Author: Eric Gilbert

Monday 14th September
The meandering and loitering weather front on Sunday produced a damp day from the very moist air stream and regular banks of drizzle or light rain passing overhead that produced just 1.6mm of precipitation. The warm, southwesterly air stream meant not only a damp day but a relatively warm day as the thermometer reached a maximum of 20.3C at 15.51, which was 1.3C above average. The past night was mild due to the continuing cloud cover and warm air stream as the thermometer did not drop below 16.9C, logged at 01.55, which was a significant 7.4C above average.

Monday dawned dull with the cloud base still low from a wiggling weather front that will be slow to move away, which means another overcast day with little likelihood of any sunshine and possible light precipitation late morning. By 08.00 the thermometer had risen just a little to read 17.7C.

Today will be the warmest day all week and probably all month under the continuing flow of warm air from the Atlantic on a southwesterly air stream. As we move into Tuesday the wind will make a subtle change from southwest to west, a slightly cooler airstream that by Wednesday will arrive from south of Iceland on a west-northwest air flow, resulting in temperatures for the rest of the week not rising above average.

The forecast pressure charts indicate that by Thursday we should expect a warm front to arrive containing more cloud and possible precipitation as the wind will back into the southwest again, returning to a warmer air flow.

What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn?

Author: Met Office
Fri, 11 Sep 2026

As we have moved into meteorological autumn, many are asking what the coming months might have in store for UK weather.

Alongside increased interest in what is likely to be a record-breaking El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, the latest Met Office seasonal outlook suggests an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions during autumn.

While seasonal forecasting cannot predict exactly what the weather will do on any given day, current evidence suggests conditions later this autumn and into early winter may be more unsettled than is typical for the time of year.

What does the three-month outlook tell us?

The latest Met Office 3-Month Outlook indicates the chances of a warm and wet autumn for the UK are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than would normally be expected. An increased likelihood of windy conditions also emerges later in the season.

The Met Office 3-Month Outlook provides guidance on how likely conditions are to differ from what would normally be expected for the season, rather than predicting specific weather events. Seasonal outlooks are designed to indicate changes in risk at a national scale rather than predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather may occur.

It is important to stress that seasonal outlooks cannot predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather will occur, nor do they forecast the number of storms, wet days or severe weather events that may develop.
This remains an emerging and cutting-edge area of science and, while forecasting skill is continually improving, seasonal outlooks allow us to understand changes in risk and likelihood rather than provide certainty months in advance. As confidence in the seasonal outlook evolves, the Met Office will continue to assess the situation.

This continues tomorrow

Sunday 13th September
The sun broke through late morning on Saturday that was very strong in the afternoon, which boosted the temperature to a maximum of 22.9C at 15.56, being 3.9C above average. It was another dry day with the UV level at the top end of the Medium category.

The cloud from the next weather front arrived during the evening and thickened overnight that gave us a very mild night with a minimum of 17.4C, which was a significant 7.9C above my long-term average. It was the second warmest night after 17.6C was logged on the morning of the 3rd.

After first light on Sunday it was evident the trailing arm of the weather front, a warm front, had arrived as the cloud base was very low, draping the tops of the Marlborough Downs. At 07.00 the visibility noticeably worsened as drizzle, then very light rain arrived, that had ceased by 07.30 and amounted to just 0.2mm. There might be more light precipitation this morning, but if so it will be drizzle or very, short lived light rain, as the weather front is very slow moving. The radar indicates that there is broken, showery cloud heading eastwards from Wales at the moment, that might impact our area later in the morning.

We have a warm, cloudy day ahead thanks to the flow of moist air off the Atlantic, brought on a westerly air stream, and the cloud from the back edge of the slow moving weather front. The high pressure to the southwest is still holding off any forward movement from the Atlantic depression to the north of the country.

By late Tuesday the high pressure will have migrated eastwards, over the Continent, that will allow the depression to edge closer. The slight change in position will see the wind veer more into the west-northwest or northwest, a cooler direction, hence the temperature is likely to drop back below average from Wednesday.

Simon King
Lead Met Office Weather Presenter

A new hurricane season record is likely to be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic.

To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average – and there’s no sign of development in the near future.

It means a new record is likely to be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming.

Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013.

In an average season, there would have been eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes by this point.

This year, however, there have only been five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.
With few indications that there will be any development in the next week, this will mean the longest stretch into in a season where no hurricane has formed in the modern satellite era.

Saturday 12th September
The sun was very strong on Friday, especially during the afternoon, that pushed the temperature to a maximum of 22.3C at 15.15, which was 3.3C above average. With calm conditions since midnight until just after dawn, and a clear sky, it was not surprising to find the past night was cool that produced a minimum of 8.4C at 04.43, being 1.1C below average.

Saturday arrived with variable thin high cloud to the east. However, the first signs of the approaching bank of cloud could be seen arriving from the west that will blot out the sun later in the morning and for the rest of the day.

The high pressure to the south is trying to hold back weather fronts arriving from the north, however, as the day progresses a cold front is forecast to drift down across the country bringing thicker cloud that might produce a little precipitation early Sunday morning.

As Monday turns into Tuesday the recent depression to the north is forecast to drift away over Scandinavia that will allow a ridge of high pressure to push northwards, to the west of the UK. This will result in a significant change in wind direction, veering from a southwesterly quadrant, warm and moist, to northwest, which will usher in a cooler and drier air stream with temperatures dropping back to around or just below the September average. There appears to be little, if any, possible rainfall throughout next week, a week of sunny intervals and variable cloud.

Friday 11th September
Thursday was a pleasant sunny day with the thermometer rising to 19.2C at 13.07 being 0.2C above average. More cloud drifted across in the afternoon also the wind became quite gusty, hence no further rose in temperature. This was due to a couple of warm fronts crossing the UK with their associated cloud. During the evening a couple of very weak, fragmented bands of showers crossed the country that amounted to just 0.8mm. The slightly warmer air behind the warm front, combined with total overnight cloud cover, resulted in a minimum of 13.7C at 05.42 early Friday being 4.2C above average.

Friday after first light revealed low cloud draping the tops of the Marlborough Downs from the back edge of the last weather front and no sunshine. However, a weak cold weather front is heading south that could thicken cloud cover around midday. Hopefully, the clouds might thin and allow a little sunshine to break through that could then lift the maximum above average. The breeze has veered into the northwest that is a slightly drier airstream.

Saturday will be a much brighter, sunnier day as a ridge of high pressure will continue to push back across the country squeezing out any shower activity. Sunday is likely to be a significant contrast with much more cloud and possible light precipitation during the morning.

When does astronomical autumn begin?

Astronomical autumn begins with the autumn equinox, which usually falls on 22 or 23 September each year. During the equinox, the Sun shines directly above the Earth’s equator, resulting in day and night being nearly equal in length across the globe.

Unlike meteorological seasons, astronomical seasons are determined by the Earth’s position in its orbit around the Sun. Because the Earth’s orbit is not perfectly uniform, the exact date of the equinox can vary slightly from year to year.

After the autumn equinox, nights become longer than days in the Northern Hemisphere, continuing until the spring equinox the following year.

Thursday 10th September
The sunny intervals on Wednesday meant a slight recovery in the daytime temperature, compared to Tuesday, with the thermometer rising to 18.9C at 15.39 being 0.1C below average. It was a dry day with the UV level now reduced to a Moderate level, but we are almost three months away from mid-summer. The temperature fell away quite quickly before midnight then levelling off with a loss of about 1C every hour until reaching a minimum of 6.3C at 05.52. The low was 3.2C below my long-term average.

There was very brief brightness on the eastern horizon on Thursday after dawn as the sun rose through thin high cloud, however, it was evident that thicker cloud was already slowly edging in from the west that had obliterated the sun by around 07.45. Thus a predominantly cool and cloudy day ahead. The rain radar at 08.30 indicated well separated bands of showery rain running along the coastal areas of Devon and Dorset but unlikely to reach our area.

The next few days will see the northern edge of the high pressure ebb and flow as the depression to the north attempts to push weather fronts down across the country. The first of those will arrive late Thursday afternoon and into the evening, probably just thick cloud with little precipitation anticipated.

This pattern will continue up to the weekend with another possible weather front and its associated cloud pushing down on Saturday. The pattern can be summed as sunny intervals with much more cloud than previous weeks.

When does Autumn start?

Author: Met Office
Wed, 02 Sep 2026

As summer draws to a close and the first signs of changing leaves begin to appear, many people start asking the same question: when does autumn actually begin?

The answer depends on which definition you use.

While some people consider autumn to begin on 1 September, others wait until later in the month. Both approaches are correct, but they are based on different ways of defining the seasons.

Autumn: a season of transition

Autumn is the transition season between summer and winter. It is often associated with cooler temperatures, harvest time and the gradual transformation of the landscape as leaves turn shades of yellow, orange, red and brown.

Across the UK, autumn can bring a striking change in weather patterns. Warm spells are still possible, particularly during September, but temperatures generally begin to decline as the season progresses. At the same time, daylight hours shorten and the likelihood of wetter and windier weather increases.

When does meteorological autumn begin?

Meteorological autumn always begins on 1 September and ends on 30 November. This definition divides the year into four fixed seasons, each lasting three complete calendar months. Autumn therefore consists of September, October and November.

Meteorologists use this system because it aligns neatly with annual temperature cycles and makes it easier to compare weather and climate statistics between different years and seasons. Using fixed dates provides consistency when analysing long-term climate records and producing seasonal summaries.

For this reason, the Met Office and other meteorological organisations use the meteorological definition when discussing seasonal weather and climate.