Category: Commentary

Thursday 9th October
Wednesday morning, until after 13.00, was very dull with low cloud that brought brief bouts of light drizzle from time to time that was not measurable. Just after 13.00 the cloud began to thin resulting in an increasing amount of sunshine that by 15.00 made it feel very warm in the very light breeze, shortly after the temperature rose to a maximum of 17.9C at 15.14. This high was 3.0C above average. The sky having cleared the last afternoon meant a cool night, much cooler than forecast, as the warmth steadily dissipated into the atmosphere leading to a minimum of 3.6C at 06.42, which was 3.8C below average and made it the coldest night since the 29th September.

Thursday arrived with weak sunshine to begin the new day through thin cloud on the eastern horizon that had lifted the temperature to 4.1C by 08.00.

The high pressure to the west of the Bay of Biscay is beginning to influence our weather as the pressure slowly rises. It has risen 4mb since yesterday, with a reading of 1027.6mb, at 08.00 making it the highest barometric pressure since 30th September and continues to rise steadily. This anticyclone is likely to dominate our weather up to and after the weekend resulting in calm conditions with variable cloud due to the air stream having travelled over the sea picking up moisture on its travels. However, by the weekend the wind direction will veer into a northeasterly quarter that will take the edge off the maximum temperatures but still peak around the average for October.

There has been a significant divide among forecasters recently. The Met Office is predicting “pleasantly warm” weather conditions for the majority of October, providing an alternative forecast after some meteorologists suggested most of the UK will face a biter 0c Arctic chill in the coming weeks.

The Met Office have just issued the following press release. A pioneering new space weather forecasting modelling suite will enable operational modelling of the upper atmosphere for the first time in a major breakthrough for the UK atmospheric science. They state ” This delivers a world-beating capability that provides greater confidence and forecasting skill than any models currently in operation anywhere else in the world – it’s about protecting the systems we rely on every day, from aircraft communications to GPS in your phone, space weather can affect us all.”

Marlborough Mop Fair. The ‘big’ Mop Fair will be held on Saturday 18th October.

Wednesday 8th October
Tuesday brought us much less sunshine than on Monday due to greater cloud cover hence the maximum of 15.7C, logged at 15.12, was 3.9C down on the Monday high but still 0.8C above my long-term average. The cloudy conditions were due to the light southwesterly breeze having picked up moisture on its travels across the sea. The overnight minimum of 9.6C was also above average at +2.2C logged in the early hours at 00.22.

Wednesday arrived dull with thick, low cloud, thanks to the arrival of a cold front travelling down across the country. The humidity of 92% at 08.00 was the highest for almost a week. The rain radar at 07.30 indicated a patch of thicker cloud just arriving in our area with possible drizzle or light rain for a brief period. The temperature lifted a little after the low, rising to 12.2C by 08.00.

The barometric pressure has been almost constant over the past twenty-four hours and is forecast to build over the next few days and be resident until at least the weekend. Thus until Sunday at least, the weather will be calm with variable cloud cover and thus variable sunshine, however, daytime maximum will be around average whilst there is no likelihood of cold nights.

Marlborough Mop Fairs. Until the 19th century there was open country to the south of St Peter’s church and it seems likely this area was used for this event.

Tuesday 7th October
Monday was a glorious day with blue skies and almost wall to wall sunshine. The warmth built steadily during the morning and reached a maximum of 19.6C at 14.43, which was 4.7C above average, which made it the warmest day since 19th September. Thanks to a clear sky in the evening the Hunter’s Moon could be seen very clearly. The temperature trace overnight indicated a slow fall in temperature until a minimum of 9.1C was logged at 03.27, when presumably the cloud drifted over that then limited any further loss of warmth into the atmosphere, in fact the temperature then edged upwards almost 2C to reach 11.4C by 08.00.

Tuesday dawned dull and gloomy under thick, low cloud and calm conditions.

The barometric pressure is holding firm, however, the air stream has backed into the southwest and brought, not only warmer air but moist air from its travels over the Atlantic.

There seems to be some confidence that the anticyclone that has arrived to the west of the UK will build and settle over or near the UK for a week or so, if so we have a period of dry, calm conditions with variable sunshine. The forecast track of the Jet Stream is for it to bend to the north of the UK leaving us on the warmer side of the Tropics where these high pressure systems develop.

Marlborough Mop Fairs. These fairs happen twice in October, traditionally on the Saturdays on either side of October 11th, which is the date of the historic hiring fair that began in the 1200s.

Monday 6th October.
The residual weather from Storm Amy meant Sunday was at times breezy but dry. The sunshine lifted the thermometer to a maximum of 16.2C just after midday, precisely at 13.16, before variable cloud built up, this peak being 1.3C above average. The past night was unusual with regards to temperature as the minimum, usually logged around sunrise, was recorded just after midnight at 00.41 with a low of 7.2C, following that time the temperature began to slowly lift reaching 10.6C by 08.00.

Monday arrived bright with the sun shining strongly a short while after dawn having cleared a bank of cloud on the eastern horizon.

The barometric pressure continues to build from the new anticyclone, now having edged eastwards with its centre over western France. This high pressure will dominate our weather for the next two days with warmth and sunshine on a modest westerly breeze. However, a weather front, a cold front, will traverse the UK during Wednesday bringing cloudy conditions and cooler weather behind it but any precipitation is likely to be minimal, if at all.

Later in the week there is a strong possibility that another very large area of high-pressure will develop in mid-Atlantic that will again produce fine, sunny weather and average temperatures. Hopefully, there is more fine autumn weather ahead.

Hunter’s Moon. The Hunter’s Moon is the traditional name for the October full moon, occurring after the Harvest Moon, which gives extra light for nighttime hunting.The ‘Super Hunter’s Moon’ reaches peak illumination on 7th October at 04.48 in the UK. The historical significance for this full moon can be traced back to many cultures, particularly those of Native American tribes.

Marlborough Mop Fairs were granted to the town in line with a charter from King John in 1204.

Sunday 5th October
Although Saturday was a very windy day under the influence of Storm Amy it was a mainly dry day, a few spots on two occasions, not measurable, as most of the shower activity passed to the south of Marlborough. The wind was very gusty all day with a peak gust of 34mph, my station is just under the crest of the high ground in Marlborough. The thermometer reached a peak at 13.9C at 13.01 before falling back a little then stabilising around 11C during the evening. The eventual minimum of 9.1C was logged at 07.35 early Sunday, just after sunrise in Marlborough at 07.13.

Sunday arrived with glorious sunshine although this is likely to change into sunny intervals with variable cloud as the day progresses, we are still under the reach of Storm Amy and its disturbed weather.

Over the next few days, as Storm Amy eases eastwards across to Scandinavia, a minor high pressure system with ridge across the UK, currently just to the west of the Bay of Biscay, returning us to much calmer conditions with variable sunshine and the temperature rising, likely above average. These changes are already under way with the barometric pressure having already risen 18mb since yesterday with a reading of 1015.0mb at 08.00 after the very low-pressure of 997.2mb at 03.00 on Saturday.

Marlborough Mop Fairs are organised by the Showmen’s Guild of Great Britain. To announce the opening of the fair, the Mayor of Marlborough attends where they give a short speech.