Wednesday 11th February
Tuesday gave us a damp morning, but mild, that saw the temperature slowly rose to a peak of 10.1C at 14.02, being 1.8C above average. There was steady rain in the afternoon, heavy just before 16.00 and a few splashes in the early hours of Wednesday that in total added another 10.1mm to my monthly total, standing at 75.6mm.
Wednesday arrived damp and gloomy with light rain and drizzle under thick cloud with the base once again draping the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest. There is the hope of a slight improvement after midday that will see the rain cease and hopefully, some brightness for a couple of hours.
As we approach Friday the wind will veer from south to west on Thursday, and northeast on Friday that will result in a significant drop in temperatures by day and night, with a possible frost Friday night into Saturday. Saturday will also be cool but with the wind beginning to back into the northwest, there will be a halt to the drop in temperature. The following week appears to return to the damp conditions with several days forecast to bring more rain.
A transitory ridge of high pressure is likely to edge across the country from Friday night that will give us a dry and, hopefully, sunny day on Saturday before Sunday clouds over again.
The monthly rainfall total now exceeds my 42-year average, being 111% this morning, with more rain to come. The wettest winter was the winter of 2013/2014 when 528mm of precipitation was recorded. The rainfall for the winters since the station began in 1984 show a gradual rise in the trend from an average of about 240mm in the 1980s to approximately 250mm for recent winters. It takes at least 10 years of data to begin to see a reliable trend. The average rainfall for this current winter already makes it the fourth wettest since 1984 and with more rain forecast it will soon rise up the league table to third. Looking at the records it is very evident that most of the wettest winters have been over the past say 15 years, with the exception of 1989/1990. The detailed data can be seen using a tab at the top this website.