Category: Commentary

The forecast disturbances with torrential rain did occur on Thursday, however, the heavy and continuous rain sidled northwestwards just to the west of our area. There was almost continuous light rain from just before midday until around 13.30 that amounted to 4.8mm that took the monthly total to 30.6mm when my 41-year average for June is 52.9mm. Due to the cloud and rain the maximum temperature was restricted to a peak of 21.8C late in the strong afternoon sunshine at 17.57, being 1.2C above average.

The past night was exceptionally mild thanks to the flow of warm area originating from Iberia. The minimum of 14.4C at 03.54 was 4.2C above my long-term average, which made it the warmest night since 23rd September 2024.

The Heat-health Alert Service has given a warning that just reaches into our area today as a result of the high temperatures and high humidity, that can especially affect older persons.

The new day on Friday began with variable cloud allowing bursts of strong sunshine that had lifted the temperature to 17.3C by 08.00. The weather systems over the UK are a bit messy with various areas of low pressure close to a high pressure further east over the Continent reaching into Scandinavia. The depression today will slowly move up the east cost of the UK into the North Sea, which will result in the wind veering from a principally southwesterly for much of the day to come from the east and possibly northeast to night.

Skomer Island: Skomer os an internationally important seabird island with over 41,500 Puffins, less than a mile off the beautiful Pembrokeshire coast.

During the bursts of very strong sunshine on Wednesday the thermometer rose to its highest all month with a maximum of 23.2C at 15.04 being 2.6C above my long-term average. The day was dry and the UV peaked in the ‘High’ category again. The past night was mild that saw the thermometer not drop below 12.5C at 04.46, just before sunrise in Marlborough at 04.50, being 2.3C above average.

Thursday revealed a bright start to the new day with thin high cloud. Since just before 05.00, the track of cloud on the radar showed much thicker cloud just skirting to the west of our area but just after 07.30 much thicker cloud drifted in front the southeast as a fragmented rain band edged closer.

The high pressure has moved slowly away allowing low-pressure to the west begin to dominate our weather with the rain radar showing a large area of rain edging closer from the southeast. The wind, currently from the southeast, will veer into the south later today. The barometric pressure had fallen away to 1011.5mb at 08.00, down 11mb since its peak Monday

The last four dry days have seen the loss of equivalent rainfall through evaporation from the ground and plant life exceed 3mm daily. The rainfall this month, so far, totals 25.8mm against my 41-year average of 52.9mm whilst 33.8mm of equivalent rainfall has evaporated into the atmosphere.

Puffins: the next few days will show images of Puffins taken in July 2021 on Skomer Island, Pembrokeshire.

Although there was variable cloud on Tuesday limiting the solar activity to its lowest in four days the warmer air began arriving that saw the thermometer rise to a maximum of 22.6C late in the glorious afternoon sunshine at 17.05 being 2.1C above my long-term average. This was the warmest day since 31st May. The clearer skies overnight saw the temperature drop away to a low of 8.8C at 03.42 being 1.4C below average.

Wednesday began with glorious sunshine to start the new day, however, by 06.45 cloud began to drift in from the east obscuring the sun and limiting the further rise in temperature to reach 13.2C by 08.00.

The significant change in our weather today is the arrival of an airstream from the southeast, a much warmer pool of air. This is from a direction not seen for a month. The recent high pressure has relocated a little to be over the Netherlands and reaching north over Scandinavia, that has allowed the airstream to come around its southern flank originating from the Continent.

As the day progresses, and especially on Thursday, the arrival of the warm, moist air from the south meeting the recent cooler air will likely produce storms. This coincides with a low pressure system just to the west of the UK getting much closer. The warm, moist air, being lighter than the recent cooler, heavier air, will rise rapidly over it producing unstable conditions. As the warm moist air cools with altitude it will produce precipitation, quantities and strength uncertain at the present.

Strawberry Moon: The indigenous American tribes referred to the full moon as the Strawberry Moon as it marked the harvesting of the wild strawberries. The moon will rise at 22.46 this evening with the full phase at 08.44 tomorrow.

After a cloudy start to Monday the sun did break through during the afternoon that lifted the temperature to a maximum of 19.9C at 15.49. This was the second highest temperature this month, after the 20.5C a week previous, but still 0.5C below average. However, it was another dry day with the UV level peaking at the top end of ‘High”. The past night has been very mild due to the thick cloud cover that meant the minimum of 13.1C was 3.1C above my long-term average making it the warmest night since 30th May.

The start to Tuesday was dull with very misty conditions that will persist throughout the morning. This is due to a cold weather front traversing the UK from north to south that will likely clear mid-afternoon then allowing some brightness to follow.

The high pressure has retreated a little towards the Continent that is allowing the influence of the low pressure to the north temporarily dominate our weather today. Tomorrow the slight realignment will bring an air stream from a more southerly quadrant, originating near Spain, that will be warmer and possibly more moist.

Kennet and Avon Canal: The Kennet Horse Boat Company’s horse drawn canal cruises provide an environmental friendly and peaceful way to explore a section of the canal just east of Hungerford on the traditionally painted canal boat.

With the high pressure edging closer on Sunday the result was a dry day with a modest recovery in the temperatures as although the maximum of 17.2C at 15.10 was 3.4C below my long-term average it was an improvement on the previous cool day. Sunday was also dry with the UV level peaking in the ‘High’ category during the variable sunshine. The cloud overnight meant an average minimum temperature of 10.3C logged at 05.40 being 0.1C above the seasonal average.

The start to Monday revealed a cloudy beginning to the new day, however, shortly around 08.00 bursts of brief, weak sunshine appeared that had lifted the temperature to 14.6C by 08.00.

The improvement in the temperature by day, and especially last night, saw the ground temperature at a depth of 5cm read 15.0C at 08.00. This was the highest temperature since the 2nd.

The anticyclone in the Atlantic has spread its influence across to the Continent and will be the major factor in our weather over the next few days. As a result the barometric pressure has risen further with a reading of 1022.1mb at 08.00 being the highest this month. The slight relocation of the high pressure has seen the wind back a few degrees to come from the west-southwest or southwest today, a much warmer direction. This trend will continue for the next few days with the daytime maximum temperature likely getting above average on Tuesday, and then rising further. However, there is the likelihood mid-week of an airstream from the south bringing more humid but warmer air that could spark off some stormy conditions.