Windrush Weather

Author: Eric Gilbert

  • High pressure in command for two days

    High pressure in command for two days

    Saturday 5th September
    Friday was a damp and dismal day under perpetual cloud cover that limited the rise in temperature to a maximum of 18.6C mid-afternoon, being just 0.4C below average. Clearer skies overnight resulted in a minimum of 10.1C at 05.11, which was 0.6C above average.

    Saturday arrived with weak sunshine as it struggled to break through, and then above, cloud on the eastern horizon, which limited the rise in temperature to 12.8C by 08.00, by which time the sun was shining strongly.The barometric pressure is now high, and still rising slowly, with a reading at 08.00 of 1023.4mb, the highest for a couple of weeks.

    Today we will be predominantly under the control of the anticyclone that currently is centred just off the coast of Brittany, which will give us a fine day with average temperatures. As the centre of the high pressure edges away to the east, the breeze, which will be light, will later today back into the southwest and by early tomorrow morning come from the southeast. The air flow from this direction will have originated from the near Continent and will therefore waft much warmer air across the country on Sunday that is likely not only to be a fine day but a very warm day.

    The start of next week will see the influence of the anticyclone wane as we come under the control of an Atlantic depression approaching the UK with more unsettled weather, sunshine and showers, from several weather fronts.

    The image was taken from St Peter’s Church tower looking across the buildings of Marlborough College with the college chapel central in the background.

  • Moist Atlantic air today before fine day tomorrow

    Moist Atlantic air today before fine day tomorrow

    Friday 4th August
    Thursday was a fine day with no precipitation and very warm conditions under the brisk southwesterly breeze that did not contain any weather fronts. The thermometer rose well above average with a maximum of 25.4C at 14.49 being a significant 6.4C above my long-term average. The overcast sky during the past night, from the cloud associated with the depression to the northwest, meant a very warm night as the thermometer hovered around 19C for much of the night only dropping as the drizzle and rain arrived at 06.10, that by 08.00 amounted to 1.6mm.

    Friday arrived gloomy with a low cloud base and drizzle falling. At 07.30 a very narrow band of heavier rain arrived that briefly produced very strong winds with a maximum gust of 24mph. The precipitation continued until 08.00 when it fizzled put. The precipitation was from a couple of weather fronts crossing the country, both cold fronts, that will result in the breeze veering into the west for a couple of days and maximum temperatures dropping back to around the average for September.

    By Sunday the centre of the high pressure will have relocated eastwards, that will result in the wind backing into the southeast and wafting in very warm air from the near Continent giving us a very warm and dry day.

    A new series of images start today, which were taken from the top of St Peter’s Church, looking east along the very wide Marlborough High Street.

    Who decides when a storm should be named?

    In Europe, there are five storm naming groups created from the meteorological agencies based in a similar geographic location.

    The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands form the western storm-naming group.

    In the UK, storms are named when they are likely to cause disruption or damage that could lead to an amber or red warning.

    Mostly this is because of strong winds but it could also be snow or heavy rainfall.

    This decision is based on both the potential impact of the weather and how likely it is to happen.

    However, it is worth noting that storms named by Met Éireann or KNMI due to forecast impacts in either Ireland or the Netherlands may not necessarily cause disruption here in the UK.

  • Warm and humid for a few days

    Warm and humid for a few days

    Thursday 3rd August
    Wednesday was dominated by three weather fronts that crossed the country hence the persistence of cloudy conditions and occasional showers of drizzle and light rain throughout the day that amounted to 2.4mm. The lack of sunshine meant that the maximum temperature of 18.3C was just below average at -0.4C, that made it the coolest day since 12th June. It has been a very mild night due to the continuing flow of mild, moist air from the Atlantic and thick cloud cover that minimised any loss of warmth into the atmosphere – in fact it was minimal.

    The diurnal range of temperatures was exceptionally low over the past twenty-four hours with a difference of just 1.0C between the high and the low.

    Thursday arrived with the sky still covered with cloud and no sign of the sun, but a mild start with the thermometer reading 18.1C at 08.00, which made to the warmest start to a new day since 18th August, which was at the end of the last heatwave.

    Our weather for the next few days will be a continuation of the flow of westerlies that will bring more moist and mild air, with minimal rainfall. The recent high pressure to the south is hanging on and trying to counter weather fronts arriving from the depression now centred to the northwest. As we approach Saturday the forecast pressure charts indicate that another ridge of high pressure will push back across the country from the southwest and extend over the Continent with the result that temperatures will rise as the weekend proceeds with Sunday looking to be very warm.

    Below are more details on the naming of future storms for the coming season, including why the letters U, X, Y and Z are missing from the list.

    This year’s list continues to draw on various suggestions, reflecting not only popular choices, but also some of the personal stories behind them.

    For example Austen was suggested in honour of Austen Nagle, the first director of the Irish Meteorological Service.

    Chloe was selected by the Met Office after being nominated more than 130 times, including once by the mother of a five-year-old who is described by her mum as “fascinated by the weather” but can also “create a storm by herself” when she is tired.

    And Ivy was nominated in honour of a nine-month-old Labrador puppy affectionately known as “the absolute destructor”
    Any remnant of a tropical storm or hurricane that crosses the Atlantic will keep its original name, for example ex-Hurricane Erin, which brought a large swell to South West England in August 2025 and was named ‘Storm Erin’.

    To ensure consistency with the US National Hurricane Centre naming conventions, names that begin with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z are not used.

  • Atlantic air flow for a few days

    Atlantic air flow for a few days

    Wednesday 2nd September
    The first day of meteorological autumn was very pleasant, dry and warm that lifted the maximum temperature to a high of 21.4C, which was 2.4C above average. The past night was mild under the flow of moist, warm air off the Atlantic under cloudy conditions that saw the thermometer not drop below 14.2C at 06.24, being 4.7C above my September average.

    There was the glimmer of very weak sunshine on Wednesday morning after the sun rose through small gaps in the thin cloud, but it was soon obliterated as thick cloud continued to drift across on the southwesterly breeze. The radar showed a rash of broken shower activity heading our way and the first spots of rain were seen and felt by me at 08.00 as I picked some flowers.

    Although the barometric pressure is still relatively high, with its centre to the east, the cloud from the depression to the northwest will dominate our weather today pushing a weather front across the country with a possible light shower or drizzle late morning, from variable cloud.

    The rest of the week appears to be alternate days of dry, fine weather interspersed with cloudy days with the temperatures by day and night several degrees above the September average thanks to the flow of moist, warm, air brought on a southwesterly breeze coming in from the Atlantic, gusty at times, as various weather fronts cross the country.

    New storm names for 2026-2027 released by Met Office

    The first of September marked the start of meteorological autumn, and with it the start of the UK’s storm season.

    In preparation for potential stormy spells, the Met Office has released a new list of names for the 2026-2027 season which have been chosen by members of the public.

    Storms are named by the UK Met Office, Ireland’s Met Éireann or the Netherlands’ KNMI when they are forecast to cause “medium” or “high” impacts.

    The names in alphabetical order are:

    Austen, Boelo, Chloe, Dano, Evelyn, Finn, Gwendolyn, Heather, Ivy, Jade, Kilian, Laoise, Miriam, Nicola, Olaf, Phelim, Ruban, Shaun, Theo, Vesna, Wennde

    N.B. I have checked the spelling as published in the Met Office release!

    Why are storms named?

    In the UK, storms are named when they are likely to cause disruption or damage that could lead to an amber or red warning being issued.

    This decision is based on both the potential impact of the weather and how likely it is to occur.

    Names are typically given to storms where impacts from strong winds are expected, although other weather-related effects are also taken into account such as heavy rainfall or snow which may lead to flooding or travel disruption.

    Using one official system to name storms helps to share clear and consistent information about severe weather, making it easier for the public to stay safe.

    The 2026-2027 marks the eleventh year of storm naming in the UK.

    How are storm names chosen?

    Storm names are selected jointly by the Met Office, Met Éireann and KNMI, with the final list aiming to reflect communities across the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands.

    In 2025 the three meteorology agencies invited nominations for names from the public.

    More than 40,000 were submitted – we saw names such as Amy, Isla and Marty selected for the 2025/2026 storm season.

  • Start of meteorological Autumn

    Start of meteorological Autumn

    Tuesday 1st September
    The last day of August was dry and fine with the thermometer reaching just above the average with a maximum of 22.3C at 14.30 before cloud increased, being 0.7C above my August average. The last night was cool that saw the thermometer fall away to a minimum of 7.7C at 05.18, which was an hour before sunrise in Marlborough at 06.19, being 4.1C below my long-term average.

    Tuesday revealed much cloud that limited the sunshine after dawn, which meant the thermometer had only risen to 9.9C by 08.00.

    The modest high pressure to the south will give us a fine day today and tend to hold off weather fronts pushing down from the north, associated with the depression near Scotland, for much of the week.

    August 2026 review
    The month began, where July finished, with the continuation of high temperatures. By the 2nd the peak temperature had risen back above the heatwave threshold for Wiltshire of 27C, and continued for three days, the fifth official heatwave this year in Marlborough.

    Thankfully, from the 5th, peak temperatures dropped due to the breeze backing into the west arriving from a cooler Atlantic rather than the hot Continent. The 7th gave us the coolest night of the month, since the 14th June, with a minimum of 5.7C, under clear skies and calm conditions, also the coolest night since 16th May, the latter being a significant 6.1C below average.

    The sixth brief heatwave for 2026 began on the 11th and was even more intense that saw temperatures rise well above 30C with a high of 35.9C on the 13th.

    The significant change in our weather pattern arrived on the 17th. The high pressure had receded westwards allowing a depression to the northwest to edge closer. Its associated cloud meant less strong sunshine and weather fronts beginning to cross the country.

    There were numerous showers drifting across the country on Thursday the 20th but as usual, they were averse to dropping any significant precipitation on Marlborough. There were a couple of times when for a minute a few drops dampened the ground mid-afternoon and early evening that amounted to 0.6mm. However, as soon as the sun reappeared the ground dried up rapidly.

    On Friday the 21st at first light, there revealed that a bank of fog had formed in the early hours due to the recent moisture in the air condensing as the temperature dropped, that included thicker radiation fog in the River Og valley. By 06.15 the visibility across the River Og valley was restricted to about 400m whilst less dense towards Savernake Forest. By 06.30 the sun had begun to creep above the fog bank and visibility slowly improved.

    From time to time over the last week or two of August I had seen headlines that suggested there could be another heatwave in September. I had seen nothing in the meteorological data that at that time indicated that temperatures might rise very high again. However, as a matter of interest I analysed my statistics when the heatwave threshold of 27C for Wiltshire had been equalled or exceeded over the past fifteen years. Taking three five-year spans, I found that from 2012-2015 there were 15 days, during the period 2016-2020 the heatwave conditions totalled 57 days and from 2021-2025 there were 76 heatwave days. A distinct upward trend in the occurrence of heatwave days was obvious. The year with the highest number of heatwave days was 2028 with 25, followed by 2025 with 21. So, how many this year so far – 38!

    During the night of the 26th/27th a large area of thundery activity developed over Northen France and Brittany and headed across the Chanel towards the UK, arriving in the early hours. Thunder was heard at 05.25 and the rain gauge triggered from 05.18 to 06.00, producing a total of 5.0mm. I have often noticed, under shower conditions, not wide rain bands, that the approaching rain area thins and fragments as it approaches central England, this was the situation overnight as much heavier and persistent rain was observed on the radar to the west and east of Marlborough.

    That night was very warm and humid with a minimum of 17.7C that made it the warmest night of the month and the rainfall, not surprisingly after such a dry period, produced very humid conditions with a reading of 94.2% at 08.00.

    Headlines in the press this past month have highlighted the extreme temperature for the UK of 30C, and its frequency this year and over recent years. Once again, I have analysed my data over three five-year periods to examine the local situation. Between 2011 and 2015 there were just five days when 30C was reached or exceeded, from 2016-2020 there were 19 days and from 2021-2025 a total of 28 days, a clear rising trend over that period of 15 years. This year so far there have been 19 days when 30C was reached or exceeded. The peak this month was 35.9C on the 13th being a significant 14.3C above my long-term August average.

    A couple of low-pressure systems decided to visit us over the Bank Holiday weekend. Although their arrival was not welcomed by holidaymakers, they were well received by gardeners as 18.4mm of precipitation was recorded during many hours of light rain, drizzle and occasional heavier bursts on the 29th that began to rejuvenate parched gardens. This was the wettest day since 1st June when 28.0mm was recorded.

    The average temperature for August was 2.5C above my long-term average mainly due to the very hot days. An analysis indicates that the maximum was 4.2C above average whilst the minimum was 0.8C above average. It was 0.1C above the average for the very hot August of 2022 that also had heatwaves.

    The total rainfall was 43.0mm, being 59% of my 43-year average. The rainfall for the eight months January to August was 460mm, compared to my 43-year record of 516mm for that period. Although it has been a very dry summer the months of January and February were well above average.

    Summer 2026

    The total rainfall for our very hot summer was 97mm compared to my 43-year record of 177mm, principally due to the very wet 1st June and the significant fall on the 29th August.

    The average temperature was 3.2C above my long-term record.