Author: Eric Gilbert

Sunday 24th August
The temperature rose steadily on Saturday until just after 11.00 when it reached 19.9C and began to plateau followed by a slower rise, reaching a high of 22.7C at 16.14, which was only just above the August average at +0.6C. The average temperature and the UV level at its peak reached up to the ‘Moderate’ level due to the variable cloud cover and the breeze from the cool northeasterly direction. However, there was little air movement, at times the anemometer was becalmed, with a maximum air movement of 11mph on one occasion. The cloud cover overnight gave us a mild night, in fact the warmest since last Monday, with a minimum of 15.3C logged at 06.22 early Sunday, just after the sunrise in Marlborough at 06.06.

The first hour or so after sunrise on Sunday was dominated by 7/8ths cloud cover but around 07.45 the sun began to break through that had lifted the temperature to 16.2C by 08.00.

The high pressure is still dominant although very slowly beginning to fill with a reading of 1020.9mb at 08.00. The track of ex-hurricane Erin is still forecast to bring it in the North Atlantic between Scotland and Iceland. Before that we have two fine, warm or very warm day ahead. On Tuesday a cold weather front ahead of the depression is likely to bring more cloud and possible precipitation, amounts unclear at the moment. It is by Wednesday when the stronger winds and more unsettled weather reaches our area with likely rain showers.

With a little summer still left I am starting a new series of images, this time from the colourful island of Madeira, mainly from the town and countryside around Funchal.

Saturday 23rd August
The temperature recovered quickly on Friday morning, after the very cool start, until just after 11.00 when there was a more gradual increase in temperature that reached a maximum of 23.6C at 16.07 being 1.5C above average that made it the warmest day since last Sunday. This rise in temperature was partly due to the wind backing away from the cool northeast to north and then west-northwest combined with the anticyclone being almost overhead that meant calm conditions, the strongest movement of air, couldn’t be called a gust, was 9mph. The past night was less cold than the previous very cool night, however, a minimum of 8.5C logged on Saturday at 06.32, just after sunrise in Marlborough at 06.05, was below average at -2.7C.

The new day on Saturday revealed that the cloud was almost continuous, but thin, allowing weak sunshine to filter through, that had lifted the temperature to 11.1C by 08.00. Later this afternoon the air stream will veer into an easterly quadrant and then this evening a southerly quadrant. All day the breeze will be very light between periods of calm.

The anticyclone this morning is almost overhead southern England so another calm day ahead with only light breezes. There is the possibility of more cloud drifting down from the north that would limit severely the sunshine today.

The remains of ex-hurricane Erin is currently just off the coast of Newfoundland and slowly heading our way carried along on the jet stream. The current projection indicates that by Tuesday it will be positioned between Scotland and Iceland. If that is correct we will be on the periphery of the intense centre of the low-pressure with modest rain, windy conditions and below average maxima.

New research from the Met Office reveals that we spend on average 56.6 hours, or two days and 9 hours, talking about the weather over the course of a year.

Friday 22nd August.
After a very cool day on Wednesday, Thursday was a little warmer with a maximum of 20.4C, logged at 16.37, thanks to the late afternoon sunshine, however this was still below average at -1.7C.

An area of clear sky over southern England meant much warmth dissipated into the atmosphere overnight that saw the thermometer drop very low with a minimum of 4.5C logged at 06.09 early Friday. This low was a significant 6.7C below my long-term average, which made it the coldest night since 22nd May, not helped by the airstream from the north initially, a cool direction.

Although sunrise in Marlborough was at 06.03 an arm of cloud extended to the east of Marlborough that denied any sunshine, although a little brightness was observed. As a result the thermometer only rose to 7.1C by 08.00 making it the coolest start to a new day at that time since 6th May. The radar showed a large bank of cloud to the north of our area that was steadily moving south so that by 07.15 broken cloud had arrived with no likelihood of sunshine to boost the temperature until later in the morning.

The area of high pressure has narrowed or elongated, extending further south, as a result this relocation will see the breeze come from the west-northwest today, a less cool direction and thankfully be much lighter. The centre of the anticyclone is just to the west of the country that has seen the barometric pressure rise to 1023.0mb at 08.00, the highest for five days that will mean a dry day ahead and likely for the weekend.

The forecast charts show the remains of ex-hurricane Erin heading towards the north of the UK by Monday with a very deep centre of pressure, forecast to be as low as 965mb, which will result in stormy conditions over Scotland and very breezy further south, however, amounts of precipitation for my very dry garden are uncertain.

Another interesting comment from the Met Office on recent dramatic weather headlines. “UK weather: Exactly when Britain will be hotter than Ibiza with major 31C heat blast forecast,” claims another headline. The Met Office comment “The forecast suggests a mobile Atlantic pattern with intermittent rain and showers. While temperatures may rise above average briefly, the overall outlook remains near average. The reduced likelihood of heatwaves means that while some areas may experience warmth, it’s unlikely to rival Mediterranean conditions across the board.” Interesting contrast!

Thursday 21st August.

Note: Unfortunately, my weather station was knocked off line at 06.29 on Wednesday, for some unknown reason, the live stream on the website was locked all day from that time. I was out most of the day and did not manage to get it back online until the evening as the support in the UK was unobtainable. Overnight support came from Davies Instruments in America. My older station close by, exactly the same without the UV sensor or via the ‘cloud’ and live weblink, maintained my long term data stream, thankfully.

Wednesday was a disappointing day that was certainly not summer like with cloud that persisted until late afternoon. The extent of the cloud was not forecast by either the Met Office or the BBC forecast from the Meteo group. The cloud cover, combined with the persistent northeasterly breeze gusting to 19mph, meant it was a cool day, a very cool day for August, that limited the rise in temperature to a maximum of 18.3C at 18.00 thanks to a brief burst of sunshine late in the afternoon being a significant 3.8C below average. The overnight minimum of 10.9C, logged just after midnight, which was unusual so early in the new day at 01.58, was 0.3C below average.

Thursday first thing again revealed total cloud cover although it appears less dense than on Wednesday, confirmed by a higher solar value at 08.30 at the time of writing this report. Thankfully, the northeasterly breeze, again today, will be less strong that should mean a warmer day.

The forecast charts see little change over the next couple of days, with predominantly cloudy conditions that will limit the sunshine, although temperatures by day should recover closer to the late August average due to a subtle change in the position of the anticyclone with the wind coming form the north-northeast today and backing into the northwest then southwest on Friday, a much warmer direction.

I have read reports in the press over several revert days of “Horror weather maps show when 600-mile rainstorm will batter the UK” was one headline. The Met Office comment the “Whilst the language is eye-catching, the forecast paints a more nuanced picture. Low pressure is expected to donate early in the period next week, bringing spells of rain and showers, with the potential for windy conditions. However, confidence in deeper low-pressure systems near the UK is currently low. Drier and brighter spells are also likely, and temperatures may be above average at times, though broadly near-average overall”. I remember a recent comment that the Met Office use a combination of data and computer runs to make a balanced forecast rather than a statement from just one run.

Wednesday 20th August.
Unfortunately all contact with my station ceased at 06.29. I hope this will be corrected soon.

Update: At last a factory reset has got the station online at about 19.30 and the live update is now functioning and correct. Sadly I have, at the moment, not been able to retrieve data for the intervening 13 hours. Could have been worse!

Although there was variable cloud on Tuesday morning the sun did eventually manage to raise the temperature above average just before 14.00 with a maximum of 23.3C at 15.19 before thicker cloud arrived. This maximum temperature was just 1.2C above average. A minor trough over southwest England produced the cloudier conditions and rainfall over the West Country during the morning and areas of thicker cloud that drifted across Hampshire in the afternoon. The wind was brisk with a peak gust of 19mph that coming from the northeast took the edge off the warmth. A minimum of 13.2C was logged at 06.29 early Wednesday that had only risen to 13.4C by 08.00 thanks to the thick cloud cover that once again had drifted in from the North Sea overnight.

Wednesday revealed another cloudy start to the day with total cloud cover although a brief break just before 08.00 allowed a couple of minutes of weak sunshine. There is hope that the cloud will thin and break up as the morning progresses that should then bring us more sunshine this afternoon.

The anticyclone has moved very little over the past twenty-four hours with the pressure at 08.00 reading 1017.0mb, exactly the same as on Tuesday at that time. The pattern of the air stream will see the northeasterly continue as the air originating near Iceland travels down its eastern boundary before changing into the northeasterly around its southern periphery. The situation is as yesterday with the modest ridge of high pressure keeping the depression to the west and disturbed area over France at bay. There is no evidence at the moment of any relief for gardeners in the form of rain, even light rain, likely in the next few days.