Thursday 11th June
After a dull start to Wednesday, with light rain at 08.30 amounting to just 0.6mm, it brightened up with much sunshine in the afternoon, however, the continuing cool westerly breeze once again meant that the temperature was depressed during daylight hours. The maximum of only 16.9C was 3.8C below average, logged at 15.32. Initially, under relatively clear skies, the temperature fell steadily to reach a minimum of 8.3C, which was identical to the previous night. The back track of the cloud radar showed broken cloud drifting across after 03.00 and total cloud cover by 04.00, which was why the temperature then began to creep upwards to reach 10.9C at 08.00.
Thursday began dull with total cloud cover and the first spots of rain, from an advancing weather front, observed at 06.45, but the real rain arrived at 07.45, and then only light in nature. The pressure charts indicate that two weather fronts will cross the UK today that will result in a wet morning with the cloud beginning to thin mid-afternoon with perhaps some late afternoon sunshine as the back edge of the second weather front eases away.
To the southwest there are signs that the high pressure is edging towards the UK, which will by tomorrow result in a dry and bright day, probably not a lot of sunshine, with the temperature edging upwards after a much warmer night. That situation will please gardeners after the last very cool nights that has seen the ground temperature at a depth of 5cm, read at 08.00, drop significantly recently with 14.2C, 13.0C, 11.9C and 11.3C respectively. The cool days and nights have restricted the early growth of plants in the garden even though we have had welcome rainfall.
The forecast track of the jet stream, looping to the north over the UK, will put us on the southern warmer side that will allow high pressure to the southwest develop and edge over the UK. This significant change will give us a few fine, dry days with temperatures, thankfully, edging above average. The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 1020.4mb, the highest pressure this month.
There have been headlines recently about a possboe heatwave on the way. I attach some comments from the Met Office.
Why the forecast is uncertain
A key message with this forecast is the level of uncertainty. The positioning and strength of the developing area of high pressure remain unclear, and this has a major influence on the extent and intensity of any warm air across the UK.
Forecast confidence is therefore limited in terms of both the exact temperature ranges and how widespread the warmest conditions will be. This uncertainty means that while some locations may briefly flirt with higher temperatures, a consistent and widespread heat signal is not evident at this stage.
Not a repeat of late May
It is important to emphasise that this setup is very different to the conditions seen at the end of May. Those earlier high temperatures were associated with a well-established and persistent area of high pressure, allowing for several consecutive days of strong sunshine, light winds and steadily rising temperatures.
In contrast, the current situation is less settled. The high pressure expected this weekend is weaker and less firmly in place, with the potential for cloud, showers and breezier conditions to interrupt any warm spells.
Crucially, official heatwave criteria require temperatures to meet or exceed specific thresholds over several consecutive days. At present, there is little evidence to suggest that these conditions will be met across a wide enough area for long enough to constitute a formal heatwave.
We are now at the cygnet season at Abbotsbury Swannery giving visitors the rare chance to witness the hatching of fluffy grey cygnets. Feeding the herd is by hand and is a special part of a visit, which occurs around midday and 16.00, daily.