Category: Commentary

The first day of June gave us a below average maximum of 19.9C at 15.17 thanks to the cold front that moved through during the night resulting in a very brisk westerly breeze gusting to 20mph at its peak. It was another dry day with the UV peaking in the ‘High’ category. The cooler air and clear overnight sky produced a much cooler night, the coolest for over a week with a minimum of 8.3C at 05.04, just after sunrise in Marlborough at 04.55, also below average at -1.9C.

The start to Monday was a glorious sunrise followed by strong sunshine that will give us a fine and warm day under variable cloud, thanks to a very brief ridge of high pressure that is keeping the depression to the north at bay, just for today.

This will be the last of the fine, dry and warm days as from Tuesday we will come under the influence of a deep depression, currently off the coast of Scotland, that will bring unsettled weather for the rest of the week with sunshine and showers resulting in a fresher feel to the weather. There is a potential for more substantial rain on Thursday but not yet certain.

May 2025 Review

The month began with very warm days as the breeze came from a warm southeasterly direction with a maximum of 28.1C on the 1st, being a significant 10.8C above my long-term average.

By the 3rd a high-pressure system had begun to develop and become the dominant feature for the following week continuing the dry period. Sadly, it meant a persistent northeasterly breeze, strong at times, with variable cloud that depressed the daytime maxima. On both the 4th and 5th the thermometer struggled to reach 13.9C being 3.4C below average.

This period also brought very chilly nights that saw the temperature fall very close to freezing with a minimum of 0.7C in the early hours of the 6th. As a gardener I was very anxious for the tender plants that I had perhaps set out in the garden too early after the previous very warm spell, but thankfully no air frost occurred so no damage was caused but it probably slowed their development.

The other significant feature of the weather was the continuation of the dry period until just 0.6mm and 0.5mm fell on 11th and 13th. During the latter-day thunderstorms developed and tracked north-eastwards from Kent to South Wales, just missing Marlborough. The same occurred on the previous day, but just to the north of our region.

The high pressure to the north then built, extending its influence across the country whilst at the same time elbowing the recent depression back into the Atlantic, whence it came, where it filled and disappeared.

The fine sunny weather returned, albeit with chilly nights, into the following week. The thermometer dropped to a surprisingly low minimum of 1.9C in the early hours of the 23rd.

Numerous thunderstorms passed us by on the 21st with minimal rainfall, that appeared to deflect around Marlborough to the west and east. One noisy thunderstorm passed overhead at 17.10 on the 21st but minimal precipitation fell from it, just 3.1mm.

It was all change on the 24th that saw the end of the dominant high-pressure system to the north that had brought persistent northeasterlies. A depression arrived, centred between Ireland and Iceland, that saw the first breeze from a Westerly quadrant for over a month, but alas for gardeners, little rainfall overnight of the 23rd.

Some useful precipitation fell on the 27th then 9mm was recorded on the 28th making that the wettest day of the month.

The last week was initially dominated by unsettled weather principally due to a succession of weather fronts arriving from the Atlantic, such a contrast to much of the month. However, the last three days saw the high pressure to the south of the UK edge closer with a flow of sub-tropical air that lifted maxima well above average.

The total rainfall for May amounted to just 23.9mm being only 40% of my 41-year average or 36.5mm below. The total rainfall covering the period of January to May was 259mm against the 41-year average of 338mm. Thus, this was only 79mm below the 41-year average due to the very wet first two months of 2025.

The average temperature for May was 1.2C above my long-term average, principally due to the numerous very warm days and no overnight air frosts, although it got close with a minimum of 0.7C in the early hours of the 6th.

Thunder was heard on the 21st on several occasions, the first at 12.45, then 15.10 and for a short period at 17.10 when it was overhead.

May ended where it began with dry, warm weather that saw the temperature rise to a peak of 24.1C at 13.12. after a very sunny morning, variable cloud drifted over during the afternoon that limited any further rise. The residual sub-tropical air meant a mild night although a little cooler than previous nights with a minimum of 11.2C at 04.41, just before the sun rose in Marlborough at 04.56. This low was 1.0C above my long-term average for June.

Sunday had a splendid start under glorious sunshine with the thermometer having risen to 14.4C by 08.00. During the night two cold fronts passed our way so today will not be quite so warm but likely to continue the dry trend although the rain radar this morning showed shower activity just north of Bristol and Exmoor at 08.20.

Tomorrow will see a transient ridge of high pressure assert itself to bring a dry day with sunny periods.

May 2025 Review

The month began with very warm days as the breeze came from a warm southeasterly direction with a maximum of 28.1C on the 1st, being a significant 10.8C above my long-term average.

By the 3rd a high-pressure system had begun to develop and become the dominant feature for the following week continuing the dry period. Sadly, it meant a persistent northeasterly breeze, strong at times, with variable cloud that depressed the daytime maxima. On both the 4th and 5th the thermometer struggled to reach 13.9C being 3.4C below average.

This period also brought very chilly nights that saw the temperature fall very close to freezing with a minimum of 0.7C in the early hours of the 6th. As a gardener I was very anxious for the tender plants that I had perhaps set out in the garden too early after the previous very warm spell, but thankfully no air frost occurred so no damage was caused but it probably slowed their development.

The other significant feature of the weather was the continuation of the dry period until just 0.6mm and 0.5mm fell on 11th and 13th. During the latter-day thunderstorms developed and tracked north-eastwards from Kent to South Wales, just missing Marlborough. The same occurred on the previous day, but just to the north of our region.

The high pressure to the north then built, extending its influence across the country whilst at the same time elbowing the recent depression back into the Atlantic, whence it came, where it filled and disappeared.

The fine sunny weather returned, albeit with chilly nights, into the following week. The thermometer dropped to a surprisingly low minimum of 1.9C in the early hours of the 23rd.

Numerous thunderstorms passed us by on the 21st with minimal rainfall, that appeared to deflect around Marlborough to the west and east. One noisy thunderstorm passed overhead at 17.10 on the 21st but minimal precipitation fell from it, just 3.1mm.

It was all change on the 24th that saw the end of the dominant high-pressure system to the north that had brought persistent northeasterlies. A depression arrived, centred between Ireland and Iceland, that saw the first breeze from a Westerly quadrant for over a month, but alas for gardeners, little rainfall overnight of the 23rd.

Some useful precipitation fell on the 27th then 9mm was recorded on the 28th making that the wettest day of the month.

The last week was initially dominated by unsettled weather principally due to a succession of weather fronts arriving from the Atlantic, such a contrast to much of the month. However, the last three days saw the high pressure to the south of the UK edge closer with a flow of sub-tropical air that lifted maxima well above average.

The total rainfall for May amounted to just 23.9mm being only 40% of my 41-year average or 36.5mm below. The total rainfall covering the period of January to May was 259mm against the 41-year average of 338mm. Thus, this was only 79mm below the 41-year average due to the very wet first two months of 2025.

The average temperature for May was 1.2C above my long-term average, principally due to the numerous very warm days and no overnight air frosts, although it got close with a minimum of 0.7C in the early hours of the 6th.

Thunder was heard on the 21st on several occasions, the first at 12.45, then 15.10 and for a short period at 17.10 when it was overhead.

Friday was the penultimate warm day this month when the thermometer rose to a maximum of 23.6C at 15.19 being exactly 6.0C above my long-term average. There were many hours of strong sunshine that again lifted the UV level into the ‘Very High’ category with value of 7.6, the highest since August 18th 2024. This high level occurred between 12.10 and 12.08 only, as variable cloud meant the afternoon brought variable sunshine with lower UV light, if only to the ‘High’ category. Another mild night has just passed under the influence of the sub-tropical air stream that saw the thermometer fall no further than a minimum of 12.4C at 05.42, which was 5.4C above average. The low was some 45 minutes after the sun rose due to the formation of radiation fog, mainly in the valleys around Marlborough.

Saturday after dawn revealed that radiation fog had filled the valleys of the River Og and River Kennet in the early hours that at 06.30 limited visibility to 400m whilst over the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest the fog was far less dense and to the east visibility was not far from normal, just misty conditions. The wind will continue from a westerly quadrant and be light in strength. The strength of the sun was very strong that by 07.00 almost all evidence of the fog and mist had cleared and visibility was ‘good’.

Today will be the last of the very warm days that have been thanks to a stream of sub-tropical air from near the Azores. During this evening a cold front, associated with the depression just to the northwest of Scotland, will pass over the UK bringing much cooler air. The week ahead will bring more unsettled weather but at the moment little evidence of any substantial rainfall.

The May rainfall total was just 23.9mm being only 40% of my 41-year average, being the driest since 2020 when just 8.2mm of precipitation was recorded.

The air stream, originating from far south, continued to bring the subtropical air on Thursday that gave us a very warm and sunny day with the thermometer rising to a peak of 24.1C at 15.38, which made it the second warmest day this month after the very high of 28.1C on the 1st, being a significant 6.8C above average. This trend continued overnight giving us a very mild night with the thermometer not sinking below 13.8C logged at 04.57, almost exactly at sunrise in Marlborough at 04.58, also being a significant 6.8C above my long-term average. The day was dry with the UV level of 7.0 again, reaching at its peak, rising to the ‘Very High” category.

At first on Friday there was variable cloud, however, by 07.30 this was beginning to disperse and breaks of sunshine appeared. As the anticyclone to the south edges closer the wind today will become much less breezy than of late varying in direction between west-southwest and west. The day will be even warmer than on Thursday, however, the air is more humid than of late due to the long-travel of the air over the Atlantic.

The high pressure to the South is winning the battle of the two main weather systems, edging a little further north, with the pressure continuing to slowly rise, up 5mb since Tuesday. Thus there is little evidence at the moment of any precipitation over the next few days.

The rainfall total for May stands at just 23.9mm against the 41-year average of 60.4mm, whilst the last two days has seen the equivalent of 3mm of rainfall lost to the atmosphere due to evaporation from plant life and the ground.

The very strong sunshine on Wednesday pushed the thermometer to a peak of 19.8C early in the afternoon at 14.47, which was 2.5C above my long-term average and the warmest day for almost a week. There was an extremely strong burst of sunshine from 12.58 to 13.00 when the UV level briefly rose to a value of 7.2 being in the ‘Very High’ category for the second time this month after a similar occasion on Monday. For much of the hours just before and after that the UV level was in the High category between cloud breaks.

It has been a very mild night, that is three in succession, with a low of 12.4C logged in the early hours of Thursday at 01.59 being a significant 5.4C above my long-term average. This was due to the persistent thick cloud cover and the passing of a warm front that also produced a little rainfall amounting to 0.3mm that triggered the automatic rain gauge at 04.39.

Thursday revealed a sky with 8/8 cloud cover being the hang back of cloud from the warm front that passed our way in the early hours. As the low-pressure fills and the high pressure fills, today will be the last day of strong winds for the next few days.

The depression centred over the north of the Scotland is the predominant driving force of our weather for the next couple of days bringing unsettled conditions. This low-pressure system is combining with the anticyclone currently centred over the Bay of Biscay that is bringing us a westerly air flow of sub-tropical air, hence the above average temperatures. However, the anticyclone will continue to moderate our weather as low pressure systems arrive from the Atlantic towards the north of the UK, with little indication of any substantial rainfall, any precipitation will arrive in the form of shower activity.

There have been yet again been headline reports in the press of heatwaves arriving with the UK basking in very high temperatures. However, the Met Office last month put out a statement that “different simulations produce different pictures of the weather forecast and one-off, single charts, do not provide the broader forecasting picture. The actual forecast is developed using a mix of of hundreds of computer model simulations”.