With another 10.8mm of rainfall within the last twenty-four hours the total for November is 84.1mm, which is close to the long-term average of 90.1mm. Yesterday was another dismal day with minimal UV value of 0.9 and no direct sunshine, the fourth such day this month. The upside is that temperatures by day and night continue to be above average and the soil temperature at a depth of 5cm is still high at 8.2C.
Author: Eric Gilbert
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Very mild weather continues
As depressions continue to affect the UK the above average temperatures continue. Yesterday the maximum was 12.4C, which is 2.5C above the long-term average. Rainfall overnight was again in double figures, the fourth such occasion this month, with a daily total of 11.3mm bringing the total this month to 72mm. The maximum wind gust registered over the last 24 hours was 30mph.
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11th brought much rain and little solar energy
Yesterday produced another day of considerable rainfall with the heaviest this month of 14.8mm. Being overcast all day, with heavy cloud, it was the lowest figure for solar energy since February 2014. There was no direct sunshine for the second day in November.
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Analysis of first air frost of every autumn since 1985.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its report this week reviewed the latest scientific evidence for climate change.
I have analysed the evidence for just one aspect of the climate in Marlborough over the last thirty years, namely the date when the first air frost of autumn occurred since 1985.
Taking the years in groups of five since 1985 and then taking an average, the trend in these averages over the last thirty years can be seen. Using the datum of 1st September the average number of days since that date for the first period of 1985-1989 is 30 days or 30th September.
After a slight regression to 28th September for the next five year average of 1990-1994, the trend is then distinctly later in the year. The average for the first air frost of the year moves to 9th October, 26th October, 27th October and lastly to 1st November for the 2010-2014 group of years.
Although memories are fallible and we remember certain mild autumns that we enjoyed over the recent years, the evidence is quiet clear from the data above that there has been a significant shift to a much later date in the year for the first air frost of autumn.
