Thursday 16th April
After a relatively calm and sunny start to Wednesday, once again cloud built up in the afternoon as a weather front crossed the area producing light rain, accompanied as forecast, by strengthening winds from the southwest. In fact the wind was very gusty all afternoon with a peak of 27mph at 13.44. A peak temperature of 15.3C was logged at 13.12, before the cloud increased, being 1.0C above average, whilst the low of 8.7C logged at 00.31, just after midnight, was 4.8C above average.
N.B. The live feed states that there was a gust of 34mph at 00.02. That was a temporary electronic glitch, that sadly happens occasionally, as the trace for the past twenty-four hours indicate the wind dropped away after 19.00 and peak movement in single figures after that time and during the early hours. This data is backed up by my older, reserve VP2 station, a metre away.
The rainfall was limited with a daily total of 3.0mm that took the monthly rainfall total to 12.8mm, being just 19% of my 42-year record. That is only part of the story as there has been an equivalent loss of rainfall of 34.6mm due to evaporation from ground sources and plant life, being almost three times that total, thus a deficit at this point in the month of around 22mm.
Thursday arrived with full cloud cover but by 08.00 the cloud had begun to thin with bursts of welcome sunshine, as a result the temperature had recovered to 10.4C by that time. However, it won’t last. Around midday another weather front, this time a cold front, will traverse the UK bringing with it the associated cloud and the strong possibility of shower activity from around noon. These are likely to be scattered, light and short lived.
As we look ahead, the forecast from the surface pressure charts continues to indicate that the pressure will build over the weekend with the centre of the high pressure migrating across and then to the north of the UK. This will result in the wind veering into the north and possible northeast as it relocates. As a result temperatures will return to a around average by day with a couple of colder early mornings on Sunday and Monday, so gardeners beware!
The Met Office released an interesting paper, which might have important effect on our future weather, looking some distance ahead
Pacific Ocean warming signals the possible return of a strong El Niño
Author: Met Office
15 April 2026
A significant shift is underway in the tropical Pacific, with clear signs that an El Niño event is developing.
El Niño is one of the most important drivers of year-to-year climate variability on Earth, influencing weather patterns across large parts of the globe as well as global temperature.
While it occurs far from the UK, its impacts can be felt worldwide.
What is El Niño?
El Niño refers to a sustained period of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It forms part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which alternates between warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases.
These events do not follow a fixed timetable. They can vary in strength and duration, and the gap between episodes is irregular. Each El Niño is unique, but stronger events tend to have more widespread and pronounced global effects.
Crossing important thresholds
Sea surface temperatures across a key region of the central Pacific have been rising steadily in recent months. Observations show that temperatures have crossed important thresholds that are used internationally to identify El Niño conditions.
Satellite measurements also reveal that sea levels in this part of the Pacific are increasing.
Warmer water expands, so rising sea level is another strong indicator that additional heat is building in the ocean. The pace and scale of these changes suggest a well-established warming signal rather than a short-lived fluctuation.
More of the article tomorrow.