Category: Commentary

Friday was a quiet, dry day with much sunshine after the misty conditions had cleared lifting the temperature to 15.9C by 14.46 being 1.0C above my 40-year average. A drop of just 4C overnight due to the cloudy conditions gave a minimum of 11.8 at 07.52 on Saturday, which was 4.4C above the average.

There were a few spots of rain in the evening but after midnight a 100 mile rain band arrived dropping 13.8mm of precipitation, being intense at 06.00 on Saturday when rain fell at the rate of 55mm/hour, very briefly, from the back edge of the weather front. This additional rainfall took the monthly total to 95.8mm being 5mm above my 40-year average.

The back edge of the weather front meant a cloudy start to Saturday with almost calm conditions.

The first named storm of the season, Storm Ashley, was named by Met Eireann yesterday. Its greatest impact will be Northern Ireland, Scotland and some north western coastal areas. It will be just wet and windy here on Sunday with gusts in the 30’s.

The soil temperature at a depth of 5mm read 13.1C at 08.00 due to the recent warm days and especially mild nights after a low of 4.9C on the 11th.

There was much welcome sunshine on Thursday that, combined with the flow of warm air from the south-east, meant a warm day as the thermometer peaked at 18.C at 14.33. This high was 2.9C above my 40-year average and the warmest day since 21st September.

The sky overnight was initially clear with a great image of the very large Hunter moon, however, that allowed the warmth to dissipate into the atmosphere allowing the temperature to drop to 6.1C at 02.33 early Friday being 1.3C below my long-term average. This was a much large diurnal variation of 11.7C compared to that recently of 1.6C.

It was a dry day, the first for a week, with Low UV, not unreasonable for this time on the year.

The low temperature overnight, combined with very wet ground, allowed misty conditions to form but not dense enough to be classed as fog. It was the fifth morning when the humidity read 100% at 08.00, unusual for October, more like November. The wind direction has seen it back from southeast to southwest earlier today and later will return to the south, but mainly light.

The deep low pressure system just south of Iceland continues to deepen rapidly with a very low centre pressure of 960mb by 12.00 today. The track of the system is projected to take it more towards Scotland and Northern England than our area for Sunday but rain and strong winds, from the tightly packed isobars, will give us a breezy day.

The flow of moist, warm air from far south continued on Wednesday that saw the thermometer rise to 17.1C at 14.05 before dropping back slightly. This maximum was 2.2C above my 40-year average and the warmest day since 26th September.

It was a dry day but overcast and misty. The next rain band arrived at 17.20 producing 12.6mm of precipitation taking the monthly total to 82.0mm, just 9mm below my 40-year October average.

The overnight minimum of 10.8C was logged at 07.27 early Thursday being 3.4C above the long-term average, so another mild night.

The start to Thursday revealed that the dull, dreary beginning to recent days had passed and variable light and high cloud allowed a bright start to the new day. Overnight radiation fog had formed in the River Og valley that had all but dispersed by 07.30. The wind direction has changed from southeast on Wednesday to southwest overnight as the next weather system edges closer.

The Atlantic synoptic charts show a very large low pressure system developing just south of Iceland that is deepening rapidly and slowly heading our way. The forecast pressure at its centre will be an extremely low pressure of 962mb by midnight. However, the extreme wind and rain is likely to have greatest effect over Scotland and Northern England although it will breezy and wet here on Sunday. The wind gusts are forecast to reach 40mph over high,exposed ground locally.

Tuesday gave us another cloudy, damp and overcast day. The difference between that and Monday was the temperature. An air stream from the southeast brought much milder air that saw the thermometer slowly rise during the day to reach a maximum of 15.8C late afternoon at 16.16. This peak was 0.9C above my 40-year average and the warmest day since the 7th (16.9C). The rainfall that started to fall at 19.15, amounted to 4.0mm taking the monthly total to 69.3mm, just 21mm below the average for the whole month.

Once again the thick cloud cover kept in much of the warmth overnight that saw a minimal fall in temperature with a minimum of 14.6C at 05.55 early Wednesday, thus a diurnal range of just 1.2C.

Wednesday revealed another overcast and dull start to the new day, however at 08.00 the thermometer read 15.C, which was 0.8C above the average maximum for October. Although it is very misty with the humidity reading 100% at 08.00, where it was for much of Tuesday, the fog is less dense with visibility limited to 500m as the cloud base is a little higher today.

The warm air is being brought to us on a southerly or southeasterly drift that will back into the southwest during the evening. The track of the airstream can be traced back to Southern France, Spain and the Mediterranean, which is likely to continue for another day or two.

The rain ceased just after 09.00 on Monday but there was persistent light rain and drizzle from the thick, low cloud all day on Monday that limited the temperature rise to a maximum of just 11.4C at 16.00 being 3.5C below my 40-year average. The additional precipitin was 2.1mm taking the monthly total to 65.3mm when the long-term average is 91.0mm.

The thick, low cloud was maintained overnight that produced a mild night as the temperature eased downwards to a minimum of 10.1C at 00.30 early Tuesday before edging upwards to reach 10.5C at 08.00. The past twenty-four hours have been noticeable for not only the cloud but very light winds, a maximum movement of 10mph at its peak, the calmest day and night all month.

The conditions over the past twenty-four hours have produced a very small diurnal range, the difference between day and night extremes, of just 1.3C.

The recent high pressure, now to the east, is blocking the advance of significant rain from the large area of low pressure in the Atlantic. The day will be mainly cloudy thanks to minor weather fronts crossing our area, perhaps lifting allowing a little brightness in the afternoon. The barometric pressure has eased upwards to read 1015.3mb at 08.00.