Friday 31st October
The past twenty four hours gave us a reversal of the usual temperature trends. The minimum over that period was 5.2C when we started Thursday at 08.00, usually the following morning is the low point. The warmth built during the morning to reach 12.3C at 13.10, before dropping back to 10.9C at 17.00. During the late evening the thermometer began to climb slowly to reach the peak of the past twenty-four hours with a maximum of 13.1C at 01.01 early Saturday morning. The temperature at 08.00 was 12.9C, which made it the warmest start to a day at that time this month since the 3rd.
This reversal of the usual temperature trend was due to a steady stream of very warm, moist air brought on a southerly breeze from around Iberia, that continued all night, never dropping out.
The first light rainfall began at 22.20 and contoured intermittently between 23.00 and 02.00 that amounted to 2.4mm. That additional rainfall took the monthly total to 62.2mm, using my standard Met Office copper rain gauge, being just 68% of my 41-year record.
A large area of heavy rain is making its way northwards across Ireland this morning, thus will miss us. However, a large area of heavy rain arrived over the Brest peninsula at 06.00 and by 08.00 had moved northwards to reach Jersey. Its northwards track is uncertain but it is likely to bring us rainfall later in the morning.
The deep low-pressure system that arrived yesterday off the west coast is forecast to slowly edge northwards to position itself off the northwest coast of Scotland by Sunday. This will continue the trend of sunshine and showers combined with breezy, gusty conditions, over the weekend. The centre of the depression had a very low pressure reading of just 957mb at midnight.
There have been headlines in the press speculating when ex-Hurricane Melissa will ‘smash’ into the UK. A Met Office official explained: “It looks like late on Sunday and into early Monday, a low-pressure system containing the remnants of what will then be ex-Hurricane Melissa will move across the far northwest of the UK. This appears to be a fairly typical autumn low-pressure system for the UK, introducing some milder air and bringing further spells of rain, which will be heaviest over western hills. There remains some uncertainty in the exact track of this low at this range, however it looks set to usher in further unsettled weather next week.”