Category: Commentary

After a cloudy start to Monday the sun did come put to play and boosted the temperature to 24.4C at 17.26, which was above my 40-year average, only the fourth abject average this month, at +1.6C. The past night was very mild, thanks again once more to thick cloud cover as another weather front crossed from west to east. This band of cloud brought brief, light rain between 01.00 and 02.00 with a slightly heavier shower just after 03.00, drizzle also fell shortly after 07.30 for a few minutes but the total precipitation was only 0.5mm.

Tuesday revealed another cloudy start to a new day with little evidence that it will lift and thin until probably mid-afternoon. The last three days have seen a moist start to each day with humidity at 08.00 logged at 98%, 98% and 94% respectively.The breeze has veered a few degrees to come from the northwest rather than west as yesterday.

There are three low pressure systems surrounding the UK that currently dominate our weather with two anticyclones tantalisingly close, just to the south over Iberia and the Mediterranean. The barometric pressure has risen to 1016.0mb today, up 6mb over the last two days as a ridge of high pressure seems to be edging closer and is likely to give a much better day on Wednesday – but it won’t last!

A cloudy morning on Sunday was followed by the cloud breaking mid-afternoon and variable sunshine pushing the thermometer to a maximum of 22.1C late in the afternoon at 16.15, which was 0.7C below my 40-year average. During the night thick, low cloud again returned with drizzle arriving just before 06.00, observed on the radar, that ceased just before 08.00, amounting to 0.7mm. This was thanks to a cold front crossing the area.

Monday saw the cloud thinning after 08.00 and lifting but no sunshine. The thermometer had recovered from its minimum of 11.3C at 01.55 to reach 16.5C at 08.00.

The low-pressure system is slowly crossing the north of England into the North Sea so the hang back of cloud will ease during the day with, hopefully, some brightness or sunshine late afternoon. The breeze will increase in strength towards midday, veering from southwest to west.

Three days with above average temperatures then back below again on Saturday with a maximum of 21.1C, which was 1.6C below my 40-year average.The morning was overcast with bright spells but cloud built up during the afternoon with rain observed beginning to fall at 16.55 and sporadic light rain during the evening amounting to 1.1mm. This was due to a cold weather front crossing the area with a second overnight, as a result the wind veered from the south into the northwest by daybreak, but still light. The low of 14.9C, logged at 06.47 early Sunday, was 3C above average thanks to the thick cloud cover acting as a duvet minimising loss of warmth into the atmosphere.

After my comment yesterday on the two widely varying forecasts for Saturday, the Met Office was very accurate with light rain as against the BBC forecast from MeteoGroup that forecast thunderstorms.

Sunday struggled to break into life as the cloud was thick and low masking the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest as the second cold front passed our way. We are back to unsettled weather thanks to the number of low pressure systems heading in from the Atlantic.

The monthly rainfall total of 60.3mm now exceeds my 40-year average, just, by 0.6mm.

The thermometer rose to a maximum of 30.7C at 15.53 on Friday under the very strong sunshine. This peak was 7.8C above my 40-year average and the hottest day since 9th September 2023 (31.0C). Although it was very hot the UV level peaked at 6.7, down from 7.2 on Thursday, but both in the Very High category.

The ground retained a lot of heat overnight so a very warm night followed with the thermometer not sinking below 15.9C that occurred just after midnight at 01.30.

The soil temperature at a depth of 5cm tracks the recent hot weather with 15.8C, 17.7C, 19.2C and 20.2C respectively. Last night at 21.00 it read 24C exactly.

Low cloud and light drizzle arrived just after 05.00 Saturday and only began to clear at 06.30 amounting to 0.2mm. There was a little brightness between 08.00 and 08.20 but the cloud subsequently began to thicken again.

Later on Saturday precipitation is forecast, however, the two main forecasters vary in the amount and the of rainfall. The Met Office suggests that light rain will fall late afternoon whilst the BBC suggests thundery showers could occur. The rain radar at 09.00 showed intense rain falling over Cornwall and heading east.

The thermometer rose steadily on Thursday to reach a peak of 27.7C at 17.02 thanks to almost continuous hours of strong sunshine and a very light breeze from the south that brought the hot air. That made it the hottest day since 9th September (31.0C) and 4.9C above my 40-year average. The UV level of 7.2 was logged at 13.06, and not unexpectedly, in the Very High category. The temperature fell away to reach a low of 11.6C at 05.25 early Friday being 0.3C below the average.

Friday began with variable high cloud to the east that allowed broken sunshine at first but by 07.00 the sun had risen above it and began to shine strongly lifting the thermometer to 18.0C at 08.00.

This will be the last of the hot, dry days as the anticyclone to the east is declining and easing eastwards whilst the depression to the west is beginning to get closer. The barometric pressure has dropped 3mb since its peak on Wednesday.

Update at 11.12: temperature just reached 27.0C
12.42: temperature touched 29.0C but easing back as puffy clouds arrive
15.53: maximum of 30.7C