Saturday 3rd October
Friday gave us a sunny morning but variable cloud arrived after around midday that limited any further rise in temperature following the high of 20.3C at 12.48, which was 5.4C above average. The past night was also mild with a minimum of 11.4C, logged at 07.28 early Saturday being 3.9C above average.
Saturday arrived with total cloud cover, the result of a weak weather front crossing the area during the morning. The radar chart at 07.00 indicated small clumps of thicker cloud, with minimal precipitation, forming over South Wales and the Bristol Channel heading eastwards. There is the possibility of some light drizzle during the morning but minimal, if at all. Hopefully, as the cloud from the back edge of the front eases away, it will thin and allow some sunshine to break through this afternoon.
The elongated area of high pressure that currently covers much of southern England will be in charge until later on Tuesday, which will mean mainly dry and warm days ahead with variable sunshine and temperatures several degrees above the October average. By Wednesday, the forecast pressure charts indicate a new area of high pressure will have been developing in Mid-Atlantic and edging closer. The air stream, circulating clockwise around the anticyclone, will arrive from a northerly direction bringing much cooler weather. The maximum temperatures from Wednesday onwards will drop several degrees compared to the past week and be closer to or just below average.
Deep Dive: How a Pacific hurricane could influence the UK’s weather
Author: Met Office
The remnants of a hurricane thousands of miles away may help shape the UK’s weather this weekend.
The connection involves tropical thunderstorms, changes in the jet stream and a weather front whose development remains unusually uncertain.
Before looking ahead, it is worth reflecting on the exceptional warmth experienced across the UK at the end of September. Temperatures reached 28.1°C at Kew Gardens on Tuesday, placing conditions towards the upper end of what would normally be expected at this point in the year. Although not record-breaking, the warmth was notable both by day and overnight, with minimum temperatures of 18°C or 19°C possible in places.
The warmth is being drawn northwards ahead of a large area of low pressure to the west of Ireland. This low is pushing the jet stream to the south while bringing unusually warm air across the UK. Cloud, rain and strong winds are preventing the air mass from reaching its full temperature potential, but conditions are still well above average across much of England and Wales.