Author: Eric Gilbert

Saturday 4th October
We got off very lightly after Storm Amey passed over the UK during the past twenty-four hours. Thankfully, it tracked far to the north of our area so although windy and wet we did not experience extreme conditions due to the distance from the centre of the storm. At 20.00 the centre of the storm had a very deep barometric pressure reading of 955mb whilst the pressure here at that time was 999mb, quite a contrast in the pressure gradient, hence the strong winds that gusted to 30mph. The warm southwesterly wind meant a mild day that saw the temperature rise to a maximum of 17.0C, unusually late in the day, in fact in the early evening at 19.10. The high was 2.1C above average. This temperature was held until just after 23.00 before the thermometer began to fall reaching a minimum 9.6C at 07.31 early Saturday morning. The thermometer fell steadily in the early hours as the sky began to clear thus the drop in temperature that started just before midnight.

The rainfall over the past twenty-four hours amounted to 12.4mm.

The start to the new day on Saturday revealed a mainly clear sky with welcome sunshine. The rain radar indicated that several showers over recent hours had been passing just to the south of Marlborough and continued. The wind has been veering into the west, as the storm relocates, which is a slightly cooler direction and with less moisture, the humidity at 08.00 read 76.5%, the lowest for a couple of weeks at that time. The wind strength will increase during the morning, and only subside during the evening and into Sunday, which will still be breezy. The pressure gradient was still considerable at 12.00, between the centre pressure over Scotland of 948mb and 1001mb in Marlborough, hence the strong, gusty winds.

Storm Amey is now slowly tracking northeastwards towards Scandinavia, which will result in calmer conditions today and mainly dry. At the same time a high pressure area is developing just to the west of the Bay of Biscay that will slowly ridge across the UK bringing more settled conditions with the return of sunshine and average temperatures over the next few days.

Marlborough Mop Fairs. It is aid that to show their trade and availability for work, domestic workers would carry a mop, and farm workers would carry a rake or other tool, hence the name Mop Fairs.

Friday 3rd October
Thursday gave us a bright day with minimal brief sunshine after midday that lifted the temperature to a peak of 17.6C at 14.21 being 2.8C above average. It was the last of the dry days before the arrival of Storm Amey today. The cloud cover brought in on the warm, southerly breeze gave us a mild night with a minimum of 13.4C in the early hours of Friday at 03.02, being 6.0C above average. The start to October has given us both maximum and minimum temperatures above average in contrast to the week or more of below average temperatures at the end of September.

Friday arrived very slowly under very dull conditions resulting in the weather front that crossed in the early hours producing 8.4mm of precipitation. By first light the low cloud was producing misty conditions that blanketed the tops of the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest.

The barometric pressure has fallen a significant 12mb since yesterday with a reading of 1010.2mb at 08.00. The pressure has been falling steadily since last evening as Storm Amey moved closer from the eastern Atlantic. The track of the storm can be confidently forecast to have its greatest impact to the northwest of the UK and particularly Scotland. However, Southern England will have periods of heavy rain with the wind gaining strength as the day progresses. Friday evening is going to be especially stormy.

Later on Sunday, as Storm Amey eases away northeastwards towards Scandinavia, an area of high pressure down towards the Azores is forecast to develop that will bring calmer, dry and sunnier weather from Monday.

Although Wednesday morning was cloudy, the sun broke through after midday and raised the temperature to a maximum of 18.9C at 15.49 being exactly 4.0C above the October average. The afternoon was especially pleasant as the breeze from the southwest was very light, just one occasion when the air movement reached into double figures of 11mph. The past cloudy night meant a mild night with the lowest temperature reached at midnight. Usually the temperature slowly drops in the early hours but in fact it rose to 12.0C just after 02.00 before falling back to 10.7C again at 08.00.

Thursday dawned with misty conditions from the moist, mild southerly airstream. At 07.00 I observed that fog had briefly drifted across and masked the Marlborough Downs and Savernake Forest but just after 07.30 this had disappeared.

The barometric pressure over the past twenty-four hours has varied little, just a drop of 3mb since Wednesday, and at the moment is steady. There is much more confidence in the track of Storm Amy that is likely to close in on the northwest over the next two days. This will bring us spells of very wet and windy conditions but modest compared to the conditions over Scotland and the Northwest. The centre of Storm Amy is forecast to have a very deep centre pressure of 962mb within twenty-four hours and deepen significantly by midnight on Friday to an extremely low pressure of 939mb. At that time, we will be some distance from the centre of the storm but the pressure here will drop a significant 25mb, which is exceptional over a twenty-four hour period, with a forecast pressure of 1000mb.

September 2025 Review

After the hot months of the past summer, September arrived with weather more resembling autumn.

The first week brought sunshine and showers with much welcome rain on the 2nd and 3rd, the two-day total of 35.8mm was more than the August total. The notable feature also was the flow of air from the Continent that kept the maximum and minimum temperatures around or just above average.

The second week was dominated by a series of depressions to the northwest that produced variable quantities of rain and subdued temperatures due to the variable cloud cover. The maxima from the 10th to the 16th were all below average with often strong south-westerly winds, a peak of 28mph was logged on the 14th.

Following so many dry days in the past six months it was a significant change in the weather pattern to have eight consecutive days with precipitation that took the monthly total above my 41-year average by the 14th, the first since February.

The 18th and 19th were memorable for a south-westerly airstream that brought us fine warm air from around the Azores region, which resulted in a maximum of 25.0C during the Friday afternoon making it the warmest day since 15th August.

A significant change in the weather arrived during the evening of the 20th. This was due to the recent low pressure system migrating eastwards over Scandinavia and allowing a large area of high pressure to edge in from the Atlantic that began to build. As a result, the wind veered from the recent southwest to north over the following twenty-four hours. The airstream circulating clockwise around the high pressure, as it does, was originating near Iceland before descending south across the UK, thus a much cooler airstream.

The last week brought us very cool days and even cooler nights under the influence of the northeasterly airstream that brought Arctic air. There were nine consecutive days with maxima below average, the coldest being 13.6C on the 26th, which was 5.4C below my long-term average.

The nights were cold due to a combination of the cool air originating from the north, clear skies and calm conditions with no breeze to stir up the atmosphere. We just missed an air frost, although minima of 0.4C and 0.7C in the early hours of the 23rd and 29th resulted on a short-lived ground frost.

The last two days brought sunny intervals and recovering temperatures as an Azores High began to build linking up with the old anticyclone, then over Scandinavia. This resulted in the first above average maxima of 19.5C since the 19th.

The rainfall for October amounted to 79.5mm, which was 119% of my 41-year average, or plus 13mm, measured in my 5” copper Met Office rain gauge. It was the first above average monthly rainfall since February. This was such a contrast to the very wet September of 2024 when 221.4mm was recorded. There were 12 totally dry days with the wettest occurring on the 3rd when 20.6mm was logged.

There were considerable variations in the daytime temperatures, varying from a peak of 25.0C on the 19th to a very cool 13.9C on the 26th under total cloud cover and a northeasterly breeze. The nighttime minima also gave us wide variations with a warm night on the 18th when a minimum of 16.8C was recorded that contrasted against 0.4C in the early hours of the 23rd when a ground frost occurred, if briefly. The average temperature for September was 13.8C, which was 0.4C below average but interestingly the same as in 2024

Wednesday 1st October
Tuesday, the last day of September, was a very pleasant dry and warm day under the ridge of high pressure that produced many hours of sunshine that lifted the thermometer to a maximum of 19.5C at 14.39. This peak was 0.5C above average and it was the warmest day since the 19th. The residual warmth and encroaching cloud in the early hours of Wednesday meant the minimum of 5.3C was logged in the early hours at 01.22. The large, fragmented weather front to the north had a tail of thin broken cloud that saw the thermometer rise again to reach 7.8C by 08.00.

The start to Wednesday revealed a cloudy sky from the tail of the weather front that produced a few drops of rain, not measurable, at 07.50. By 09.00 the cloud was beginning to thin and the sky to brighten.

There is now more certainty in the track of ex-hurricane Humberto. The forecast track takes it up the west coast of Ireland and towards the west coast of Scotland that is going to bear the brunt of the stormy conditions. The centre of the ex-tropical storm is forecast to be very deep with a barometric pressure reading of 945mb Friday evening.

The cloud over southern England will build on Friday with precipitation late Friday night into the early hours of Saturday. At the same time the winds will begin to strengthen significantly probably reaching in excess of 40mph on high ground.

News Flash. The approaching disturbed weather system has just been named Storm Amy by the Met Office, the first named UK storm of the season. The Met Office state “Just ahead of ex-Hurricane Humberto, a deep area of low pressure will develop. Though it will contain remnants of the tropical storm Humberto, it will be a separate weather system”. This is why it has been named Storm Amy and not retained the name Humberto.

September 2025 Review

After the hot months of the past summer, September arrived with weather more resembling autumn.

The first week brought sunshine and showers with much welcome rain on the 2nd and 3rd, the two-day total of 35.8mm was more than the August total. The notable feature also was the flow of air from the Continent that kept the maximum and minimum temperatures around or just above average.

The second week was dominated by a series of depressions to the northwest that produced variable quantities of rain and subdued temperatures due to the variable cloud cover. The maxima from the 10th to the 16th were all below average with often strong south-westerly winds, a peak of 28mph was logged on the 14th.

Following so many dry days in the past six months it was a significant change in the weather pattern to have eight consecutive days with precipitation that took the monthly total above my 41-year average by the 14th, the first since February.

The 18th and 19th were memorable for a south-westerly airstream that brought us fine warm air from around the Azores region, which resulted in a maximum of 25.0C during the Friday afternoon making it the warmest day since 15th August.

A significant change in the weather arrived during the evening of the 20th. This was due to the recent low pressure system migrating eastwards over Scandinavia and allowing a large area of high pressure to edge in from the Atlantic that began to build. As a result, the wind veered from the recent southwest to north over the following twenty-four hours. The airstream circulating clockwise around the high pressure, as it does, was originating near Iceland before descending south across the UK, thus a much cooler airstream.

The last week brought us very cool days and even cooler nights under the influence of the northeasterly airstream that brought Arctic air. There were nine consecutive days with maxima below average, the coldest being 13.6C on the 26th, which was 5.4C below my long-term average.

The nights were cold due to a combination of the cool air originating from the north, clear skies and calm conditions with no breeze to stir up the atmosphere. We just missed an air frost, although minima of 0.4C and 0.7C in the early hours of the 23rd and 29th resulted on a short-lived ground frost.

The last two days brought sunny intervals and recovering temperatures as an Azores High began to build linking up with the old anticyclone, then over Scandinavia. This resulted in the first above average maxima of 19.5C since the 19th.

The rainfall for October amounted to 79.5mm, which was 119% of my 41-year average, or plus 13mm, measured in my 5” copper Met Office rain gauge. It was the first above average monthly rainfall since February. This was such a contrast to the very wet September of 2024 when 221.4mm was recorded. There were 12 totally dry days with the wettest occurring on the 3rd when 20.6mm was logged.

There were considerable variations in the daytime temperatures, varying from a peak of 25.0C on the 19th to a very cool 13.9C on the 26th under total cloud cover and a northeasterly breeze. The nighttime minima also gave us wide variations with a warm night on the 18th when a minimum of 16.8C was recorded that contrasted against 0.4C in the early hours of the 23rd when a ground frost occurred, if briefly. The average temperature for September was 13.8C, which was 0.4C below average but interestingly the same as in 2024

Tuesday 30th September
It was great to enjoy the greater warmth on Monday when the thermometer rose to a maximum of 18.3C at 15.09, however, this was still below average at -0.7C, but it was the warmest day since the 20th. There was very little wind movement, a maximum gust of 9mph was recorded, that enhanced the feel of the warmth. The past night was also a little warmer than the previous night with a minimum of 3.1C logged at 07.20 but this was still a significant 5.4C below average.

The start to Tuesday revealed radiation mist in the River Og valley when the moisture in the air condensed due to the low temperature but only minor, not affecting visibility, it quickly evaporated under the influence of the sun after sunrise in Marlborough at 07.05. There was broken cloud that allowed thin sunshine to lift the temperature a little to 3.9C at 08.00.

We have three more fine days ahead under the influence of the ridge of high pressure that is producing a light southwesterly air flow, which should result in a warmer day.

Looking ahead, the forecast track of Hurricane Humberto, as I mentioned yesterday, could take this storm further north than ex Hurricane Gabrielle last week, possibly much closer to Scotland. Whatever, its final position in relation to the UK the pressure will drop significantly as we approach Friday with much cloud and possible light precipitation. The centre of the storm is forecast to be very deep, and deepen at the end of the week, from an extremely low pressure of 956mb to 944mb, which will produce strong winds, possibly gales further to the northwest of the UK. The barometric pressure at 08.00 today was 1026.4mb. The experts wonder if Hurricane Humberto might link up with nearby Tropical Storm Imelda, which is also forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, reinforcing the very disturbed weather. The weekend could be very lively, especially during Saturday, with possible gusts of wind up to 40mph or 50mph! Currently, both weather systems are lying to the south of Bermuda.