Saturday July 4th
The Azores high began to dominate our weather on Friday as the temperature began to climb well above average (+3.0C) with a maximum of 25.9C at 17.45, but not a heatwave, yet. The past night was mild with a minimum of 13.7C at 01.23 early Saturday, which was 1.7C above average. The temperature did not fall further as the night progressed as the radar showed variable, then thick cloud drift across from the northwest after midnight, limiting any further loss of warmth into the atmosphere.
The cloud was still evident on Saturday morning giving dull and murky conditions with only a very slow increase in temperature that produced a reading of 16.7C at 08.00. It is forecast for the cloud to thin and break after midday.
The forecast pressure charts indicate that the high pressure will dominate our weather for at least the next week with maxima well above average and likely to produce heatwave conditions again from Sunday. However, at the moment there is no consistent estimate how hot it might get. I found this morning the following explanation from the experts.
The focus of the uncertainty is around how hot, for how long and where we’ll be seeing the hottest conditions.
Currently, the forecast is still evolving day to day.
That means details on the westerly and easterly boundary of the heat, how extensive this will be across the UK and how long the heat will last are all changeable factors.
It will become clearer in the next 24-48 hours.
Why are the details not set yet?
Here in the UK, meteorologists look at three main sets of information to create forecasts – including the UK Met Office, and European and US-sourced data.
Over the next few days, the three versions of weather data are not aligned when it comes to the maximum temperatures we can expect next week.
Skomer Island, off the Pembrokeshire coast in Wales, is home to a record-breaking colony of over 52,000 Atlantic Puffins.