Tuesday 4th August
The strength of the sun on Monday was intense and relentless that resulted in the temperature peaking at 31.7C. It was the hottest day since 10th July. This high, logged at 17.06, was a significant 10.1C above my long-term August average and well above the heatwave threshold of 27C. The heat only slowly and partially dissipated overnight with a minimum of 16.6C at 04.58.The low was 4.8C above average and made it the warmest night since 28th July.
Tuesday arrived with a very different start to the new day. We are now in a southwesterly flow of air from th Atlantic, which is cooler and more humid. The next few days will bring relief as peak temperatures will be around or only just above the August average. The rest of this week we will see variable cloud cover with sunny periods but no wall to wall, relentless sunshine, however, although a weather front will cross the UK today there is little indication at the moment that we will see any precipitation today or this week.
As the recent depression leaves our shores over the next two days, heading towards Scandinavia, the Azores high is forecast to push back across the country that will see temperatures ease upwards again towards the weekend with the return of quiet, dry days, if very warm.
Perusing the forecast jet stream charts there is an indication that the track next week begins to loop north of the UK allowing hot air once again to flood the country, but not as severe as past weeks.
In its extended UK outlook, the Met Office has indicated that additional heatwaves remain a possibility. For the period spanning August 8 to August 17, the forecast suggests conditions will start off “rather changeable”, bringing some rainfall but “also the likelihood of some decent drier interludes too, especially in the south”.
Approaching mid-month, “high pressure may become rather more dominant towards the north or northwest of the UK, with lower pressure at times further to the south or east”. This raises the prospect of frontal systems or thundery spells impacting southern and eastern regions, particularly when compared to recent weeks, though rainfall totals could vary considerably, with certain areas receiving relatively little.
“For the most part, temperatures look to remain above average, especially in the south, though perhaps without the exceptional heat we have seen in recent weeks.”
Examining the longer-term outlook, forecasts from August 18 to September 1 suggest the high pressure will persist initially, albeit with periodic more unsettled intervals. “This means that rainfall amounts overall are more likely to be below normal than above.
“Temperatures will probably be above average and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south”.