Windrush Weather

Category: Commentary

  • Window of fine weather for next two days

    Window of fine weather for next two days

    Friday 5th August
    The thick black clouds, from the back edge of the weather front, rolled away just before 08.00 on Thursday that left an interval of blue sky before brief showers arrived just after 09.00 that amounted to 1.0mm. Thereafter the day was dry with the thermometer edging upwards to reach a maximum of 19.1C at 14.45 in warm sunshine, being 0.1C above average. Although the peak UV level is now at a ‘Moderate’ level the peak solar of 909W/m2 was the second highest this month.

    The temperature dropped steadily away overnight that gave a minimum of 9.3C at 04.24 being just above average at +0.6C. The recent wet weather, resulting in high humidity, combined with the lowest minimum temperature this month, produced radiation fog in the River Og valley, observed just after sunrise, that had all but evaporated by 07.00 as the sun rose higher and began to lift the temperature, which had reached 13.4C by 08.00.

    Friday gave us a bright start with sunshine that has the promise of a dry, fine day ahead.

    As the depression eased away northwards on Thursday, an anticyclone centred over the Azores had been steadily building over the UK with a significant rise of 17mb during the past twenty-four hours and continues to rise steadily. This high pressure will give us a couple of warm, dry days ahead. As it eases away eastwards over the Continent on Saturday this will allow the airstream to travel around its southern flank, over the warm Continent, before arriving with a steady flow of very warm air on a southeasterly flow that will result in the thermometer rising well above average. It will also keep at bay for a day a deep depression closing in the UK from the eastern Atlantic that will bring more cloud on Sunday but probably stay dry.

    A recent Met Office press release stated that ” Machine Learning-based weather models have the potential to revolutionise global seasonal forecasting, according to new Met Office-led research. According to new research, the ML model, known aa ACE2, demonstrates comparable (though lower) performance to existing methods, with significantly less computing power required. They go on to state that “We’ve found that ACE2 shows skills comparable to existing physics-based methods, which could open up new opportunities on generating more detailed and accurate forecast at a seasonal range.”

  • We wanted rain as gardeners, now it won’t stop!

    We wanted rain as gardeners, now it won’t stop!

    Thursday 4th September
    The high of 19.1C on Wednesday mid-morning, rather than late afternoon, indicates that we had little sunshine to boost the temperature thanks to the predominantly cloudy skies. The first precipitation came just after 11.00 with heavy showers noted at 12.45, 13.15 and then later at 14.35 when the rate of rainfall was equal to 155.7mm per hour. It was the wettest day since 24th November when 36.6mm was recorded. The total rainfall for the past twenty-four hours amounted to 20.6mm. As on previous nights the cloud cover meant another mild night with the minimum of 12.1C logged at 04.38 being 3.4C above average.

    The depression just off the southwest coast of Cornwall began to move northwards overnight of Wednesday into Thursday and threw an extensive arc of cloud over the UK driving a wide band a rain within it. I would estimate from the back track of radar that the cloud built up from around 04.00, which would tie in with the minimum temperature at 04.38. This arc produced heavy rain starting just before 06.00 that was heavy for a period. Behind the main weather front are a rash of heavy showers that are likely to ease and clear around midday.

    The jet stream will arc above the UK briefly on Friday and Saturday that will allow a temporary ridge of high pressure to form over the UK with a couple of fine days ahead before it turns south of the UK again from Monday with more unsettled weather to follow.

    We look west over the Atlantic for disturbed weather driven along by the jet stream. The hurricane website currently shows an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic just to the west of the Cape Verde Island where these disturbances begin to form. At the moment a watch is being kept on this development as it is forecast to have an 80% chance of forming a cyclone that could eventually be whisked across to the UK in a week or so, having travelled in an arc to the north of the Caribbean before heading northeastwards.

  • Wet and windy again today and tomorrow! Very low diurnal range of temperatures

    Wet and windy again today and tomorrow! Very low diurnal range of temperatures

    The past twenty-four hours have been dominated by the disturbed weather associated with low pressure systems arriving from the Atlantic bringing their weather fronts with them. The rain on Tuesday eventually petered out in the afternoon but left occasional showers. The persistent cloud meant a cool day with the thermometer not climbing above 18.9C at 14.34, during the brief bright interludes in the afternoon, being almost exactly average for early September at -0.1C. There was intermittent light rain in the early hours of Wednesday and heavier arriving just before 06.00 that in total amounted to 13.7mm, which took the monthly total to 21.9mm in two days.

    The past night was very mild under the cloud cover, not dropping below 14.2C logged in the very early hours of Wednesday at 01.51 being a significant 5.5C above my long-term average. This variation between the day and night temperatures is referred to as the diurnal range and on this occasion produced a difference of only 4.7C. Last month there were many days when the diurnal range was in excess of 10C.

    The start to Wednesday revealed 8/8ths cloud cover with the clouds scudding across the sky under a brisk southwesterly wind having veered from the southeast on Tuesday. The two low pressure systems dominating our weather will combine and continue the unsettled weather, with rain and brisk breezes as the day progresses, whilst the depressions join and become centred over the Scottish Borders.

    There are multiple weather fronts crossing our region today with a line of heavy showers approaching Cornwall at 09.00 and likely heading our way later in the morning.

    Another media headline has splashed that some weather charts indicate the mercury could climb back up to 30C this month, with temperatures set to rise across southern England from Monday, 8th September. However, the Met Office has cautioned Brits against dusting off their suncream and beach gear just yet, suggesting that this month’s forecast is more likely to feature moderate conditions, falling short of heatwave levels.

    The selection of autumnal images from Stourhead continue.

    August 2025 Review

    The new month continued with the modest strength north-westerly, travelling around northern periphery of the ridge of high pressure with variable cloud. The 3rd brought a very warm day as the wind had backed into the west with a maximum of 24.4C.

    In winter we often hear about wind chill when the temperature is low and there is a strong wind blowing that makes it feel colder outside than indicated on the thermometer, referred to as the THW factor using data of temperature, humidity and wind strength. The opposite has occurred over the past few months when we have had very high temperatures, referred to as the Heat Index (THSW) that uses the additional data of solar strength that makes it feel hotter outside than indicated on a thermometer.

    Taking the data from the 2nd as an example, although the maximum on the thermometer read 22.3C at its peak at 14.30 outside it was computed to feel more like 28.3C. That was one hour after 13.30, peak time under BST, when the solar read 849W/m2.

    The 4th was notable for the arrival of the fifth Named Storm of the season being Storm Floris that paid a one-day visit, predominantly to Scotland. However, being on the periphery we only experienced gusty winds up 26 mph and modest rainfall in the afternoon of 1.4mm. The centre pf the deep depression had a minimum pressure of 976mb whilst at 08.00 locally it was 10167mb. The considerable pressure differential cased the storm force winds in the north but no gales over Southern England, just very windy.

    Temperatures began to climb again from the 10th under a large area of high pressure that heralded the arrival of the fourth Heatwave this year. The peak temperature was logged on the 12th when the thermometer reached 32.8C being 10.7C above my long-term average.

    There followed a quieter period in the third week with maxima below average due to a brisk breeze coming around the north of the high pressure then arriving from the northeast.

    The Bank Holiday once again saw the temperature very briefly soar again to reach 27.5C, some 5.4C above average.

    A significant change in the weather pattern was heralded on the 26th as the remains of ex-hurricane Erin was absorbed into a deep depression in the North Atlantic. This resulted in the wind veering into the southwest with an Atlantic influence on our weather and the first precipitation after fourteen consecutive dry days. The rain spots at 06.30 followed by very brief, light drizzle amounted to 0.2mm.

    The cooler and more moist air also meant a drop in temperatures that for the last few days in the month were below the average.

    There was substantial and welcome rainfall on the 28th that began to quench the thirst of parched ground, much to the relief of gardeners. It was mainly intermittent rain with the longest period in the evening that eventually totalled 16.8mm being the wettest day since 23rd February.

    There were 25 dry days in August equalling those recorded in April. The remaining days, when rain did fall, produced a total of 31.1mm, which was 47% of my 41-year record or minus 34.4mm. The wettest day was on the 28th with 16.8mm. Set against this limited rainfall was the loss of equivalent rainfall through evaporation from ground sources and plant life that totalled 94.0mm.

    It was another very warm month with the average temperature 2.1C above almost entirely due to the very hot days as there were fourteen days when the overnight minimum was below average. The hottest day (12th) reached 32.8C when the coolest day (20th) only reached 18.3C, which was 3.9C below average.

    The warmest night was recorded on the 13th with a minimum of 16.4C whilst a very cool night was logged in the early hours of the 22nd with a low of just 4.5C, being a significant 6.5C below my long-term average.

    Summer 2025.
    The three metrological months of Summer, being June, July and August, produced a mean temperature of 18.29C, being 1.8C above my long-term average.

    The rainfall for summer totalled 116.2mm, which was 67mm below my 41-year average.

  • A few wet and windy days ahead

    A few wet and windy days ahead

    Once again the maximum temperature on Monday was recorded around midday after the early morning sun got to work before cloud cover built up. A peak of 20.4C was logged at 12.44 being just above the early September average at +1.4C. There were two very heavy showers in the afternoon, the first beginning at 13.30 the second just after 14.15 that produced a total of 8.2mm, being intense for a very short period. The past night was also mild with a low of 10.0C logged at 06.04 being 1.3C above average.

    Tuesday began with very weak sunshine shining through very thin cloud on the eastern horizon that soon became obscured as thicker cloud began to drift over well before 08.00. The wind fell out just after 04.00 and the anemometer was stationary until just before 08.30 when there was a hint of movement. Shower activity is imminent after around 08.30. As the depression has been relocating it has changed the wind direction from southwest recently, to southeast today, before beginning to veer back into the southwest later today.

    The secondary low pressure that I mentioned yesterday has moved eastwards and by midday is forecast to be over the Dorset region. Associated with it is another weather front that on the radar showed pushing along a large area of scattered heavy shower activity. This depression will, by tomorrow, edge northwards over the country, however, developing on its southern flank will be a very disturbed area of heavy rain and very strong winds likely arriving before dawn on Wednesday.

    August 2025 Review

    The new month continued with the modest strength north-westerly, travelling around northern periphery of the ridge of high pressure with variable cloud. The 3rd brought a very warm day as the wind had backed into the west with a maximum of 24.4C.

    In winter we often hear about wind chill when the temperature is low and there is a strong wind blowing that makes it feel colder outside than indicated on the thermometer, referred to as the THW factor using data of temperature, humidity and wind strength. The opposite has occurred over the past few months when we have had very high temperatures, referred to as the Heat Index (THSW) that uses the additional data of solar strength that makes it feel hotter outside than indicated on a thermometer.

    Taking the data from the 2nd as an example, although the maximum on the thermometer read 22.3C at its peak at 14.30 outside it was computed to feel more like 28.3C. That was one hour after 13.30, peak time under BST, when the solar read 849W/m2.

    The 4th was notable for the arrival of the fifth Named Storm of the season being Storm Floris that paid a one-day visit, predominantly to Scotland. However, being on the periphery we only experienced gusty winds up 26 mph and modest rainfall in the afternoon of 1.4mm. The centre pf the deep depression had a minimum pressure of 976mb whilst at 08.00 locally it was 10167mb. The considerable pressure differential cased the storm force winds in the north but no gales over Southern England, just very windy.

    Temperatures began to climb again from the 10th under a large area of high pressure that heralded the arrival of the fourth Heatwave this year. The peak temperature was logged on the 12th when the thermometer reached 32.8C being 10.7C above my long-term average.

    There followed a quieter period in the third week with maxima below average due to a brisk breeze coming around the north of the high pressure then arriving from the northeast.

    The Bank Holiday once again saw the temperature very briefly soar again to reach 27.5C, some 5.4C above average.

    A significant change in the weather pattern was heralded on the 26th as the remains of ex-hurricane Erin was absorbed into a deep depression in the North Atlantic. This resulted in the wind veering into the southwest with an Atlantic influence on our weather and the first precipitation after fourteen consecutive dry days. The rain spots at 06.30 followed by very brief, light drizzle amounted to 0.2mm.

    The cooler and more moist air also meant a drop in temperatures that for the last few days in the month were below the average.

    There was substantial and welcome rainfall on the 28th that began to quench the thirst of parched ground, much to the relief of gardeners. It was mainly intermittent rain with the longest period in the evening that eventually totalled 16.8mm being the wettest day since 23rd February.

    There were 25 dry days in August equalling those recorded in April. The remaining days, when rain did fall, produced a total of 31.1mm, which was 47% of my 41-year record or minus 34.4mm. The wettest day was on the 28th with 16.8mm. Set against this limited rainfall was the loss of equivalent rainfall through evaporation from ground sources and plant life that totalled 94.0mm.

    It was another very warm month with the average temperature 2.1C above almost entirely due to the very hot days as there were fourteen days when the overnight minimum was below average. The hottest day (12th) reached 32.8C when the coolest day (20th) only reached 18.3C, which was 3.9C below average.

    The warmest night was recorded on the 13th with a minimum of 16.4C whilst a very cool night was logged in the early hours of the 22nd with a low of just 4.5C, being a significant 6.5C below my long-term average.

    Summer 2025.
    The three metrological months of Summer, being June, July and August, produced a mean temperature of 18.29C, being 1.8C above my long-term average.

    The rainfall for summer totalled 116.2mm, which was 67mm below my 41-year average.

  • First day of Meteorological Autumn

    First day of Meteorological Autumn

    Monday 1st September
    The showers held off all day on Sunday, in fact the bulk of the heavy showers were to the west of Marlborough with lighter ones to the east, driven on by a brisk southwesterly breeze gusting to 27mph locally. However, the clouds did begin to thicken up around midday so it was no surprise to find that the maximum was logged very early in the afternoon at 13.45, with a maximum of 20.5C being 1.6C below my long-term average. Thanks to the cloud cover overnight the temperature only fell to a minimum of 13.5C at 06.22, just after sunrise was due at 06.19 in Marlborough, being 2.3C above average.

    There was no clear sunrise on Monday due to 7/8th cloud cover with weak sunshine breaking through occasionally. The wind is still from the southwest as the low pressure is still parked close to the west of Scotland that will continue the pattern of sunshine with the greater possibility of showers today. In fact heavy showers were approaching the south of our region by 08.15, just north of Salisbury.

    A secondary low-pressure system is forming to the southwest that will move across the country on Tuesday bringing more rain and gusty winds.

    The Met Office released today the new list of storms for 2025, in partnership with Irelands’s Met Eirann and the Dutch service of KNMI. This year more than 50,000 suggestions for storms were submitted to the Met Office from across the UK, Netherlands and Ireland. They state “The final selection includes some of the most popular choices as well as names which have a story behind them. The names are selected to reflect the diversity of each region and assessed for pronunciation, differing meanings across countries, links to public figures, and potential controversy.”

    The Met Office started naming storms in 2015. In the UK, storms are named when they are likely to cause disruption or damage that could lead to an amber or red warning. This decision is based on both the potential impact of the weather and how it is likely to happen. Storms are typically named on the impacts of strong winds. Although other weather-related effects are also taken into account, like heavy rainfall or snow which may lead to flooding or travel disruption.

    As it is the first day of Meteorological Autumn I am starting a new series of autumnal images taken at Stourhead some 10 years ago.

    My review of August will be added tomorrow when I have processed them.