Category: Commentary

The research that Lincoln University had requested, via my national meteorological organisation linked to the Met Office, concerned the partial eclipse. For this I recorded the data very 10 minutes from 00.00 on Saturday up to 09.30, then every minute until 12.30, lastly back to ten minute interval until 20.00, supplying five items of meteorological data at each time interval. During the period of the eclipse there was variable cloud that gave variable solar radiation data but noticeable was that the air temperature was very stable, with minimal variation of 11.1C or 11.2 between the lengthy period of over an hour between 10.16 and 11.25, even though the sun was shining brightly. Over that period the solar radiation varied from 603W/m2 to 339W/m2 at the time of the greatest coverage of the sun by the moon. The thermometer eventually gave a maximum of 13.3C at 15.25 that was a little depressed as after the eclipse had ended there was a significant increase in wind speed. The data was limited to those with professional equipment that was naturally aspirated and radiation shielded also sited away from buildings and hard surfaces.

The minimum overnight was a low of 6.8C at 07.22 early Sunday morning.

The earlier start on Sunday, due to the clocks changing, meant that the sun did not get to work on the air temperature until after around 07.30 with a temperature of 8.1C at 08.00.

We are fully under the control of the high pressure that has been easing in from around the Bay of Biscay yesterday, to move slowly eastwards across the UK. As it relocated overnight the wind veered from southwest yesterday to northwest for much of Sunday. The air stream is moving clockwise around the anticyclone, as it does, thus the change in word direction, the low pressure now well to the east.

This anticyclone is forecast to greatly influence our weather for the next few days as it settles around the UK.

The images appearing over these days were taken by me for the Marlborough in Bloom portfolio and presentation in 2015 when we won gold.

Friday was a decidedly chilly day as the northwesterly wind was brisk, gusting to a peak of 26mph, that depressed the temperatures and produced a wind chill at times so that it felt a degree cooler outside than indicated on the thermometer. The maximum of 14.1C was 3.4C above average but under clear skies overnight the thermometer fell away steadily reaching a low -0.8C at 05.58 early Saturday before the sun got work. This minimum was 3.5C below average and produced an air frost, being the coldest night since the 19th, also -0.8C.

Saturday began with glorious sunshine under the ridge of high pressure, there was a little thin cloud band around 07.30 that temporarily limited the strength of the sun, however, by 08.00 the thermometer had risen to 5.6C.

The solar eclipse today is expected to start at 10.07 in the UK with maximum coverage happening at 11.03 and ending at 12.00.

I am involved in meteorological research today for the department of Climate and Meteorology at Lincoln University, linked with the Met Office, which involves logging five items of weather data at one minute intervals during the eclipse period and ten minute intervals before and after that period for the rest of the day. My weather station is naturally aspirated and radiation shielded, which is vital for this research, it also logs most details at one minute intervals but I will need to record a specific detail every minute.

The images since yesterday, and for the next week, were taken by me in early April 2015 for much of the Marlborough in Bloom portfolio and presentation, when we were awarded ‘Gold’. These are the scenes we can look forward to in the coming weeks as the temperature begins to rise again.

Thursday was a cool, dreary and miserable day under the persistent thick cloud, even the wind from the southwest made it feel cold, especially in the afternoon. The thermometer struggled to reach a maximum of 10.8C at 12.20, although this was 0.1C above average we have got used to the well above average maxima this past week. It was the coldest day since the 17th (6.6C).

The diurnal range this past twenty-four hours has been minimal, just 2.7C, as the thermometer dropped to a minimum of 8.1C at 00.17 early Friday and hovered just above that temperature for most of the night.

Two cold weather fronts passed our way in the early hours of Saturday, that had seen the rainfall in them fragment as they travelled across the UK. There was precipitation of just 0.1mm in the first front that arrived at 05.20 and nothing in the second front that cleared our area by 06.50, just leaving full cloud cover. By 08.15 the back edge of the second front was showing signs of thinning and the solar radiation beginning to increase with variable sunshine possible later in the morning. The wind has veered into the Northwest, not seen for a fortnight.

With the addition of the 0.1mm precipitation this morning the total March rainfall rose to 5.3mm being only 8% of my 40-year average or minus 57.6mm. Although the loss of equivalent rainfall through evaporation from ground sources and plant life on Thursday was much reduced, due to lack of warmth and the ground having been drying out the past weeks, the total for March now stands at exactly 40mm.

The images since yesterday, and for the next week, were taken by me in early April for much of the Marlborough in Bloom portfolio and presentation in 2015, when we were awarded ‘Gold’. These are the scenes we can look forward to in the coming weeks as the temperature begins to rise again.

The welcome sunshine on Wednesday morning lasted until late afternoon, through times of variable cloud, that pushed the thermometer to reach a high of 17.0C at 14.51, which was again well above my long-term average at + 6.3C. It was the 22nd dry day this month with the UV level again rising at its peak up to the ‘Moderate’ category.

Overnight saw the thermometer slowly slide downwards to reach a low of 1.9C at 04.04. Around that time, looking at the cloud radar from that time, thin cloud and then thicker cloud drifted across from the east, as a result the temperature began to slowly recover and the humidity increase so that by 08.00 the thermometer read 8.1C.

Thursday revealed a totally cloudy sky with calm conditions.

The high pressure is stable at the moment, recently acting as a blocking high, but as the afternoon progresses, and overnight, it will slowly fall as it gives way to a depression, that by this time tomorrow will have developed just to the north of Scotland. The low pressure system will throw a couple of cold fronts down across the country that are likely to produce the first rain since the 23rd and cooler conditions. We will see by tomorrow if the additional rainfall will push the 2025 March rainfall total above the 2011 record low?

I recently came across the following news item. We will see if the future provides a more accurate weather forecast.

Aardvark Weather, a new Ai model developed by researchers in the UK and Canada, could mark a turning point in global weather forecasting by replacing traditional weather simulations with artificial intelligence to maximise cost efficiency and accuracy.

Unlike conventional forecasting tools that simulate atmospheric physics through complex equations, Aardvark Weather is a ‘deep learning’ model that generates global forecasts for wind, humidity and temperature at multiple pressure levels.

They state “By making these components more efficient, Aardvark could run forecasts more often and at higher resolutions, improving speed and accuracy”.

They comment that “Aardvark can generate a full global forecast in just one second compared to the many hours needed by older models, which would result in a drastic reduction in computing requirements”.

The evidence that the sun is getting stronger was in the UV level on Tuesday, during the strong sunshine periods, when the peak level was 4.4, logged at 12.21. This high was at the top end of the ‘Moderate’ level and the highest since 17th September. The thermometer reached a maximum of 16.1C at 14.23 being 5.4C above my long-term average whilst under clearing skies the temperature dipped away to a low 3.9C at 03.47 early Wednesday. The radar showed cloud drifting in and mist developing after 05.30 early Wednesday that allowed the temperature to rise to 8.3C by 08.00, helped by short bursts of strong sunshine through the variable early morning cloud.

By 08.00 on Wednesday the cloud had began to show larger areas of thin cloud and greater breaks, that allowed more sunshine to break through. The ridge of high pressure has developed further, which is likely to mean a dry day, having risen another 4mb since Tuesday with a reading of 1026.0mb at 08.00. With the high pressure dominant today the breeze should be light again, yesterday there was a maximum movement, couldn’t call it a gust, of just 10mph, most of the time the anemometer just slowly rotated.

The centre of the high pressure is currently off the east coast of the UK, as a result of this relocation the wind will back from northeast to southwest as the morning progresses. We have not seen an air stream from the southwest since the 5th, a much warmer direction than from the northeast.