activity.
The forecast pressure charts are now showing increasing confidence that a depression will arrive off the west coast of the UK on Monday, pushing ahead of it two weather fronts and also contained within it a ‘trough’, a small disturbed area of lower pressure. These conditions are likely to produce substantial rain Monday evening and overnight, which will be very welcome news for gardeners.
Hotter days give a ‘head start’
The Met Office’s State of the Climate 2024 report shows that in parts of the UK the hottest days are warming around twice as fast as typical days. Compared with 1961-1990, the number of days 5C above average has doubled, while days 10C above average have quadrupled
Or as Dr Berthou expresses it: “Extreme temperatures are increasing faster than average temperatures.”
Summer daytime highs are already about 1.5C warmer when comparing the 1991-2020 climate period with 1961-1990.
After the UK hit 40.3 C in July 2022, Met Office studies showed the likelihood of exceeding 40C is now more than 20 times higher than in the 1960s.
The higher baseline – or head start – means similar summer weather patterns now reach heatwave and extreme heat thresholds more easily.