Friday 27th March
The gusty northwesterly breeze on Thursday meant another below average maximum, but only just at -0.6C. The peak of 10.2C was logged at 15.30 during the welcome afternoon sunshine. Cloud built up late afternoon, and thickened overnight, so a less cold night with the thermometer dropping to 6.0C (+3.4C) at 00.32, early Friday.
The surface pressure charts show a cold front is advancing across the country today, Friday, which is the reason for the thick cloud that will likely produce rain during the morning and into the first part of the afternoon, probably light by nature.
Saturday will be quite a contrast to Friday due to another transitory ridge of higher pressure building from the Azores High, that will result in a dry, sunny day, but only average temperatures, thanks to a brisk westerly breeze.
The outlook is for the cool theme to continue over the weekend with maxima around average. We will have to wait until at least Monday for any return to warmer days, when the Azores high is forecast to build more consistently across the country.
I attach the latest report from the Met Office.
10-day trend: A changeable outlook as March gives way to April
The next 10 days will continue to reflect the unsettled nature of early spring, with a repeated pattern of weather systems moving in from the north and west, interspersed with quieter, drier spells.
While there are signs that high pressure will increasingly influence the UK’s weather as we move into early April, temperatures are likely to fluctuate, and colder air will never be far away.
The bigger picture: jet stream and pressure patterns
A key driver of the forecast over the coming days is the position of the jet stream. It is expected to remain in an amplified pattern to the north and west of the UK. This configuration encourages low pressure systems to track close to or just north of the country, while areas of higher pressure build at times from the south and west.
High pressure generally brings drier conditions and lighter winds, while low pressure is associated with cloud, rain and stronger winds. Over the next 10 days, the UK is likely to sit between these competing influences, leading to a stop-start feel to the weather rather than any prolonged settled spell.