Category: Commentary

Tuesday 26th August
Monday gave us a Bank Holiday day to remember when the temperature soared to 27.5C at 15.51, under very strong sunshine aided by a drift of very warm air from the hot Continent on a southerly breeze that was brisker than recent days. This high was 5.4C above the last August average and the hottest day since the 15th (28.4C). The UV level rose to a value of 5.3, the highest for a week being at the top end of ‘High’ whilst the day was the fourteenth consecutive dry day.

The past night was initially clear but cloud began to drift in from the west just after midnight that limited the drop in temperature to a minimum of 15.0C at 04.39 early Tuesday, being 3.8C above average.

First light on Tuesday revealed a cloudy sky. I did observe one brief glimpse of weak sunshine at 06.28 that appeared through a small band of thinner cloud on the eastern horizon. However, shortly after 06.30 the first few drops of rain in a fortnight fell from the cold front crossing our area. The weather front is a narrow, fragmented band that produced a few drops but did no fully wet the hard surfaces but it was followed by low cloud and light drizzle that masked the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest limiting visibility to around 1,000m, that amounted to 0.2mm by 08.15. The wind direction has also made a significant change in that the persistent northeast or easterly direction has been replaced by a southwesterly bringing more moist air from the Atlantic and greater in strength.

The remains of ex-hurricane Erin have been absorbed into the depression between Ireland and Iceland that has seen its centre pressure rise from 966mb yesterday to 981mb, forecast at 12.00 today, a significant rise. Our local barometric pressure has seen a significant fall of 10mb over the past twenty-four hours as the recent anticyclone has split and moved across to Scandinavia and another over Turkey whilst the depression moved closer. The barometric pressure at 08.00 read 1007.7mb, the lowest all month.

The next few days will bring us changeable weather as the depression edges closer with much more rain likely on Wednesday from a more vigorous and wider weather front.

Interesting: Research finds that people in the UK spend on average 56.6 hours every year talking about the weather, or two days and 9 hours. Some 60% say the weather is their go-to small talk topic, while more education on weather patterns and how they affect broader society would be welcome for a fifth of respondents

Once again the temperature built quickly during Sunday morning that by 12.00 was within 1C of the maximum of 23.7C logged at 13.28. Variable cloud was observed arriving just before 12.00 that thickened during the afternoon hence the maximum was early rather than late afternoon. The clearer skies overnight produced a cool night that saw the thermometer drop to a minimum of 9.9C at 06.13 early Monday that almost coincided with sunrise in Marlborough at 06.08, being 1.3C below average.

Monday gave us a fine start to the new day with strong sunshine shortly after sunrise that had lifted the temperature to 15.3C by 08.00. The large area of high pressure, that had dominated our weather for a week, has slipped further east and as a result, during yesterday and again today, the very light breeze will come from the south carrying with it considerable warmth from the hot Continent. This will be the last of the hot dry days before we come under the influence of the depression edging towards the UK.

The remains of ex-hurricane Erin, now a depression, has a current deep centre barometric pressure of 961mb and is closing in on the UK that by Tuesday will see the depression between Scotland and Iceland. The low pressure system will likely throw a weather front across the country early Tuesday that could produce some rain, amount not certain at this time. It will be Wednesday before we come fully under the influence of the depression with cooler temperatures, windy conditions and showery activity.

The tropical storm named Erin, that formed off the west coast of Africa, deepened significantly before drifting northwest, to the north of the Caribbean, and was then caught up in the Jet Stream before being driven northeast across the Atlantic towards the UK.

The summer images over the next couple of weeks will be from Madeira, an autonomous region of Portugal, an archipelago comprising 4 islands off the northwest coast of Africa.

Sunday 24th August
The temperature rose steadily on Saturday until just after 11.00 when it reached 19.9C and began to plateau followed by a slower rise, reaching a high of 22.7C at 16.14, which was only just above the August average at +0.6C. The average temperature and the UV level at its peak reached up to the ‘Moderate’ level due to the variable cloud cover and the breeze from the cool northeasterly direction. However, there was little air movement, at times the anemometer was becalmed, with a maximum air movement of 11mph on one occasion. The cloud cover overnight gave us a mild night, in fact the warmest since last Monday, with a minimum of 15.3C logged at 06.22 early Sunday, just after the sunrise in Marlborough at 06.06.

The first hour or so after sunrise on Sunday was dominated by 7/8ths cloud cover but around 07.45 the sun began to break through that had lifted the temperature to 16.2C by 08.00.

The high pressure is still dominant although very slowly beginning to fill with a reading of 1020.9mb at 08.00. The track of ex-hurricane Erin is still forecast to bring it in the North Atlantic between Scotland and Iceland. Before that we have two fine, warm or very warm day ahead. On Tuesday a cold weather front ahead of the depression is likely to bring more cloud and possible precipitation, amounts unclear at the moment. It is by Wednesday when the stronger winds and more unsettled weather reaches our area with likely rain showers.

With a little summer still left I am starting a new series of images, this time from the colourful island of Madeira, mainly from the town and countryside around Funchal.

Saturday 23rd August
The temperature recovered quickly on Friday morning, after the very cool start, until just after 11.00 when there was a more gradual increase in temperature that reached a maximum of 23.6C at 16.07 being 1.5C above average that made it the warmest day since last Sunday. This rise in temperature was partly due to the wind backing away from the cool northeast to north and then west-northwest combined with the anticyclone being almost overhead that meant calm conditions, the strongest movement of air, couldn’t be called a gust, was 9mph. The past night was less cold than the previous very cool night, however, a minimum of 8.5C logged on Saturday at 06.32, just after sunrise in Marlborough at 06.05, was below average at -2.7C.

The new day on Saturday revealed that the cloud was almost continuous, but thin, allowing weak sunshine to filter through, that had lifted the temperature to 11.1C by 08.00. Later this afternoon the air stream will veer into an easterly quadrant and then this evening a southerly quadrant. All day the breeze will be very light between periods of calm.

The anticyclone this morning is almost overhead southern England so another calm day ahead with only light breezes. There is the possibility of more cloud drifting down from the north that would limit severely the sunshine today.

The remains of ex-hurricane Erin is currently just off the coast of Newfoundland and slowly heading our way carried along on the jet stream. The current projection indicates that by Tuesday it will be positioned between Scotland and Iceland. If that is correct we will be on the periphery of the intense centre of the low-pressure with modest rain, windy conditions and below average maxima.

New research from the Met Office reveals that we spend on average 56.6 hours, or two days and 9 hours, talking about the weather over the course of a year.

Friday 22nd August.
After a very cool day on Wednesday, Thursday was a little warmer with a maximum of 20.4C, logged at 16.37, thanks to the late afternoon sunshine, however this was still below average at -1.7C.

An area of clear sky over southern England meant much warmth dissipated into the atmosphere overnight that saw the thermometer drop very low with a minimum of 4.5C logged at 06.09 early Friday. This low was a significant 6.7C below my long-term average, which made it the coldest night since 22nd May, not helped by the airstream from the north initially, a cool direction.

Although sunrise in Marlborough was at 06.03 an arm of cloud extended to the east of Marlborough that denied any sunshine, although a little brightness was observed. As a result the thermometer only rose to 7.1C by 08.00 making it the coolest start to a new day at that time since 6th May. The radar showed a large bank of cloud to the north of our area that was steadily moving south so that by 07.15 broken cloud had arrived with no likelihood of sunshine to boost the temperature until later in the morning.

The area of high pressure has narrowed or elongated, extending further south, as a result this relocation will see the breeze come from the west-northwest today, a less cool direction and thankfully be much lighter. The centre of the anticyclone is just to the west of the country that has seen the barometric pressure rise to 1023.0mb at 08.00, the highest for five days that will mean a dry day ahead and likely for the weekend.

The forecast charts show the remains of ex-hurricane Erin heading towards the north of the UK by Monday with a very deep centre of pressure, forecast to be as low as 965mb, which will result in stormy conditions over Scotland and very breezy further south, however, amounts of precipitation for my very dry garden are uncertain.

Another interesting comment from the Met Office on recent dramatic weather headlines. “UK weather: Exactly when Britain will be hotter than Ibiza with major 31C heat blast forecast,” claims another headline. The Met Office comment “The forecast suggests a mobile Atlantic pattern with intermittent rain and showers. While temperatures may rise above average briefly, the overall outlook remains near average. The reduced likelihood of heatwaves means that while some areas may experience warmth, it’s unlikely to rival Mediterranean conditions across the board.” Interesting contrast!